INVEST 93L in Central Caribbean

[Gustywind]

The inflow out of the south was a hint that it could have a "LLC". Now theres west wind, but anyways it should not have much time.

Yeah but i don' like that: convection is lacking, where are you convection??!!!

[Eyewall]

This is a TD and should be called one in the morning.

[Category 5]

This is a TD and should be called one in the morning.

Please support this claim with some facts.

This should be interesting. Did your computer modle tell you that?

[Eyewall]

I am sorry I was talking about 92L but I just realized that I was on the wrong board sorry.

[Fego]

Shear is having a party with Invest 93L

[Gustywind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/ir4-l.jpg
Nicely sheared given the sat pic.... grey sad, and moist weather here in Guadeloupe this morning , i had a small and extremely brief episode of showers at midnight nothing more , added to calm winds, as a classical night....

[Gustywind]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030554
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER... LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LEEWARD AND NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY.

[cycloneye]

This is what we expect here later today and tonight as the wave moves mainly south of Puerto Rico.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST THU JUL 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAVE BEEN
PUSHING ACROSS THE VI AND SECTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...AND FOR TPW TO CONTINUE ON AN UPWARD TREND...AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS
MORNING...CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME CIRCULATION
AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EVIDENT WITH THIS WAVE...EXPECT THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF IT TO INHIBIT ANY FURTHER
ORGANIZATION AS IT CONTINUES WEST NORTHWESTWARD. LATEST GFS AND
NAM HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT ANALYSIS OF THIS WAVE AS IT
PASSES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RAIN BANDS AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MADE SOME
MODIFICATIONS TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT TIMING OF THIS
WAVE...AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A BIT OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...WHICH PUTS FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE. ONCE THIS WAVE PUSHES WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...EXPECT
A MODIFIED SAL TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF TUTT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT OPTED NOT TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY
JUST YET.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 030556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0530 UTC.

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 61W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. A WEAK LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG
THE AXIS NEAR 14N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY WITHIN
90-120 NM N/NE OF THE LOW CENTER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THIS ACTIVITY. BEHIND THE AXIS...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE SE
AND INCREASED TO 20 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN UPPER
ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

And they forgot to mentionned briefly a wnw shift at St Lucia yesterday night a 9PM with 6 mph to show how this was very tenacious, and exibits a nice circulation....cuhow lucky we are, conditions were not conducive to support more than "a susipicious Invest "tkanks to the shear......

[Gustywind]

This is what we expect here later today and tonight as the wave moves mainly south of Puerto Rico.

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 030903
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST THU JUL 3 2008

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAVE BEEN
PUSHING ACROSS THE VI AND SECTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE DURING THE LATE MORNING
HOURS...AND FOR TPW TO CONTINUE ON AN UPWARD TREND...AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS
MORNING...CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA. WHILE SOME CIRCULATION
AND SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EVIDENT WITH THIS WAVE...EXPECT THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF IT TO INHIBIT ANY FURTHER
ORGANIZATION AS IT CONTINUES WEST NORTHWESTWARD. LATEST GFS AND
NAM HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT ANALYSIS OF THIS WAVE AS IT
PASSES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH GFS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP. EITHER WAY...SHOULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME RAIN BANDS AND GUSTY WINDS MOVING
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MADE SOME
MODIFICATIONS TO SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT TIMING OF THIS
WAVE...AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A BIT OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES...WHICH PUTS FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST NAM
GUIDANCE. ONCE THIS WAVE PUSHES WEST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...EXPECT
A MODIFIED SAL TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. A SURFACE REFLECTION OF TUTT MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT OPTED NOT TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUNDAY
JUST YET.

Hummm ok Cycloneye, strictly nothing here maybe drizzle during the night, i saw this morning that the road near my are were slightly wet, let's see what happens in vicinity of your area....

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031048
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES
ALONG 62W/63W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A WEAK LOW OR
VORTICITY
MAX IS SITUATED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 14N. CONVECTION HAS
INCREASED AND EXPANDED SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT IT
REMAINS DISORGANIZED FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 61W-65W. GUSTY WINDS
ARE LIKELY IN THIS ACTIVITY. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO AN UPPER
ENVIRONMENT NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

[chadtm80]

[NDG]

Very little if any cyclonic swirl left that it had yesterday evening. Strong winds both at UL and LL have really disrupted any little complete cyclonic circulation it had.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Bastardi thinks this is a Western Gulf homebrew candidate. GFS and other models don't think so, but GFS does show this bringing an impressive surge of moisture towards Louisiana.

[Category 5]

Say bye bye!

It won't even make it to the western gulf.

[KWT]

No it won't though the wave axis may make it into the gulf region eventually in 5-7 days time and conditions may be better there.

[Steve]

>>Bastardi thinks this is a Western Gulf homebrew candidate. GFS and other models don't think so, but GFS does show this bringing an impressive surge of moisture towards Louisiana.

Clearly. The moisture will be there, and whether it's something organized or just a surge of tropical moisture, the ECMWF sees something off the UT Coast/SW LA Coast in a few days.

FWIW, discount all the models except the UKMET, NOGAPS and ECMWF when it comes to TD #2. For those of you new at this stuff, you can see the general problem they can't fix with the GFS and its suite. That model (along with the CMC) are moving something straight through the heart of the giant high pressure across the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. This is an impossibility if they have the strength of the high accurately portrayed. It's what we call "model bias."



Steve

[KWT]

Steve, yeah surface moisture will be supplied by the wave as it comes in, will be interesting to see how convectivly active it is.

Also Steve as I said in the other thread don't look at the surface look at 500mbs, weakness is clearly there and indeed there is a weak upper low in the mid-Atlantic...anyway thats for another topic!

[Frank2]

Admin, just a suggestion, but, I'd take down that 93L computer model plot on the home page, lest someone sees it and incorrectly thinks that it means something significant for Florida or the Gulf Coast, especially since, per the TWO:

A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

Again, just a suggestion, lest someone thinks S2K equals JB...

LOL

[Steve]

>>Also Steve as I said in the other thread don't look at the surface look at 500mbs, weakness is clearly there and indeed there is a weak upper low in the mid-Atlantic...anyway thats for another topic!

I did. And I saw it. But that high is massive at the surface, and with a weakening system, no way it intrudes. Time will tell if the high is weaker and Bertha is stronger, vice versa or neither. I hear you either way.

>>Admin, just a suggestion, but, I'd take down that 93L computer model plot on the home page, lest someone sees it and incorrectly thinks that it means something significant for Florida or the Gulf Coast, especially since, per the TWO:

It says "93L." No long time readers are going to confuse that with Hurricane Wilma. That's like suggesting they take away cars because someone might bowl over a crowd. JMO, and I also hear what you're saying. But information is information.

Steve