ATL: Dolly Model Runs

bbadon · #641 Postby **bbadon** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:03 am

O Town wrote:

Is anyone having trouble viewing this image? I cant see anything?

HouTXmetro · #642 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:04 am

sphelps8681 wrote:
Smurfwicked wrote:
O Town wrote:

I've been waiting on this, thank you. And is it just me or do most of them models show a lot of "wobbles" in the track? Is that normal? I can't remember seeing ones that looked so much like the lines was drawn on with a squiggly pen.

It shows models coming toward Houston and Beaumont/Pt. Arthur area. Is this correct. Because all I have been hearing is Mexico/S. Tex. Have these readjusted since Dolly made her trip over the Yuc.

Not really, ATM there is nothing for us in Houston to be worried about. We may get some Tropical downpours if that much.

#643 Postby **O Town** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:05 am

The GFS, and BAMs were ran at 2 am, the rest were ran last night at 8. The newer run models are showing a slight shift so Im sure on the next run the rest will shift slightly too. The nest run is at 12z, 8am.

#644 Postby **O Town** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:06 am

bbadon wrote:
Is anyone having trouble viewing this image? I cant see anything?

Click the bar at the top of the image and a new window should open click the image again and it will enlarge.

Smurfwicked · #645 Postby **Smurfwicked** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:07 am

sphelps8681 wrote:It shows models coming toward Houston and Beaumont/Pt. Arthur area. Is this correct. Because all I have been hearing is Mexico/S. Tex. Have these readjusted since Dolly made her trip over the Yuc.

It currently shows one single model out of very many making landfall the BMT/PA area. I think we still need to wait for Dolly to develop further before models come to more of a agreement on the track.

Which IMO as non professional that knows nothing about this stuff, but I think most of these models will favor the center of texas coastline when they update.

Extremeweatherguy · #646 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:16 am

The only model taking this to SE TX/SW LA is the CLP5, which is a climatology model and is generally much less reliable than the other models posted on the above image.

PauleinHouston · #647 Postby **PauleinHouston** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:18 am

Agreed. Recon hasn't found a good westerly wind component as yet, however, MLC appears to be in control at the time. When the LLC reforms, I think it will do so farther north and lay the models out more towards mid-Texas coast and points south.

HouTXmetro · #648 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:22 am

PauleinHouston wrote:Agreed. Recon hasn't found a good westerly wind component as yet, however, MLC appears to be in control at the time. When the LLC reforms, I think it will do so farther north and lay the models out more towards mid-Texas coast and points south.

I think the LLC is forming beneath the MLC right now.

#649 Postby **BigA** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:23 am

quote="HouTXmetro"]

PauleinHouston wrote:Agreed. Recon hasn't found a good westerly wind component as yet, however, MLC appears to be in control at the time. When the LLC reforms, I think it will do so farther north and lay the models out more towards mid-Texas coast and points south.

I think the LLC is forming beneath the MLC right now.[/quote]

Where is the MLC right now?

PauleinHouston · #650 Postby **PauleinHouston** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:25 am

I think the LLC is forming beneath the MLC right now.[/quote]

Think you're right and also note the recons flight path...been east/west oriented and they're moving more northerly now in subsequent passes...will be interesting to see if they get any W/SW wind components if they continue moving northerly.

Amendment...well, they turned south, lol

#651 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:33 am

Between Brownsville and Corpus Christi is now the GFDL latest landfall track.

#652 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:35 am

06z HWRF almost the same spot as GFDL.

HouTXmetro · #653 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:39 am

Best possible spot for landfall into Kennedy county. Now If the models keep shifting North each run :eek:

But as of now we are still safe.

#654 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:42 am

I know I'll get blasted for this, but the NAM is in about the same area...See Ed, you're not the only one that looks at the NAM. :lol:

#655 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:48 am

The BAMS are also with GFDL and HWRF more north.

WHXX01 KWBC 211244
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1244 UTC MON JUL 21 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080721 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080721 1200 080722 0000 080722 1200 080723 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.6N 88.7W 22.8N 91.0W 24.5N 93.1W 26.1N 94.8W
BAMD 21.6N 88.7W 22.7N 90.7W 24.0N 92.2W 25.6N 93.5W
BAMM 21.6N 88.7W 22.8N 90.8W 24.1N 92.7W 25.7N 94.2W
LBAR 21.6N 88.7W 22.8N 91.3W 24.0N 93.7W 25.4N 95.6W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 57KTS 64KTS
DSHP 45KTS 50KTS 57KTS 64KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080723 1200 080724 1200 080725 1200 080726 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.2N 96.7W 27.4N 100.9W 26.6N 105.9W 26.4N 110.3W
BAMD 26.9N 94.5W 28.3N 97.3W 29.4N 101.7W 31.8N 105.8W
BAMM 26.9N 95.6W 28.1N 99.4W 28.9N 104.5W 31.1N 108.8W
LBAR 26.7N 96.9W 28.6N 98.0W 29.9N 99.0W 30.7N 100.3W
SHIP 68KTS 73KTS 75KTS 70KTS
DSHP 68KTS 38KTS 28KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.6N LONCUR = 88.7W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 20.0N LONM12 = 85.9W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 17.9N LONM24 = 83.5W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 150NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 150NM

#656 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:54 am

A snippet from the recon in last report
12:30:30Z 22.58N 87.22W 957.7 mb
(~ 28.28 inHg) 482 meters
(~ 1,581 feet) 1011.5 mb
(~[b] 29.87 inHg) - From 135° at 57 knots
(From the SE at ~ 65.5 mph[/b]) 23.9°C
(~ 75.0°F) 19.0°C
(~ 66.2°F) 58 knots
(~ 66.7 mph) 36 knots
FLIGHT LEVEL
I don't think they have closed off LLC yet though.

DESTRUCTION5 · #657 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:55 am

LOL at the GFS :uarrow:

HouTXmetro · #658 Postby **HouTXmetro** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:57 am

3 models at the exact same landfall spot!

christoddwhitmer · #659 Postby **christoddwhitmer** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:15 am

6Z 7-21-2008 GFDL ~ Dolly

[b]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

http://christodd.ipower.com/portals/ind ... 2&start=42

mattpetre · #660 Postby **mattpetre** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:25 am

That northerly jog in the gfdl track is sure going to scare a lot of people in Houston if it verifies; especially since all news outlets are saying Brownsville and consensus quite a bit.

ATL: Dolly Model Runs

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6Z 7-21-2008 GFDL ~ Dolly

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