ATL: Tropical Storm BERTHA advisories

[Chacor]

Tropical Depression Two-L has formed near Cape Verde. NHC advisories:

735
WTNT22 KNHC 030858
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 22.7W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 22.7W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 22.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.0N 24.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 27.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.7N 30.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 15.8N 33.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.5N 40.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 20.0N 46.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 51.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 22.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Chacor]

WTNT32 KNHC 030858
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 22.7 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...12.6 N...22.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Chacor]

WTNT42 KNHC 030859
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO NOW BE CONSIDERED
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG
BURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS NEAR OR JUST
WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. BANDING FEATURES ARE
ALSO BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM LATE YESTERDAY THAT SHOWED SOME RELIABLE 25-30 KT WINDS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE
GFS...SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF GENESIS IN THIS AREA OVER A WEEK
AGO...A REMARKABLE ACHIEVEMENT.

MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING IS STEERING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST...ABOUT 285/8. THIS RIDGING GETS STRONGER DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD MOTION BY LATE
TOMORROW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK UNTIL
THE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY REACHES A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALONG ABOUT 50W-55W AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS
THAT SHOW THE STRONGEST REFLECTION OF THE CYCLONE...SUCH AS THE
GFS/HWRF/GFDL...TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...
WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF MODELS KEEP A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND
OF THE FIVE MODELS ABOVE BUT JUST A SHADE TO THE LEFT OF THAT
CONSENSUS.

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS NEAR THIS SYSTEM...SO THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR ON THE
FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS THE COOLER WATERS AND MORE
STABLE AIR IN ITS PATH. AFTER ABOUT 24 HR ON THE NHC TRACK...SSTS
DROP BELOW 26C AND STAY BELOW THAT THRESHOLD FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
THEREAFTER SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY AND MOST GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING STRENGTHENING
AT THE START AND END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN BETWEEN WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE COOLEST SSTS. THE
SHIPS/GFDL MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS
SYSTEM...MAKING IT A HURRICANE WITHIN 5 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 12.6N 22.7W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 13.0N 24.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 13.8N 27.2W 45 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 14.7N 30.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 15.8N 33.3W 45 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 17.5N 40.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 20.0N 46.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 23.0N 51.0W 55 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Meso]

[Chacor]

187
WTNT22 KNHC 031452
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1500 UTC THU JUL 03 2008

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BERTHA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 24.7W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 24.7W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 24.2W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.8N 26.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.7N 29.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.6N 32.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.6N 35.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 48.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 25.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 24.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Chacor]

431
WTNT32 KNHC 031454
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
...OUTER RAINBANDS AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BERTHA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.7 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES...310 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

WHILE THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY...OUTER RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...13.3 N...24.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

Nobody posted the 5 PM advisory in its thread so here it is:

802
WTNT32 KNHC 032037
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST THU JUL 03 2008

...SQUALLY WEATHER MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BERTHA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...165 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN MOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER...OUTER RAINBANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...13.6 N...25.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

987
WTNT22 KNHC 032035
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
2100 UTC THU JUL 03 2008

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BERTHA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 25.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 25.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 25.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.1N 27.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 15.0N 30.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.0N 34.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.9N 37.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.8N 44.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 25.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 25.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

222
WTNT42 KNHC 032039
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA HAVE WARMED THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...BANDING FEATURES REMAIN WELL-DEFINED IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS. A SHIP
LOCATED ABOUT 45 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 1700 UTC REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 KT. THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE 35 KT...WHICH REMAINS THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY.

THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED AS BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREAFTER...A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN ABOUT 50W-60W WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE
FUTURE TRACK OF BERTHA. THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND HWRF MODELS DEPICT
A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER BERTHA...KEEPING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS AND GFDL MAINTAIN A STRONGER
TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT TURNS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT BERTHA WILL BE STRONG AND DEEP
ENOUGH TO BE STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE
GFDL AND THE GFS.

SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT BERTHA IS FORECAST TO TRACK
OVER SSTS OF 25 DEGREES C....WHICH IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE SSTS ALONG THE TRACK ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE BUT SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER LATER IN
THE PERIOD. THE SHIPS... LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS PREDICT BERTHA TO
REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 3-5 DAYS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS UNCHANGED AND CONSERVATIVE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING
FACTORS.

THE CENTER OF BERTHA SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TONIGHT...HOWEVER OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 13.6N 25.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 14.1N 27.6W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 15.0N 30.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 16.0N 34.2W 45 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 16.9N 37.7W 50 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 18.8N 44.5W 55 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 49.5W 55 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 25.0N 52.5W 55 KT

[cycloneye]

40 kts moving west.

890
WTNT32 KNHC 040231
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST THU JUL 03 2008

...BERTHA INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...

INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BERTHA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.0 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

OUTER RAINBANDS COULD CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...13.4 N...27.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME


WTNT42 KNHC 040231
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2008

BERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS
COURTESY OF A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT BEGAN AROUND 1900
UTC. BANDING FEATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE PROMINENT IN BOTH
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BASED ON THIS
TREND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT WHICH IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT
FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT BUT OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. SUCH
CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND KEEPS BERTHA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH OUT OF
RESPECT OF THE HWRF MODEL. BEYOND 72 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT.

A SERIES OF VERY USEFUL MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATES THAT BERTHA IS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
MORE TOWARDS THE WEST...280/12. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE RECENT
BURST OF CONVECTION IS CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO RESPOND TO THE LARGE
MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP
BERTHA ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS. THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS BERTHA REACHES A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. EVEN
THOUGH BOTH THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION IN THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THESE MODELS KEEP A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER
CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES BERTHA WILL REMAIN A DEEP
SYSTEM...A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IS INDICATED BEYOND 72 HOURS.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALBEIT A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION RELOCATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/0300Z 13.4N 27.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 13.8N 29.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 14.6N 32.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 15.5N 35.9W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 16.6N 39.4W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/0000Z 18.5N 45.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 08/0000Z 21.5N 51.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 09/0000Z 25.5N 54.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 041448
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1500 UTC FRI JUL 04 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 29.7W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 29.7W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 29.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 15.7N 32.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.5N 35.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.2N 39.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.9N 42.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 24.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 29.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

918
WTNT32 KNHC 041449
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM AST FRI JUL 04 2008

...BERTHA A LITTLE STRONGER...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 29.7 WEST OR ABOUT 385
MILES...625 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TODAY OR TONIGHT...
BUT SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN A DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.9 N...29.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

336
WTNT42 KNHC 041449
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BERTHA CONSISTS OF A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A
LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
THAT WAS RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AROUND 45 KT. THE
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGE LITTLE SINCE THAT TIME AND THE
LATEST DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT A 45 KT
INITIAL INTENSITY.

BERTHA WILL BE PASSING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.
BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS SSTS INCREASE AND THE SHEAR
REMAINS LOW. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE
THEREAFTER...SO THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS THE INTENSITY JUST SHY OF
HURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER....IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST BERTHA TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS.

BERTHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A LITTLE FASTER
PACE...290/14. THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SHIFT WESTWARD...BUT THERE REMAINS TWO DISTINCT ENVELOPES...ONE
THAT CONSISTS OF THE HWRF AND GFDL THAT TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND DAY 3....AND THE OTHER WHICH KEEPS BERTHA
ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD TO REFLECT THE SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 14.9N 29.7W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 15.7N 32.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 16.5N 35.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 17.2N 39.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 17.9N 42.9W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1200Z 19.5N 49.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 08/1200Z 21.5N 54.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 09/1200Z 24.0N 59.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 042031
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 31.6W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 31.6W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 30.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.2N 34.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 16.8N 37.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.4N 41.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 45.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.2N 51.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 31.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
WTNT32 KNHC 042031
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST FRI JUL 04 2008

...BERTHA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.6 WEST OR ABOUT 505
MILES...815 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST TONIGHT...BUT SOME
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...15.5 N...31.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

138
WTNT42 KNHC 042030
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008

BERTHA HAD A RATHER RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND
MID-DAY...HOWEVER...SINCE THEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION WITH VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS BERTHA TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATERS.
THEREAFTER...THE SSTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE PROJECTED
TRACK...HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE 3-5
DAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KEEPS BERTHA'S INTENSITY BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO SHOW BERTHA REACHING HURRICANE
STATUS...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE...AND IS IN
LINE WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

BERTHA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OR 290/16. LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS AS THE STORM REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.
THE GFDL TRACK HAS NOW SHIFTED WESTWARD AND HAS JOINED THE REMAINDER
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH STILL INSISTS ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT HAS SHIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 3-5... IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 15.5N 31.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 16.2N 34.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 16.8N 37.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 17.4N 41.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 17.9N 45.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 19.2N 51.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 21.5N 56.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 23.5N 60.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[Aric Dunn]

only 23.5 north out 5 days/...

this one
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.


last package
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 24.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

[gatorcane]

00
WTNT42 KNHC 042030
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008

BERTHA HAD A RATHER RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND
MID-DAY...HOWEVER...SINCE THEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION WITH VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS BERTHA TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATERS.
THEREAFTER...THE SSTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE PROJECTED
TRACK...HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE 3-5
DAY TIME PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KEEPS BERTHA'S INTENSITY BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO SHOW BERTHA REACHING HURRICANE
STATUS...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE...AND IS IN
LINE WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

BERTHA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OR 290/16. LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
2-3 DAYS AS THE STORM REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.
THE GFDL TRACK HAS NOW SHIFTED WESTWARD AND HAS JOINED THE REMAINDER
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH STILL INSISTS ON A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT HAS SHIFTED FARTHER
SOUTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 3-5... IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST
MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 15.5N 31.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 16.2N 34.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 16.8N 37.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/0600Z 17.4N 41.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1800Z 17.9N 45.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 07/1800Z 19.2N 51.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 08/1800Z 21.5N 56.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 23.5N 60.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 050234
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0300 UTC SAT JUL 05 2008


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 33.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 33.5W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 32.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.4N 36.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.0N 39.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.6N 43.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.1N 47.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 33.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

000
WTNT32 KNHC 050234
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST FRI JUL 04 2008

...BERTHA CONTINUING WESTWARD...STILL NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LAND...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 33.5 WEST OR ABOUT 630
MILES...1015 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...16.0 N...33.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME


019
WTNT42 KNHC 050234
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008

MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS INDICATES THAT BERTHA
HAS BEEN STAIR-STEPPING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OSCILLATING
BETWEEN A WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH EACH NEW
CONVECTIVE BURST. IRONING ALL THIS OUT YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 280/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A STRONG RIDGE
TO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. WHILE MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE
NORTH OF BERTHA IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION OF BERTHA DUE TO A WEAKER AND
SHALLOWER DEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE EXCEPTION IS THE HWRF
WHICH FORECASTS A STRONGER AND DEEPER BERTHA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD
BEYOND 72 HOURS DUE TO THE WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
NUDGED A LITTLE WESTWARD BUT IS STILL NORTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SINCE ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH WOULD ALLOW BERTHA TO
RESPOND TO THE DEEPER AND MORE NORTHWARD STEERING.

BERTHA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN WITH THE
LATEST BURST BEGINNING AROUND 2300 UTC. AVAILABLE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
STRENGTH WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY HELD AT 45 KT. BERTHA IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THEREAFTER...SSTS
GRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK AND BERTHA IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST SO ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT IS SHOWN
BEYOND 72 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 16.0N 33.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 16.4N 36.2W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 17.0N 39.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 17.6N 43.6W 50 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 18.1N 47.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 20.0N 53.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 22.0N 58.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 10/0000Z 24.0N 63.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[gotoman38]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 050838
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST SAT JUL 05 2008

...BERTHA SPEEDING ALONG OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST OR ABOUT 750
MILES...1205 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH...33
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BERTHA WILL BE ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES BY TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...16.5 N...35.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
000
WTNT22 KNHC 050838
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 35.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 35.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 34.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.6N 41.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.2N 45.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 49.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.5N 56.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 22.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 24.5N 66.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 35.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
000
WTNT42 KNHC 050900
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008

BERTHA IS PASSING OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ROUGHLY 25
DEGREES CELSIUS...ABOUT THE COOLEST THE CYCLONE HAS ENCOUNTERED YET
DURING THE USUAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...AND IT HAS BEEN
STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 35-45 KT...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE
THE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT
FOR NOW. DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BERTHA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO
STRENGTHEN AS THE UNDERLYING WATER TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM BY
ABOUT A DEGREE CELSIUS PER DAY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF
THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72
HOURS...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM REACHING 65 KT BY THEN...WHILE HWRF
AND GFDL ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
IN PEAKING AT 60 KT. ONE SHOULD NOT PAY TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO THE
EXACT INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER. THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED
PROBABILITY TABLE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INDICATES
ROUGHLY EQUAL CHANCES OF BERTHA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR A
HURRICANE AT 3 TO 5 DAYS. WHETHER OR NOT BERTHA BECOMES A
HURRICANE WOULD SEEM TO DEPEND ON HOW WELL IT SURVIVES ITS STAY
OVER COOLER WATERS...AND JUST HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR IMPACTS THE
CYCLONE ONCE IT REACHES THE WARMER WATERS...AND BOTH OF THOSE
FACTORS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW.

A COUPLE OF RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM AMSU AND AMSR-E PROVIDE
THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/18. OVERALL THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES NO STRONG INDICATION THAT BERTHA
WILL DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT 55W IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME
LESS PRONOUNCED AND TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRACKS SHOW BERTHA BYPASSING THIS
FEATURE WITH JUST A SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.
THE HWRF IS THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL CURRENTLY CALLING FOR BERTHA
TO TURN NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING 60W. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
HARDLY BUDGED ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE LEFT AT DAYS 3 THROUGH
5. THIS NEW TRACK IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE GFDL...GFS...AND
ECMWF...BUT THE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AS
REFLECTED BY THE CONTINUING LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG-RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 16.5N 35.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 17.0N 38.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 17.6N 41.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 18.2N 45.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 19.0N 49.3W 60 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 20.5N 56.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 22.5N 61.0W 60 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 24.5N 66.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

000
FONT12 KNHC 050839
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0900 UTC SAT JUL 05 2008

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

Code: Select all

VALID TIME   18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       1       3       4       4
TROP DEPRESSION  6       7       7       7       8       9      14
TROPICAL STORM  90      78      65      51      46      45      42
HURRICANE        4      15      28      42      43      43      40
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        3      13      24      31      29      28      24
HUR CAT 2        X       1       3       7       9      10      11
HUR CAT 3        1       1       1       2       4       4       3
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       1       1       1       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    50KT    55KT    60KT    60KT    60KT    60KT

II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

Code: Select all

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)

BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
BARBUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)


$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 051449
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 37.3W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 75SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 37.3W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 36.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.0N 40.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.6N 43.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.4N 47.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.1N 51.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.8N 57.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 45SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 37.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

WTNT42 KNHC 051452
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008

WHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BERTHA
STRUGGLED A LITTLE BIT...HOWEVER NOW THAT IT IS HEADING FOR
SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS BERTHA APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION
JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BETWEEN 35-45 KT AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING AS SSTS ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT NOW
PREDICTS BERTHA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS.
THEREAFTER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AMOUNT OF PREDICTED
SHEAR...THE INTENSITY IS HELD A LITTLE BELOW THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND
GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOW ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.

BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6-12
HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/18. A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP BERTHA ON A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING AT A RATHER BRISK PACE. THERE
REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREADS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS A WEAKER TROPICAL
CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD. THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED VERY CLOSE TO
THE NHC TRACK...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1500Z 16.6N 37.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 17.0N 40.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 17.6N 43.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 18.4N 47.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 19.1N 51.2W 60 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 20.8N 57.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 23.0N 62.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 25.0N 67.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

WTNT22 KNHC 052033
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
2100 UTC SAT JUL 05 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 39.3W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 75SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 39.3W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 38.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 42.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.8N 45.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.5N 49.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.3N 52.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.8N 58.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 45SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.0N 67.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 39.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

WTNT32 KNHC 052034
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM AST SAT JUL 05 2008

...BERTHA RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1015
MILES...1635 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1570
MILES...2530 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. ON THIS TRACK BERTHA WILL REMAIN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...16.7 N...39.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[SouthFloridawx]

[cycloneye]

WTNT42 KNHC 052040
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008

BERTHA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. THE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 45
KT...WHICH REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE
PROJECTED PATH. BERTHA IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 25 DEGREES
CELSIUS...BUT THE SSTS WILL BE INCREASING BY ABOUT ONE DEGREE PER
DAY DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AT
LEAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT PROJECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE
THEREAFTER. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH SHOWED BERTHA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT
3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE HWRF...
GFDL...LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.

BERTHA CONTINUES RACING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 275/18.
A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN A DEEPER AND STRONGER
BERTHA TURN THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE...THE MODELS THAT DEPICT A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE
CONTINUE TO TRACK IT WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THAT BERTHA WILL REMAIN
DEEP ENOUGH TO DECELERATE DUE TO THE WEAKER RIDGE. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVER POSE A THREAT
TO ANY LAND AREAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 16.7N 39.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 17.1N 42.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 17.8N 45.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 18.5N 49.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 19.3N 52.8W 60 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 20.8N 58.1W 65 KT
96HR VT 09/1800Z 22.5N 63.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 10/1800Z 25.0N 67.0W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[cycloneye]

436
WTNT22 KNHC 060232
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
0300 UTC SUN JUL 06 2008


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 41.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 75SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 41.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 40.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.4N 44.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 30SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.1N 47.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 18.9N 51.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 19.6N 53.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...125NE 75SE 45SW 125NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 41.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

WTNT32 KNHC 060232
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM AST SAT JUL 05 2008

...BERTHA RACING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1140
MILES...1835 KM...WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND ABOUT 1445
MILES...2325 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...17.0 N...41.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

599
WTNT42 KNHC 060234
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BERTHA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY...45 KT.
BERTHA IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS AND THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE 27 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM IN 36-48 HOURS.
SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN
BEYOND 48 HOURS DUE TO SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND THE RESULTING
DIFFERENCES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BERTHA MIGHT EXPERIENCE.
A TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH WOULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING WHILE
A TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES BERTHA INTO AN AREA
WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
BEYOND 72 HOURS. THIS NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE
AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS.

BERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
280/18. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
36-48 HOURS COURTESY OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THEREAFTER...
THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND TRACK MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...THE SPREAD IN
THE TRACK MODELS SPAN NEARLY 1300 MILES AT DAY 5 WITH THE UKMET
MODEL KEEPING BERTHA HEADED WESTWARD AND THE HWRF TURNING THE
CYCLONE NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN
BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OF BERTHA. ACCORDINGLY...IT
IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL OR WILL NOT POSE A
THREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 17.0N 41.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 17.4N 44.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 18.1N 47.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 18.9N 51.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 19.6N 53.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 21.5N 59.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 10/0000Z 23.5N 63.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 67.5W 65 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Chacor]

951
WTNT32 KNHC 060842
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022008
500 AM AST SUN JUL 06 2008

...BERTHA APPROACHING WARMER WATERS AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.2 WEST OR ABOUT 1310
MILES...2110 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR. A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS BERTHA REMAINS OVER
THE WATERS OF THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVENTUALLY AFFECT ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.3 N...43.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB