H Dolly Recon Discussion Thread

[senorpepr]

Hey Pebbles!


Just for you:

[Pebbles]

Hey Pebbles!


Just for you:

AHAHA I was waiting for that.. Now you've made my season *snugs snugs* Nice to see you too luv!

[gotoman38]

982 is a strong Cat 1 - has Dolly found her core strength?

[americanrebel]

Are those maps you guys are using to put the plots the most current ones? If so it definetely looks like the eye is trying to wrap herself nice and tight, which usually means she wants to intensify.

[gotoman38]

Are those maps you guys are using to put the plots the most current ones? If so it definetely looks like the eye is trying to wrap herself nice and tight, which usually means she wants to intensify.

I hear ya


Ideally, we would get GE updates with coordinates and a timestamp on them... but that's what we have - still not all bad!

[kurtpage]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 230530
XXAA 73057 99255 70959 08255 99986 26000 10574 00622 ///// /////
92566 23200 13588 85304 20205 13565 70967 11018 14063 88999 77999
31313 09608 80502
61616 AF304 1804A DOLLY OB 16
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2553N09598W 0506 MBL WND 11588 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 13071 986718 WL150 11082 075 =
XXBB 73058 99255 70959 08255 00986 26000 11850 20205 22705 14414
33696 08222
21212 00986 10574 11979 11585 22960 11586 33953 11592 44949 11585
55944 12095 66936 13098 77910 14076 88890 13577 99863 13564 11850
13565 22718 13553 33696 14066
31313 09608 80502
61616 AF304 1804A DOLLY OB 16
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 2553N09598W 0506 MBL WND 11588 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 13071 986718 WL150 11082 075 =
;

Eyewall drosponde:
Surface Winds (986mb) 74kts
979mb 85kts
960mb 86kts
953mb 92kts
949mb 85kts
MBL Wind 88kts

[gotoman38]

Is she jogging N???

[Honeyko]

A struggling storm which finally closes its eyewall usually (if the eye is small) enters a rapid intensification phase wherein it will quickly crank up to the next "base state" supported by local conditions.

In 1999, Hurricane Bret dwaddled around in a weak state for some time before closing off an eye, then quickly bombed from cat-1 to cat-4 in less than half a day.

Dolly is closer to the coast, however, and running out of time.

[gotoman38]

Off topic -my favorite image post on this forum - H5 Dean attacks Yucatan - RECON had to do a 180 due to landfall of the storm.

[gotoman38]

I think they go for another run NE-SW.. landfall is close!

[ekal]

edit out for crappy hypothesis.

[ekal]

Good working with you on the obs, go2!

Whoever wants to take over with the density obs when the next plane gets going is welcome.

[KWT]

New plane is flying towards Dolly will be interesting to see if winds have caught up with the pressure drops.

[HURAKAN]

I will do the Google maps.

[WmE]

New plane is flying towards Dolly will be interesting to see if winds have caught up with the pressure drops.

Yeah, that is going to be interesting. 976mbar is (near) Cat2 strenght pressure wise.

[KWT]

Indeed Wme, we will see in a few hours, not sure how many more recon passes we will get before landfall but should get through this mission anyway.

[Thunder44]

82kts winds reported at the surface from a eyewall drosponde. The drospondes suggest that flight level to surface wind reduction is at least 95%.

[ekal]

Given the pressure falls we have been seeing, 82 knots at the sfc sounds more like it. But that would be 95 mph. Should the NHC issue an update?

[HenkL]

Re my GE file:
Had to restart the computer due to a crash

[KWT]

Yep 82kts in that dropsonde should mean the winds are now upto 80kts and I think NHC should up winds to reflect that IMO.