ATL: Dolly Model Runs

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 18, 48 hr

[KWT]

Thats right on the border between Texas and Mexico, also 48hrs away as well which is pretty interesting.

[Ed Mahmoud]

All of those models, except maybe the UK Met, have too much of a Northwest component, Dolly is moving close to due West, around 280º, and therefore if the models are already too far North relative to actual, landfall is probably too far North.

[Ed Mahmoud]

For those wanting a Texas landfall despite all odds- the 0Z NAM!


It could be right, maybe.

Maybe not.

[Wx_Warrior]

No one wanted to post?

00 GFS, 42 hr...Brownsville

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 221228
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1228 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLLY (AL042008) 20080722 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080722 1200 080723 0000 080723 1200 080724 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.7N 94.0W 24.7N 95.5W 25.6N 97.2W 25.8N 98.6W
BAMD 23.7N 94.0W 25.0N 95.5W 25.8N 96.6W 26.3N 97.8W
BAMM 23.7N 94.0W 24.7N 95.5W 25.3N 96.7W 25.7N 98.0W
LBAR 23.7N 94.0W 24.9N 95.6W 26.0N 97.1W 26.8N 98.4W
SHIP 55KTS 66KTS 73KTS 75KTS
DSHP 55KTS 66KTS 73KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080724 1200 080725 1200 080726 1200 080727 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.0N 100.5W 26.1N 105.0W 26.6N 109.6W 27.9N 113.6W
BAMD 26.4N 99.6W 26.8N 104.2W 28.0N 109.3W 30.0N 113.0W
BAMM 25.7N 99.7W 25.8N 104.2W 26.4N 109.4W 27.8N 113.8W
LBAR 27.7N 99.8W 29.8N 102.8W 31.8N 104.9W 33.3N 105.3W
SHIP 78KTS 78KTS 72KTS 64KTS
DSHP 35KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.7N LONCUR = 94.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 23.0N LONM12 = 92.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 21.9N LONM24 = 88.9W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 240NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 140NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 120NM

$$

[Extremeweatherguy]

[KWT]

Looks like very good agreemnt by the models of a landfall just south of the border, which is very bad news for far southern Texas as that puts them likely into the N.Eyewall.

[Red_Fish]

I kinda forgot how to translate central time to zulu time ... can someone knowledgeable let us know when the GFS and GFDL models will be updated?

[terstorm1012]

I think zulu time is the same as Greenwich Mean Time.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I think zulu time is the same as Greenwich Mean Time.

Texas is 5 hours behind in Summer.

19Z Zulu is 1400 local, or 2 pm.

[gboudx]

Central Daylight Time is 6 hours less than GMT. So, currently it's 12:17pm CDT which means 18:17 GMT.

When Daylight Savings time ends, CST will be 5 hours behind.

[RL3AO]

Central Daylight Time is 6 hours less than GMT. So, currently it's 12:17pm CDT which means 18:17 GMT.

When Daylight Savings time ends, CST will be 5 hours behind.

Other way around. CST = UTC-6, CDT = UTC-5.

[Red_Fish]

Just knew the conversion was somewhat complicated ....

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z WRF shows landfall in Kenedy County, with about 8 inches of rain next 3 days in Corpus Christi. Per AccuWx PPV MOS. Which is given in inches.

I believe this model loop gives accumulated rainfall in mm. 400 mm would be about 8 inches.


I think flash flooding may wind up as big a problem as strong winds and coastal flooding. Note how WRF slows storm near landfall.


Will double post in main thread.

[gboudx]

Central Daylight Time is 6 hours less than GMT. So, currently it's 12:17pm CDT which means 18:17 GMT.

When Daylight Savings time ends, CST will be 5 hours behind.

Other way around. CST = UTC-6, CDT = UTC-5.

OMG, my PC is wrong then. :covri:

[Ed Mahmoud]

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY      ANALYSED POSITION : 23.8N  94.2W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042008



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 22.07.2008  23.8N  94.2W   MODERATE

 00UTC 23.07.2008  24.6N  95.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 23.07.2008  24.9N  96.6W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 24.07.2008  25.3N  97.6W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 24.07.2008  26.2N  99.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 25.07.2008        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



[brunota2003]

What model run is that? Suggesting IR tonight...my "Unofficial" statements have been saying Cat 2 since it was forecast to be a hurricane, because you never know...

[Ed Mahmoud]

What model run is that? Suggesting IR tonight...my "Unofficial" statements have been saying Cat 2 since it was forecast to be a hurricane, because you never know...

UK Met tropical model text product, and I have no idea what "intense" means in their system.

[brunota2003]

I think Moderate is TS, Strong is Cat 1/Cat 2, and Intense is Cat 3 (I THINK...that is only from taking an uneducated guess)