ATL: Tropical Storm Cristobal Model Runs

[KWT]

Yep most models seem to take it up NE from this point onwards and maybe clipping the outer banks before maybe eventually being an issue for Newfoundland. ECM also suggested a similar thing in its 0z run.

[brunota2003]

[img]

Nice clustering.

Yeah...almost directly over top of me...greattt

[cycloneye]

450
WHXX01 KWBC 181853
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1853 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962008) 20080718 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080718 1800 080719 0600 080719 1800 080720 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.2N 80.4W 32.0N 80.2W 32.8N 79.8W 33.1N 79.0W
BAMD 31.2N 80.4W 31.5N 80.7W 31.8N 80.9W 32.2N 80.9W
BAMM 31.2N 80.4W 31.8N 80.5W 32.4N 80.3W 32.7N 79.8W
LBAR 31.2N 80.4W 31.5N 80.5W 32.1N 80.5W 32.9N 80.2W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 33KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 33KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080720 1800 080721 1800 080722 1800 080723 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.4N 77.6W 33.6N 73.3W 35.2N 68.6W 38.3N 64.3W
BAMD 32.5N 80.4W 32.2N 78.0W 32.7N 77.4W 33.4N 77.8W
BAMM 33.0N 78.7W 32.9N 75.2W 34.5N 71.9W 37.2N 68.0W
LBAR 33.5N 79.4W 35.4N 76.0W 39.8N 69.6W 54.3N 53.7W
SHIP 37KTS 46KTS 54KTS 45KTS
DSHP 37KTS 46KTS 54KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.2N LONCUR = 80.4W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 30.8N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 344DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 30.5N LONM24 = 80.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[storms in NC]

The NWC here in Wilm said they are going with the GFS

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 190024
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0024 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032008) 20080719 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080719 0000 080719 1200 080720 0000 080720 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 31.7N 79.8W 32.5N 79.4W 33.2N 78.5W 33.5N 77.2W
BAMD 31.7N 79.8W 32.0N 80.0W 32.5N 79.9W 32.8N 79.3W
BAMM 31.7N 79.8W 32.4N 79.8W 33.0N 79.2W 33.4N 78.0W
LBAR 31.7N 79.8W 32.4N 79.6W 33.3N 79.0W 34.1N 77.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 29KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 28KTS 29KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080721 0000 080722 0000 080723 0000 080724 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.5N 75.5W 33.3N 72.7W 34.0N 71.6W 37.9N 68.5W
BAMD 32.8N 78.1W 32.6N 77.3W 33.9N 77.4W 37.1N 74.5W
BAMM 33.4N 76.3W 33.6N 74.3W 35.3N 73.4W 39.9N 68.8W
LBAR 34.8N 76.2W 37.3N 71.9W 45.2N 62.5W .0N .0W
SHIP 31KTS 34KTS 42KTS 43KTS
DSHP 31KTS 34KTS 42KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 31.7N LONCUR = 79.8W DIRCUR = 40DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 31.1N LONM12 = 80.5W DIRM12 = 19DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 30.8N LONM24 = 80.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[brunota2003]

They do keep the system fairly weak. 45 mph is not that terribly bad, and we have certainly weathered worse.

[cycloneye]

But beneficial rains for NC.

[brunota2003]

Hopefully it'll put that fire out in NE NC for good! It is definitely just what the doctor ordered...but hopefully no surprises.

I've witnessed too many Nor' Easters bomb out just off the coast because of the Gulf Stream, hoping for nothing like that with this system...

[Stormtrack03]

According to local forecaster, we may not see much rain in SC at all, because of all the dry air... we did have some yesterday though so that will help some really dry areas.

[Bane]

hopefully the nc coast will benefit from rain since it juts out farther than charleston and the southern sc coastline.

[cycloneye]

Here are the latest tracks from the models:

[brunota2003]

Oh lovely...almost all coming directly over me...The only question remaining with those is, does it hug the coast or stay out further offshore before moving into Onslow County?

[Aric Dunn]

well wouldn't you know i see a loop.... that is not surprising at all since the trough that is supposed pick this up is hardly anywhere to be found .. also kind of creepy it makes landfall in NC than does a loop to make landfall again in nearly the same spot that would be interesting to watch lol not good for the residents but interesting

[webke]

Oh lovely...almost all coming directly over me...The only question remaining with those is, does it hug the coast or stay out further offshore before moving into Onslow County?

Dont feel bad , based on that I have no choice so I'll see what it brings.

[Rainband]

Hopefully areas that need rain get some but not too much.

[Bane]

well wouldn't you know i see a loop.... that is not surprising at all since the trough that is supposed pick this up is hardly anywhere to be found .. also kind of creepy it makes landfall in NC than does a loop to make landfall again in nearly the same spot that would be interesting to watch lol not good for the residents but interesting

if it stays weak, the loop wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

[webke]

Hopefully areas that need rain get some but not too much.

I hope the areas that need it in NC get it, however here where I am we had rain everyday last week and i am not sure if the ground can soak up a major rainfall.

[brunota2003]

well wouldn't you know i see a loop.... that is not surprising at all since the trough that is supposed pick this up is hardly anywhere to be found .. also kind of creepy it makes landfall in NC than does a loop to make landfall again in nearly the same spot that would be interesting to watch lol not good for the residents but interesting

if it stays weak, the loop wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

But at the same time, it can be. It is slow moving, so it would possibly bring flooding...Anyone remember Dennis the Menace in 1999, and what came after he did his loopy loop?

[Aric Dunn]

well wouldn't you know i see a loop.... that is not surprising at all since the trough that is supposed pick this up is hardly anywhere to be found .. also kind of creepy it makes landfall in NC than does a loop to make landfall again in nearly the same spot that would be interesting to watch lol not good for the residents but interesting

if it stays weak, the loop wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

But at the same time, it can be. It is slow moving, so it would possibly bring flooding...Anyone remember Dennis the Menace in 1999, and what came after he did his loopy loop?

I believe the loops is response the system being stronger and hence the midlevel ridge that is going to building north if would induce a motion like that ..

[Rainband]

well wouldn't you know i see a loop.... that is not surprising at all since the trough that is supposed pick this up is hardly anywhere to be found .. also kind of creepy it makes landfall in NC than does a loop to make landfall again in nearly the same spot that would be interesting to watch lol not good for the residents but interesting

if it stays weak, the loop wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing.

But at the same time, it can be. It is slow moving, so it would possibly bring flooding...Anyone remember Dennis the Menace in 1999, and what came after he did his loopy loop?

not sure this is like dennis