ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[zaqxsw75050]

8.9N 36.4W, 20kts

[Cyclenall]

I had a feeling this would come up as a Invest first and foremost. I don't know much about this one.

[HURAKAN]

570
WHXX01 KWBC 130645
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0645 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942008) 20080713 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080713 0600 080713 1800 080714 0600 080714 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.8N 36.4W 9.4N 37.8W 9.8N 38.8W 10.2N 40.3W
BAMD 8.8N 36.4W 9.3N 38.0W 9.9N 39.4W 10.6N 40.8W
BAMM 8.8N 36.4W 9.3N 37.9W 9.9N 39.2W 10.6N 40.7W
LBAR 8.8N 36.4W 9.1N 38.0W 9.6N 39.6W 10.2N 41.8W
SHIP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS
DSHP 20KTS 23KTS 28KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080715 0600 080716 0600 080717 0600 080718 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.6N 42.7W 11.4N 49.2W 11.8N 56.3W 11.8N 63.4W
BAMD 11.1N 42.6W 12.2N 47.3W 12.9N 52.2W 13.5N 56.8W
BAMM 10.8N 42.7W 11.4N 48.2W 11.4N 53.9W 10.9N 59.3W
LBAR 10.7N 43.9W 12.2N 49.3W 13.2N 55.2W 14.3N 60.7W
SHIP 41KTS 53KTS 61KTS 66KTS
DSHP 41KTS 53KTS 61KTS 66KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.8N LONCUR = 36.4W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 8.6N LONM12 = 35.6W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 8.5N LONM24 = 34.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this has by far a better chance of developing.

1# Lots of convection
2# Low shear

The ship model forecast strengthing to a point where you can be some what safe to assume it may have a chance of developing. It will likley be a low rider.

People you know those ship of the LINE ships of old. Remember how when the doors opened up on the sides and the cannons started to come out. I clearly see those cannons coming out right now. Maybe not as intense of 2004, but 1998,99 or 96 is looking possible.

Maybe it would be a good idea to buy homes that can be moved from the coast to inland?

[Ad Novoxium]

Just looking at that image, this has a shape that looks a little heart-ish. After Nargis, that's a pretty horrid thing to point out.

And from the models, it appears BAMM does a Tropical Storm Alma (1974) into Trinidad and Venezuela. The other models are...disheartening, to say the least.

[KWT]

Looking very interesting, this one if it forms is almost certainly going to be a threat to the Caribbean and could end up threatening the USA depending on exact track.

Anyway there is still loads of deep convection with the area though the actual region most primed for development is on the eastern side of the deeep convection.

Need to be watched for development, no certainties but its in a good enough location right now for development to slowly occur.

[cycloneye]

This will take sometime to organize as its a big system.But only its location presents future problems for the Lesser Antilles and other landmasses upstream.

Lets see how many pages this thread will have:

[stormchazer]

The interaction with Bertha could be interesting here. Will the weakness that is suppose to grab Bertha allow this feature to escape as well, or at minimum, pull it far enough north to be affected by future weaknesses? I am not sure the models showing it going straight into the Carribean are a lock.

Heck this assumes it even develops.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This looks more impressive in some ways then Bertha.

[Kennethb]

Should 94L be able to gain latitude and enter the Carribean, it still will have to makes its way through the zone of death for tropical systems, especially so early in the season.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Should 94L be able to gain latitude and enter the Carribean, it still will have to makes its way through the zone of death for tropical systems, especially so early in the season.

Remember Charley, Emily, made it. This seems to have good outflow trying to develop and nice shape. If convection can keep firing over the developing "LLC" I would expect a cyclone out of this within 36 hours.

[Derek Ortt]

what zone of death?

[Emmett_Brown]

what zone of death?

True... seems like in recent years (whitness Dean and Felix) that this area is quite favorable for development; quite the oposite of a zone of death. I think we can safely call this theory defunked.

[ronjon]

The GFS appears to be an outlier as of now as it swings this future system NE of the leewards. All of the other global models either keep it weaker and slower (and more south) or bring it into the central leewards in about 5 days (Euro, CMC,BAMD). I would expect slower development than the GFS and thus the system should eventually be a caribbean threat. Is this low pressure destined to become the next Dennis (2005) or Ivan (2004)? Ivan formed near 9N-29W.

[cycloneye]

943
ABNT20 KNHC 131145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 220 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
WEAK FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[bob rulz]

Beat me to it by like 5 seconds.

And poof there's suddenly two new areas of interest to talk about in the outlook. Very interesting.

[Chacor]

It's orange on the GTWO.

[cycloneye]