ATL: INVEST 95L in SW Caribbean

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al952008.invest
FSTDA
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040
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200807171513
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2008, DB, O, 2008071712, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952008
AL, 95, 2008071700, , BEST, 0, 133N, 792W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2008071706, , BEST, 0, 133N, 806W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2008071712, , BEST, 0, 133N, 820W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 60, 0,

This wont last too long as land awaits.But it can cause mudslides and flooding.

[DESTRUCTION5]

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
Like NHC said conditions look very favorable for development. The only thing really going against it, is time. From what I seen on this map, it's been lacking enough low-level convergence, to organize quicker:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html



Agree.

Also has better structure than 94 ever has...running out of time and water though

No it doesnt..are you kidding? Unlike 94L this doesnt have a llc. There is one very apparent on the visible loop. This one has...some showers, a light spin...but its not that much. Personally, I give neither much of a chance to develop.

Got classified?

[HURAKAN]

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html

[HURAKAN]

795
WHXX01 KWBC 171514
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1514 UTC THU JUL 17 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952008) 20080717 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080717 1200 080718 0000 080718 1200 080719 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 82.0W 13.5N 84.5W 13.4N 87.0W 13.5N 89.4W
BAMD 13.3N 82.0W 13.6N 84.3W 13.9N 86.8W 14.4N 89.3W
BAMM 13.3N 82.0W 13.6N 84.3W 13.8N 86.6W 14.1N 88.9W
LBAR 13.3N 82.0W 13.6N 84.6W 14.1N 87.4W 14.9N 90.4W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080719 1200 080720 1200 080721 1200 080722 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.4N 91.7W 12.6N 96.4W 11.6N 101.8W 11.3N 106.6W
BAMD 14.9N 92.0W 15.7N 97.9W 16.0N 104.1W 16.5N 109.5W
BAMM 14.4N 91.4W 14.4N 96.5W 13.9N 102.0W 13.5N 107.3W
LBAR 16.1N 93.7W 19.2N 99.9W 21.5N 103.5W 26.8N 106.4W
SHIP 54KTS 62KTS 66KTS 66KTS
DSHP 27KTS 36KTS 40KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 82.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 13.3N LONM12 = 79.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 76.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Out of time.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 16 2008

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 TO 20
KT AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT
LAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST
INCREASING ORGANIZATION TO THIS SYSTEM DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12
HOURS...THOUGH IT IS ON THE VERGE OF MOVING OVER LAND. NO MATTER
WHETHER IT DEVELOPS OR NOT...A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME GLOBAL MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN
THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC...IN A MANNER SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE
LAST SEVERAL STORMS.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org

[Lowpressure]

Looking quite a bit better over the last 6 hours or so. Mudslides seem to be the threat here, it least it is moving 15-20, so no apparent prolonged flooding event.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Fausto will have company in a couple of days...

[senorpepr]

Ensure you've refreshed for the latest maps!
Updates hourly at :30


Tropical Disturbance (95L)

Surface Pressure and Plots


Surface Streamlines and Plots


Sea Surface Temperatures


Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama Surface Plots

[cycloneye]

[CrazyC83]

Where is the center?

[RL3AO]

Right now I think the question is, does it take the long or the short track into the East Pacific.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html
Some banding features are developing. If it wasn't moving so fast, it could have been a TD. Not saying it won't be one, but chances are slim.

[HURAKAN]

986
ABNT20 KNHC 171758
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH
THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE
MOVING INLAND TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE SPREADING OVER
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[x-y-no]

If this had another day over water I think we'd have a TS for sure. As it is, this could be a bad rain event.

[Sanibel]

This has more to it than 94L. If it doesn't get over land and weaken fast it will threaten 94L and steal its energy right in the spot 94L needed to recover.


There's no doubt the Caribbean is showing us it is suddenly warming up and turning favorable.

[KWT]

Well looks like this just won't have the time to do anything but this is a pretty interesting little system, good job this hasn't got another 24hrs as we would likely have a tropical system on our hands.

[CrazyC83]

The forgotten Invest. Should become 91E(?) soon.