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HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dolly_%282008%29#cite_note-Bloomberg_damage_estimates-54
Wikipedia puts damage estimates at $1.5 Billion.
MiamiensisWx wrote:Firstly, I'm definitely not downplaying Dolly's effects on southern Texas and northern Mexico; obviously, the effects on lives speak for itself. However, I believe the data is sufficient to support an informed opinion in regards to the 1-min winds.
I've explored the damage photographs and NWS images from southern Padre Island (within the northern eyewall), and although many frail residences/commercial buildings experienced extensive roof damage, I must admit that the wind damages could have much worse to structures. Damages to vulnerable Washingtonia robusta palms seemed less extensive on S Padre Island than the damages inflicted to the same species in south FL during marginal Cat 1 winds (~65-70 kt) in Wilma; I can attest to that fact, as I was in southeast FL during the storm and after the TC passed. Most of the S Florida palms were snapped, while photographs show several exposed palms intact on S Padre Island. Obviously, a handful of photographs and initial reports should never be utilized to fully ascertain the extent of structural/vegetative damages, so I prudently waited until more data arrived today. Based on a blend of the photographs from S Padre Island, Brownsville/northern Mexico, and elsewhere; the reconnaissance/radar data; and analysis of Dolly's structure around the time of landfall, it seems difficult to believe Dolly's maximum sustained winds exceeded 75-80 kt (strong Category 1 status) at landfall, even when I account for the fact that the strongest winds were not experienced by most residents or sampled by ASOS data/land based stations/buoys. I do believe that S Padre Island experienced sustained winds of hurricane force, but they may have likely been near ~65 kt, with streaks near ~70 kt. A very small area of the coastline in portions of south Texas likely received the maximum sustained winds (~75-80 kt).
Personally, it is apparent that overland friction supported the development of an outer concentric eyewall, which allowed subsidence from the convection to affect Dolly's inner eyewall and core. When combined with ongoing low level dry air intrusion, we observed the "abortion" (halt) of Dolly's intensification as it slowed east of Brownsville. This was evident on radar, which indicated the erosion of the northern eyewall. At the same time, this fostered the development of stronger convection in the southern quadrant, which caused the appearance of a "lopsided" TC as stronger winds mixed to the surface on the south and SW sides. Matamoros, Mexico and Port Isabel, Texas actually received extensive wind damages as a result. As Dolly's forward movement decreased, upwelling became an issue over the shallow depths with more marginal OHC close to the coast, so the TC (likely) weakened to a strong Category 1 hurricane as it moved ashore on the barrier islands. If the aforementioned processes did not occur and the negative factors were absent, a larger area of S Padre Island could have received a larger area of Cat 1 sustained winds and greater coverage of stronger winds, including the maximum 1-min winds. As Dolly moved inland, frictional convergence likely maintained its structure, so the convection brought strong winds well inland to Harlingen and adjacent areas.
I was initially concerned about a potential flooding event in NE Mexico via orographic lifting and ascent enhanced by divergence from the upper low to the west of Dolly, but mid level dry air and capping may have precluded/reduced the threat for more extensive precipitation totals and aereal coverage.
Regardless, Dolly was still impressive and destructive to many structures, and large waves/localized storm surge played a role as well.
CrazyC83 wrote:HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dolly_%282008%29#cite_note-Bloomberg_damage_estimates-54
Wikipedia puts damage estimates at $1.5 Billion.
That is based on a $600M insured estimate doubled per NHC convention ($1.2B), plus a report that Mexican damage was about 1/4 the US damage ($300M).
Smurfwicked wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:HurricaneHunter914 wrote:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dolly_%282008%29#cite_note-Bloomberg_damage_estimates-54
Wikipedia puts damage estimates at $1.5 Billion.
That is based on a $600M insured estimate doubled per NHC convention ($1.2B), plus a report that Mexican damage was about 1/4 the US damage ($300M).
If the Mexican damage of ($300m) is based of US currency, then that should be like 3 Billion over there since our dollar is 10 to their 1. Right?
Code: Select all
Live rates at 2008.07.25 12:36:25 UTC
1.00 USD = 10.0082 MXN
United States Dollars Mexico Pesos
1 USD = 10.0082 MXN 1 MXN = 0.0999176 USD
SELECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN INCHES...
...TEXAS...
SAN MANUEL......................12.00
BROWNSVILLE 4.6 NNW..............8.62
MCALLEN..........................8.51
HARLINGEN........................5.77
CORPUS CHRISTI...................5.39
MISSION 1.9 ENE..................5.20
KINGSVILLE 8.2 SE................5.19
ODEM.............................4.50
RANDOLPH AFB.....................2.38
KELLY AFB........................2.31
TERREL COUNTY AIRPORT............0.77
Posted at advisory thread.That thread is for advisorys being posted not in this one. NOAA's Environmental Visualization Program is offering high resolution satellite imagery of Hurricane Dolly. Below is a high-defintion animation is available to download (right click and save link to your computer.)
You may need to download the free Quicktime player to view the file.
High resolution Hurricane Dolly animation (3MB – .mp4 format)
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