WPAC: TS Kalmaegi (JTWC: TS 08W)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
bob rulz
- Category 5
- Posts: 1667
- Age: 34
- Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
- Location: Salt Lake City, Utah
Re: Re:
Chacor wrote:bob rulz wrote:It's now 08W.NONAME on NRL.
EDIT: Has it been this way for a while? Shouldn't the thread name be changed?
It has. JTWC issued warning #1 at 09z.
Ah, okay, so just recently. I knew something had changed.
Sorry, with three different agencies all forecasting for the West Pacific I always get confused; I saw that the JMA and PAGASA had declared it a tropical depression. JTWC is the official one, right? Sorry, basic question I know. I didn't keep very close track of the tropics last year and I've forgotten some things, haha.
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-
P.K.
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 5149
- Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
- Location: Watford, England
- Contact:
Re: TD 08W - SE of Taiwan (JMA: TD; PAGASA: TD Helen; TCFA)
The JMA is the RSMC for this region.
WTPQ20 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 19.0N 124.8E FAIR
MOVE SSW 07KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 19.3N 124.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 19.0N 124.8E FAIR
MOVE SSW 07KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 19.3N 124.2E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
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318
WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 18.9N 124.3E POOR
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 19.3N 123.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
Still a 30 kt TD from JTWC. JTWC prog reasoning:
WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, REACHING WARNING STRENGTH AT 140600Z. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OUTFLOW TO THE WEST REMAINS
FAVORABLE AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE.
B. THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES,
AS WELL AS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AND A PARTIAL 140924Z QUIKSCAT
IMAGE SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A 141200Z PGTW POSITION FIX AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 140937Z TRMM IMAGE. TD 08W HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE
LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS, WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE WEST. THE CURRENT BEST
TRACK MOVEMENT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES DUE TO A
SLIGHT RELOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT CON-
SOLIDATES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TD 08W.
B. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD PRIOR
TO TAU 24, AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING IN-
FLUENCE. THIS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL INDUCE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD TRACK MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST. TD 08W
WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
BEFORE TRACKING MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR TAU 120 IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH TD 08W AND WEAKEN THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE. TD 08W WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96 DUE TO THE COMPETING
FACTORS OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 96, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE TD 08W TO WEAKEN. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
WTPQ20 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 18.9N 124.3E POOR
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 19.3N 123.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =
Still a 30 kt TD from JTWC. JTWC prog reasoning:
WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 02//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W HAS SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS, REACHING WARNING STRENGTH AT 140600Z. THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED MOSTLY TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO
LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OUTFLOW TO THE WEST REMAINS
FAVORABLE AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE.
B. THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES,
AS WELL AS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AND A PARTIAL 140924Z QUIKSCAT
IMAGE SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KNOTS. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A 141200Z PGTW POSITION FIX AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 140937Z TRMM IMAGE. TD 08W HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE
LIES EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AXIS, WITH FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, PARTICULARLY TOWARD THE WEST. THE CURRENT BEST
TRACK MOVEMENT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES DUE TO A
SLIGHT RELOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT CON-
SOLIDATES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TD 08W.
B. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD PRIOR
TO TAU 24, AS IT REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 24, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST WILL STRENGTHEN AND BECOME THE DOMINATE STEERING IN-
FLUENCE. THIS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE WILL INDUCE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD TRACK MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST. TD 08W
WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LOW
TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD
BEFORE TRACKING MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR TAU 120 IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH, WHICH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH TD 08W AND WEAKEN THE EASTERN STEERING RIDGE. TD 08W WILL
MAINTAIN INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96 DUE TO THE COMPETING
FACTORS OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. BEYOND TAU 96, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE TD 08W TO WEAKEN. THE
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK AND
FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE.
FORECAST TEAM: ALPHA//
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PAGASA upgraded to TS Helen. JTWC/JMA still at TD.
Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOUR
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Storm Helen
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Monday, 14 July 2008
Tropical Storm "Helen" has maintained its strength as it continues to threaten Northern Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 270 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.7ºN, 124.4ºE
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center with gusts up to 80 km/h
Movement: west slowly
Forecast Positions / Outlook: Tuesday evening:
190 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Wednesday evening:
50 kms North of Aparri, Cagayan
260 kms West Northwest of Aparri, Cagayan
Thursday evening:
190 kms Northwest of Laoag City
Severe Weather Bulletin Number FOUR
Tropical Cyclone Alert: Tropical Storm Helen
Issued at 11:00 p.m., Monday, 14 July 2008
Tropical Storm "Helen" has maintained its strength as it continues to threaten Northern Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 270 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Coordinates: 18.7ºN, 124.4ºE
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 65 kph near the center with gusts up to 80 km/h
Movement: west slowly
Forecast Positions / Outlook: Tuesday evening:
190 kms East of Aparri, Cagayan
Wednesday evening:
50 kms North of Aparri, Cagayan
260 kms West Northwest of Aparri, Cagayan
Thursday evening:
190 kms Northwest of Laoag City
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-
senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 41
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
Svr TS Kalmaegi (0807/08W) Weather Charts
Ensure you've refreshed for the latest maps!
Updates hourly at :30
Severe Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (0807/08W)
Surface Pressure and Plots
Surface Streamlines and Plots
Sea Surface Temperatures
Taiwan Surface Plots
Updates hourly at :30
Severe Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (0807/08W)
Surface Pressure and Plots
Surface Streamlines and Plots
Sea Surface Temperatures
Taiwan Surface Plots
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-
Typhoon Hunter
- WesternPacificWeather.com
- Posts: 1215
- Age: 40
- Joined: Wed Oct 11, 2006 11:37 am
- Location: Hong Kong
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression (JTWC: TD 08W, PAGASA: TS Helen)
Upgraded by JMA at long long last. TS Kalmaegi.
They expect it to intensify quite quickly and head north up the east coast of Taiwan and then threaten Zhejiang province.
WTPQ20 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0807 KALMAEGI (0807) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 18.1N 123.7E FAIR
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 19.3N 122.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 170600UTC 22.3N 122.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 180600UTC 25.6N 122.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
They expect it to intensify quite quickly and head north up the east coast of Taiwan and then threaten Zhejiang province.
WTPQ20 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0807 KALMAEGI (0807) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 18.1N 123.7E FAIR
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 19.3N 122.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 170600UTC 22.3N 122.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 180600UTC 25.6N 122.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
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WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 005
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 18.1N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 123.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.3N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.9N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.0N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.4N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.8N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 28.1N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 30.9N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 123.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
Not common for JTWC to have it as a TD when JMA already have it as a storm.
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 005
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 18.1N 123.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 123.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 18.3N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.9N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.0N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 21.4N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 24.8N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 28.1N 118.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 30.9N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 123.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
//
Not common for JTWC to have it as a TD when JMA already have it as a storm.
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Re:
Chacor wrote:WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 005
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
Not common for JTWC to have it as a TD when JMA already have it as a storm.
You know things are bad when the JTWC downgrades from a designation it never gave. On Warning 004, it was still a TD:
930
WTPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 18.3N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 124.0E
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The JTWC best-track apparently upgraded it post-operationally to 35 kts at 00z.
0808071106 198N1264E 15
0808071112 198N1267E 15
0808071118 199N1270E 15
0808071200 200N1271E 15
0808071206 202N1271E 15
0808071212 204N1269E 15
0808071218 204N1266E 20
0808071300 203N1264E 20
0808071306 201N1262E 20
0808071312 199N1261E 20
0808071318 197N1259E 20
0808071400 194N1257E 20
0808071406 191N1254E 25
0808071412 189N1250E 25
0808071418 186N1246E 30
0808071500 183N1242E 35
0808071506 181N1237E 30
0808071106 198N1264E 15
0808071112 198N1267E 15
0808071118 199N1270E 15
0808071200 200N1271E 15
0808071206 202N1271E 15
0808071212 204N1269E 15
0808071218 204N1266E 20
0808071300 203N1264E 20
0808071306 201N1262E 20
0808071312 199N1261E 20
0808071318 197N1259E 20
0808071400 194N1257E 20
0808071406 191N1254E 25
0808071412 189N1250E 25
0808071418 186N1246E 30
0808071500 183N1242E 35
0808071506 181N1237E 30
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WTPQ20 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0807 KALMAEGI (0807)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 17.9N 123.4E FAIR
MOVE SW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 19.4N 122.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 170600UTC 22.3N 122.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 180600UTC 25.6N 122.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0807 KALMAEGI (0807)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 17.9N 123.4E FAIR
MOVE SW 07KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 19.4N 122.8E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 170600UTC 22.3N 122.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 180600UTC 25.6N 122.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
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Up to 40 kts. Also stationary now, getting ready to make the northwesterly turn.
WTPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0807 KALMAEGI (0807)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 17.9N 123.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 19.6N 122.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171200UTC 22.5N 122.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 181200UTC 26.0N 122.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0807 KALMAEGI (0807)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 17.9N 123.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 19.6N 122.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 171200UTC 22.5N 122.3E 110NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 181200UTC 26.0N 122.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
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