Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

Aric Dunn · #1001 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 3:03 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:12z GFS Ensembles...

so what your saying is its going out to sea!! lol

j/k

#1002 Postby **brunota2003** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 3:04 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:this is almost scary.. the nogaps does a loop and from the looks of it.. build the ridge in quitre strong over the western atlantic and the east coast .. which would move bertha west towards NC ... and there is no trough in site.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

Yeesh...no escape to the north, and it moves as fast as the ridge wants it too? We've had a lot of rain here, so we do not need a slow moving Bertha!

#1003 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 3:04 pm

I wonder if the model algorithms hav issues when they initialize a movement of 0 knots. Divide by zeros, etc? Any Computer Science people want to take a guess?

I'd expect to see statement like

if (movement != 0){}

etc.

Just kidding of course....

PTrackerLA · #1004 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 3:07 pm

#1005 Postby **mutley** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 3:37 pm

That ensemble looks like someone made it up as a joke.

#1006 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 4:00 pm

mutley wrote:That ensemble looks like someone made it up as a joke.

I was thinking the same thing. Looks like someone gave a kid markers and said draw circles. :lol:

#1007 Postby **storms in NC** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 4:02 pm

brunota2003 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:this is almost scary.. the nogaps does a loop and from the looks of it.. build the ridge in quitre strong over the western atlantic and the east coast .. which would move bertha west towards NC ... and there is no trough in site.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

Yeesh...no escape to the north, and it moves as fast as the ridge wants it too? We've had a lot of rain here, so we do not need a slow moving Bertha!

We need some of that rain. Send it up to us. LOl
We have had some for the last few nights in all around 1/2 in I will take what we can get.

KWT · #1008 Postby **KWT** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 4:11 pm

Yeah its like a monkey has gone and drawm the forecasted track that the models show, quite amazing to see the loops of the GFS ensembles have.

Should be noted that some models only stall this system and others have this crawling to the N but eventually exiting out of the way.

#1009 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:35 pm

Look at that loop that 18z GFDL does.

WHXX04 KWBC 112328
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE BERTHA 02L

INITIAL TIME 18Z JUL 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 28.7 62.1 325./ 5.0
6 29.1 62.4 322./ 5.0
12 29.4 62.7 319./ 3.5
18 29.6 62.6 9./ 2.4
24 29.7 62.6 355./ 1.2
30 30.0 62.5 36./ 2.6
36 30.0 62.5 0./ .9
42 30.2 62.5 354./ 1.8
48 30.4 62.5 3./ 1.8
54 30.8 62.5 353./ 4.0
60 31.2 62.8 328./ 4.9
66 31.8 62.9 349./ 5.8
72 32.5 63.2 337./ 6.8
78 33.0 63.3 349./ 5.4
84 33.5 63.3 0./ 5.2
90 34.0 63.1 17./ 5.0
96 34.2 62.8 52./ 3.2
102 34.3 62.3 77./ 4.3
108 34.1 62.1 135./ 2.9
114 33.6 61.7 139./ 5.9
120 33.0 61.2 144./ 7.8
126 32.3 60.4 130./ 9.5

gotoman38 · #1010 Postby **gotoman38** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:59 pm

Wow, I know that Bermuda is built for open ocean storms... but 3 (or more?) days of battering from Bertha would suck the spirit of anyone!

#1011 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:56 pm

WHXX01 KWBC 120052
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0052 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080712 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080712 0000 080712 1200 080713 0000 080713 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.3N 62.3W 30.1N 62.5W 31.1N 62.5W 32.0N 62.6W
BAMD 29.3N 62.3W 30.2N 62.6W 31.0N 62.7W 31.7N 63.1W
BAMM 29.3N 62.3W 30.3N 62.6W 31.3N 62.8W 32.1N 63.3W
LBAR 29.3N 62.3W 30.3N 62.3W 31.2N 62.1W 32.1N 62.0W
SHIP 80KTS 83KTS 81KTS 78KTS
DSHP 80KTS 83KTS 81KTS 78KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080714 0000 080715 0000 080716 0000 080717 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.2N 62.8W 36.6N 62.1W 40.2N 61.3W 41.2N 61.5W
BAMD 32.6N 63.4W 34.6N 62.1W 35.9N 60.2W 34.3N 57.2W
BAMM 33.1N 63.7W 36.2N 62.9W 40.1N 61.2W 41.9N 59.5W
LBAR 32.9N 61.7W 34.6N 60.4W 36.6N 58.6W 37.0N 56.1W
SHIP 72KTS 57KTS 45KTS 39KTS
DSHP 72KTS 57KTS 45KTS 39KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.3N LONCUR = 62.3W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 28.3N LONM12 = 61.8W DIRM12 = 332DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 27.4N LONM24 = 61.0W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 75KT
CENPRS = 976MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 120NM

cpdaman · #1012 Postby **cpdaman** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 10:53 pm

0Z gfs so far same as 18Z thru 60 hours

#1013 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:28 pm

It's got Ophelia-itis.

#1014 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:29 pm

gotoman38 wrote::uarrow: Wow, I know that Bermuda is built for open ocean storms... but 3 (or more?) days of battering from Bertha would suck the spirit of anyone!

Yes, that is a huge problem. Day after day of top-end TS strength winds would really grate on you.

cheezyWXguy · #1015 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 11:45 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
gotoman38 wrote::uarrow: Wow, I know that Bermuda is built for open ocean storms... but 3 (or more?) days of battering from Bertha would suck the spirit of anyone!

Yes, that is a huge problem. Day after day of top-end TS strength winds would really grate on you.

yeah but if it were in the eye for those 3 days, then it would be during that time, like it wasnt even there..

#1016 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sat Jul 12, 2008 1:26 pm

801
WHXX01 KWBC 121819
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1819 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080712 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080712 1800 080713 0600 080713 1800 080714 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.9N 62.6W 30.7N 62.9W 31.7N 63.3W 33.0N 63.8W
BAMD 29.9N 62.6W 30.5N 63.0W 31.1N 63.8W 31.9N 64.6W
BAMM 29.9N 62.6W 30.6N 63.0W 31.3N 63.8W 32.4N 64.5W
LBAR 29.9N 62.6W 30.2N 62.4W 30.9N 62.8W 31.8N 62.9W
SHIP 65KTS 60KTS 57KTS 53KTS
DSHP 65KTS 60KTS 57KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080714 1800 080715 1800 080716 1800 080717 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.6N 64.0W 38.3N 64.4W 39.9N 65.8W 39.1N 67.4W
BAMD 33.2N 65.2W 37.1N 64.7W 39.3N 62.3W 37.5N 59.9W
BAMM 33.9N 65.0W 37.9N 65.0W 40.3N 64.5W 39.7N 64.0W
LBAR 33.0N 63.1W 35.6N 62.8W 37.5N 61.3W 38.4N 59.4W
SHIP 49KTS 44KTS 46KTS 42KTS
DSHP 49KTS 44KTS 46KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.9N LONCUR = 62.6W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 62.5W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 28.8N LONM24 = 62.1W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 80KT
CENPRS = 983MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 120NM

$$
NNNN

#1017 Postby **HURAKAN** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:03 am

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      BERTHA  AL022008  07/13/08  06 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    65    64    63    62    60    57    53    49    47    44    42    40    34
V (KT) LAND       65    64    63    62    60    57    53    49    47    44    42    40    34
V (KT) LGE mod    65    65    65    64    64    60    56    53    51    49    48    46    45

SHEAR (KTS)        7    10    14    18    16    11    12    20    28    31    40    23    20
SHEAR DIR        342     2   349     4    23    27    24     8     6   358   341   328   322
SST (C)         27.5  27.5  27.5  27.2  26.9  26.1  25.5  25.0  24.7  24.6  25.1  25.3  25.3
POT. INT. (KT)   125   125   127   124   121   113   107   104   101   101   105   105   105
ADJ. POT. INT.   101   102   105   104   102    95    90    88    86    86    89    88    87
200 MB T (C)   -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C)      11    10    11    11    11    10    10     8     6     5     5     5     6
700-500 MB RH     35    35    34    31    31    34    38    44    53    56    58    61    60
GFS VTEX (KT)     18    19    19    20    19    17    16    17    18    20    21    22    18
850 MB ENV VOR   -87   -83   -97  -114  -117  -124  -129  -108   -63    13    96   123   115
200 MB DIV         8    -9     0     4    14     4     6    30    10    18    10     8   -17
LAND (KM)       1304  1314  1323  1342  1300  1217  1129  1031   979  1039  1231  1315  1349
LAT (DEG N)     29.8  29.9  30.0  30.5  31.0  32.3  33.4  34.6  35.5  35.6  34.6  34.2  34.2
LONG(DEG W)     62.5  62.6  62.6  62.8  63.0  63.3  63.0  62.1  60.7  59.0  57.0  55.5  54.5
STM SPEED (KT)     0     1     3     5     6     6     6     7     7     8     8     5     4
HEAT CONTENT       7     7     7     5     3     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):  0/  0      CX,CY:   0/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  65            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  522  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  21.2 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  59.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL         -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -6. -10. -13. -16. -19. -20. -21. -23.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   7.   7.   7.   5.   4.   3.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -4.  -6.  -7.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.   0.   1.   1.  -2.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -9. -10. -10.  -9.  -8.  -6.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       0.  -1.  -1.  -3.  -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. -24. -30.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT      -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)     -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -8. -12. -16. -18. -21. -23. -25. -31.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022008     BERTHA 07/13/08  06 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :  13.1 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.1
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   3.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  38.0 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  55.8 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.1
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  16.7 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   5.8 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=     4% is   0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=     3% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022008     BERTHA 07/13/08  06 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

KWT · #1018 Postby **KWT** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 3:24 am

SHIPS prog some very high shear around 96hrs, 40kts would give the finishing blow to this system if it were to happen.

#1019 Postby **dizzyfish** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 5:51 am

#1020 Postby **RL3AO** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 2:31 pm

405
WHXX01 KWBC 131820
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1820 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA (AL022008) 20080713 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080713 1800 080714 0600 080714 1800 080715 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.1N 63.0W 31.1N 63.8W 32.4N 64.6W 33.8N 65.1W
BAMD 30.1N 63.0W 30.7N 64.4W 31.9N 66.0W 33.6N 67.4W
BAMM 30.1N 63.0W 30.8N 64.2W 31.9N 65.4W 33.4N 66.4W
LBAR 30.1N 63.0W 30.7N 63.3W 31.9N 63.7W 33.3N 63.9W
SHIP 55KTS 51KTS 50KTS 49KTS
DSHP 55KTS 51KTS 50KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080715 1800 080716 1800 080717 1800 080718 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 35.6N 65.4W 37.5N 65.6W 35.4N 67.2W 32.7N 69.1W
BAMD 36.1N 67.8W 40.2N 65.4W 40.2N 63.3W 37.3N 62.3W
BAMM 35.4N 66.7W 37.9N 65.9W 36.4N 66.8W 34.2N 68.1W
LBAR 34.9N 63.6W 38.2N 62.1W 40.2N 60.2W 40.2N 54.6W
SHIP 50KTS 52KTS 55KTS 51KTS
DSHP 50KTS 52KTS 55KTS 51KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.1N LONCUR = 63.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 29.8N LONM12 = 62.5W DIRM12 = 240DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 29.9N LONM24 = 62.5W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 991MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 120NM

$$
NNNN

Tropical Storm Bertha Model Runs

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