ATL: TS Cristobal Advisories

[dwsqos2]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 202352
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER THIS EVENING...STRONGEST WINDS REMAIN
WELL OFFSHORE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO THE
NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK CRISTOBAL
WILL BE MOVING MOVING AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY MONDAY.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL
AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...34.9 N...75.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...CRISTOBAL BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE OUTER BANKS...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 45 KM...EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK CRISTOBAL
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR 1 INCH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...35.2 N...75.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST OR ABOUT 190
MILES...305 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 725 MILES...1170 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND CRISTOBAL SHOULD START TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
LATE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...36.6 N...72.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[yzerfan]

Environment Canada has started issuing products:

WOCN31 CWHX 210600
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT
MONDAY 21 JULY 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

...CRISTOBAL JUST NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD...


1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 35.6 N AND LONGITUDE 74.4 W... ABOUT 60 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 110 KM EAST NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
AT 1006 MB. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 7 KNOTS... 13 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 21 3.00 AM 35.6N 74.4W 1006 45 83
JUL 21 3.00 PM 37.8N 71.7W 1006 45 83
JUL 22 3.00 AM 40.4N 68.4W 1006 45 83
JUL 22 3.00 PM 42.7N 64.5W 1006 40 74
JUL 23 3.00 AM 44.5N 60.8W 1006 40 74
JUL 23 3.00 PM 45.7N 57.3W 1006 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 AM 46.3N 53.6W 1006 40 74 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY IS EXPECTED AS CRISTOBAL PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE CENTRE OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE OVER GEORGES BANK
TUESDAY MORNING TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO PASS OVER
BANQUEREAU BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
LOCATION OF CENTRE BASED ON AIR FORCE RECON REPORTING 45 KTS WINDS
IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. RADAR SHOWS HEAVY PRECIPITATION
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTRE. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
INCREASED CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE STORM.

B. PROGNOSTIC
CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KTS AND
IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER OFFSHORE AS FRICTION DECREASES
AND OVER AN AREA OF WARM WATER. THE TRACK IS SLOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND WE CONTINUE TO KEEP IT AS AN ENTITY LONG
AFTER IT MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.
THE POSITION OF THE VORT MAX ON THE CANADIAN GEM REG IS
FURTHER SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO THE POSITION OF THE VORT MAX
ON THE CANADIAN GEM GLOBAL. WE LEANED TOWARDS THE GEM REG
AND MADE THE TRACK SLOWER. THE NHC TRACK IS SLOWER AS WELL.
THE TRACK IS DRAWN A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS
TRACK SINCE THE SUPPORT FROM THE NEW MODELS HAS SHIFTED
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL. GEM GLOBAL BEYOND 48 HRS SHOWS THAT
THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE BEEN ABSORBED OR DISSIPATED BUT BASED
ON PASSED EXPERIENCE WE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A
POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL TO CAUSE WINDY CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
A WARM FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NOVA SCOTIA
TODAY THEN MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY AS TS CRISTOBAL APPROACHES. PERIODS OF RAIN
AT TIMES HEAVY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND SOUTHERN
NEW BRUNSWICK AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL TROUGH AND ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD
EASTWARD REACHING SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY NIGHT. AS TS
CRISTOBAL MOVES CLOSER TO THE ATLANTIC REGIONS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE IMPACTS FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL
MAY BE VERY SIGNIFICANT DUE TO RAPID RUN-OFF IN SOME LOCATIONS.

D. MARINE WEATHER
GALE FORCE WINDS WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN WATERS OF THE MARITIME MARINE DISTRICT.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/06Z 95 130 90 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
21/18Z 110 165 85 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/06Z 95 165 75 40 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/18Z 40 120 35 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 0 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/18Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END ROUSSEL

[yzerfan]

WOCN31 CWHX 211200
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9.00 AM ADT
MONDAY 21 JULY 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 3.00 PM ADT

......CRISTOBAL NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AND MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 9.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.7 N AND LONGITUDE 73.1 W... ABOUT 130 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 245 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND VIRGINIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS... 83 KM/H... AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 1004 MB. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS...
19 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 21 9.00 AM 36.7N 73.1W 1004 45 83
JUL 21 9.00 PM 39.1N 70.1W 1004 45 83
JUL 22 9.00 AM 41.5N 66.5W 1004 45 83
JUL 22 9.00 PM 43.6N 62.6W 1007 40 74 TRANSITIONING
JUL 23 9.00 AM 45.1N 59.0W 1009 35 65 TRANSITIONING
JUL 23 9.00 PM 46.0N 55.5W 1009 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 AM 46.6N 51.8W 1010 35 65 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY IS EXPECTED AS CRISTOBAL PASSES SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE CENTRE OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE OVER GEORGES BANK
TUESDAY MORNING TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO PASS OVER
BANQUEREAU BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GALES
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN WATERS.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
LOCATION OF CENTRE BASED ON SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS SATELLITE
AND RADAR PICTURES AS WELL AS PREVIOUS FLIGHT RECONNAISSANCE.
SATELLITE SHOWS CONVECTION IS INCREASING NORTH OF THE CENTRE
WITH CONTINUOUS BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND
RADAR SHOWS HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THAT SAME AREA.

B. PROGNOSTIC
LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
CANADIAN GEM REG AND GLOBAL. LATEST NHC TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE FARTHER OFFSHORE. THERE IS STILL A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK FORECASTS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. IN
THE INTEREST OF PRUDENCE WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE TRACK CLOSE TO NOVA
SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND UNTIL THERE IS BETTER CONCENSUS AMONG THE
MODELS.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
A WARM FRONTAL TROUGH GIVING SHOWERS AT TIMES HEAVY WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT NOVA SCOTIA TODAY THEN STRETCH NORTHWARD TOWARDS
SOUTHERN NEWFOUNDLAND TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AS TS CRISTOBAL APPROACHES.
PERIODS OF RAIN AT TIMES HEAVY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AS TS CRISTOBAL NEARS TUESDAY. THE IMPACTS FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE VERY SIGNIFICANT DUE TO RAPID RUN-OFF IN SOME
LOCATIONS.

D. MARINE WEATHER
GALE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
TS SYSTEM. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
SOUTHERN MARITIME WATERS.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/12Z 100 145 85 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/00Z 100 165 80 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 75 140 55 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 20 80 15 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 20 100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 20 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 20 150 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

END ROUSSEL/STEEVES/BOWYER

[Chacor]

That's three hours old from the CHC. Their next bulletin should be markedly different.

[yzerfan]

WOCN31 CWHX 211800
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 PM ADT
MONDAY 21 JULY 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 PM ADT

... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL TO BRING MORE RAIN TO NOVA SCOTIA...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 PM ADT... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 37.0 N AND LONGITUDE 71.8 W... ABOUT 180 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 335 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF WALLOPS ISLAND VIRGINIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS... 102 KM/H... AND CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 998 MB. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS...
20 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 21 3.00 PM 37.0N 71.8W 998 55 102
JUL 21 9.00 PM 38.0N 70.5W 996 60 111
JUL 22 3.00 AM 39.3N 68.9W 996 60 111
JUL 22 9.00 AM 40.7N 67.3W 996 60 111
JUL 22 3.00 PM 42.0N 65.4W 997 55 102 TRANSITIONING
JUL 22 9.00 PM 43.3N 63.4W 998 55 102 TRANSITIONING
JUL 23 3.00 AM 44.2N 61.2W 999 50 93 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 AM 45.1N 59.0W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 3.00 PM 45.9N 56.5W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 23 9.00 PM 46.3N 53.8W 1000 45 83 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 AM 45.9N 50.4W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 AM 45.3N 47.9W 1002 40 74 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 3.00 PM 44.3N 45.5W 1011 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 24 9.00 PM 43.1N 43.3W 1012 35 65 POST-TROPICAL
JUL 25 3.00 AM 41.8N 41.5W 1013 35 65 POST-TROPICAL

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 100 MM ARE POSSIBLE AS CRISTOBAL
PASSES SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA ON TUESDAY. RAINFALL WARNINGS WILL
BE ISSUED FOR MOST REGIONS OF MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA BY THE
ATLANTIC STORM PREDITION CENTRE. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND REMAIN OFFSHORE SO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
THE CENTRE OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE OVER GEORGES BANK NEAR MIDDAY
ON TUESDAY THEN TRACK TO WESTERN SABLE MARINE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
STORM FORCE WINDS OF UP TO 60 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
TRACK. GALES ARE FORECAST FOR OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA
SCOTIA.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGISTS

A. ANALYSIS
POSITION BASED ON NHC WHICH HAD THE BENEFIT OF AIRCRAFT REONNAISSANCE
AS WELL AS QUIKSCAT. NEW CONVECTION HAS APPEARED ON RECENT SATELLITE
IMAGES OVER SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE AS A BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING
FROM NOVA SCOTIA BEGINS TO TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM CRISTOBAL.

B. PROGNOSTIC
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TENDS TO PUSH TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. WE
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INITIAL 24 HOURS OF OUR TRACK TO
BRING IT IN LINE WITH THE NHC TRACK. OTHERWISE THE TRACK IS SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUE.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAX RAINFALLS IN THE 50 TO 100 MM RANGE. THE
GREATER CHALLENGE WILL BE TO LOCATE THE HIGHER QPF. GEM REGIONAL
AND GFS SHIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD RESULTING IN A RAINFALL
MAX ACROSS THE ANNAPOLIS VALLEY WHICH IS KEPT DISTINCT FROM THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS NEAR THE CENTRE OF CRISTOBAL. THE LATTER
IS GENERALLY KEPT OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION
THE ATLANTIC STORM PREDICTION CENTRE WILL BE ISSUING A GENERAL
RAINFALL WARNING FOR MOST REGIONS OF MAINLAND NOVA SCOTIA.

D. MARINE WEATHER
THE RADIUS OF GALES IS EXPECTED TO BE SMALL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
TRACK. AT THIS TIME WE EXPECT GALES TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST OF NOVA
SCOTIA. STORMS WILL BE RESTRICTED TO RIGHT OF TRACK.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
21/18Z 60 120 60 0 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/00Z 60 120 60 30 40 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/06Z 60 120 60 40 40 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/12Z 60 120 60 40 40 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/18Z 90 135 60 20 50 75 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/00Z 120 150 75 10 50 75 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 120 150 75 0 40 60 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/12Z 100 150 75 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/18Z 60 150 90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/00Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/06Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/12Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
24/18Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/00Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
25/06Z 0 120 120 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

CHC TRAPPED FETCH MODEL SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG RESONANCE
WITH 12-15M INDICATED. MODEL IS SENSITIVE TO WIND AND STORM SPEED
SO THIS IS JUST A HEADS UP.

END STEEVES/BOWYER

[Bane]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 212046
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

A LARGE BALL OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
CENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THERE
HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CRISTOBAL COULD
BE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS
NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM TOMORROW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE
STATISTICAL MODELS. PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FLORIDA STATE
SUGGEST THAT A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD START TOMORROW
AND BE COMPLETED BY WEDNESDAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN
EARLIER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE STORM IS NOW FORECAST TO AVOID ANY TROUGHING OVER
NORTH AMERICA AND INSTEAD RIDE ALONG THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN A COUPLE
DAYS...A NEW TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF THE
STORM...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT TOO FAR FROM
THE GFS BY 96 HOURS. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST NO BAROCLINIC
REINTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AND INSTEAD CRISTOBAL MAY DISSIPATE
OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS IN ABOUT 120 HOURS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 37.1N 71.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 38.9N 68.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 41.7N 64.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 44.0N 60.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 23/1800Z 45.0N 55.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 24/1800Z 42.5N 45.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 25/1800Z 38.5N 40.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Bane]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 212046
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES...425 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 660 MILES...1060 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH SOME
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS
FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND CRISTOBAL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE TOMORROW. THE STORM
SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...37.1 N...71.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...CRISTOBAL ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.8 WEST OR ABOUT 360
MILES...580 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 575 MILES...925 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...37.7 N...69.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME


WTNT43 KNHC 220248
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

CRISTOBAL APPEARS TO BE SUCCUMBING TO THE COOLER SSTS AS DEEP
CONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD SSTS THAT CRISTOBAL WILL ENCOUNTER
ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...FURTHER WEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY. THE
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM INDICATES THE
SYSTEM WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE
PRESENT TREND IN CONVECTION CONTINUES...CRISTOBAL COULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW PRIOR TO ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
REGARDLESS...SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT
THIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF BAROCLINIC FORCING.

CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE
DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/14.
TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN EASTWARD AT
DAY TWO AS CRISTOBAL MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE A RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE DIVERGES DUE TO DIFFERING
FORECASTS OF A TROUGH...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT...WHICH
AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3 AND 4.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 37.7N 69.8W 50 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 39.8N 67.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 42.5N 62.7W 40 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 44.0N 57.9W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 24/0000Z 44.0N 52.8W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/0000Z 41.0N 44.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/0000Z 37.5N 41.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[cycloneye]

WTNT43 KNHC 221440
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

A 1013 SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A BANDED EYE STRUCTURE WITH
CRISTOBAL...THOUGH IT ALSO INDICATED THE SURFACE CENTER WAS ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BUOY 44011 ALSO SUGGESTS
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE
WINDS ARE INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 55 KT. THIS SHOULD BE THE
LAST HURRAH FOR CRISTOBAL AS THE CYCLONE HAS PASSED NORTH OF THE
GULF STREAM INTO COOLER WATERS. A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS
FORECAST BY ALL MODELS AND IS INDICATED BELOW. STEADY WEAKENING AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST DUE TO A STRONG SHEARING
ENVIRONMENT AND NO BAROCLINIC FORCING.

CRISTOBAL IS REALLY START TO MOVE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
050/22. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND THEN EAST TOMORROW AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A TURN
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING
MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD EITHER DISSIPATE
AROUND 4 DAYS OR BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 40.9N 65.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 42.9N 62.6W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 23/1200Z 44.5N 57.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 24/0000Z 44.0N 51.5W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 24/1200Z 42.5N 46.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 25/1200Z 39.0N 41.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 230243
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...CRISTOBAL RACING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST OR ABOUT 230
MILES...370 KM...EAST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH...56 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS CRISTOBAL
LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...44.0 N...59.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 35 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME



862
WTNT43 KNHC 230242
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

WHILE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTOBAL HAS DEGRADED
SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...NEARBY BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF AT LEAST 40-45 KT.
ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. NOW THAT THE EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DISSIPATED...WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC
FORCING...THE EXTRATROPICAL CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.

CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW MOVING AT
AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 30 KT. GLOBAL MODELS...SAVE THE UKMET...
SUGGEST A DECREASE IN FOREWARD SPEED BUT THEY DID NOT ADVERTISE THE
CURRENT ACCELERATION. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
FASTER THAN AND NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF
RESPECT FOR THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE UKMET.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 44.0N 59.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 45.1N 54.8W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 24/0000Z 45.0N 49.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 24/1200Z 43.3N 44.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[HURAKAN]

157
WTNT43 KNHC 230848
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008

ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS
DISSIPATED AND CRISTOBAL NO LONGER HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS USING
GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT ALSO SUGGEST THAT CRISTOBAL HAS TRANSITIONED
INTO AN ASYMMETRIC COLD CORE LOW...I.E. AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
WITH THAT...CRISTOBAL IS DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE
THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CRISTOBAL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH
SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

THE DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE SUGGEST CRISTOBAL HAS
WEAKENED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. SINCE DYNAMICAL
MODELS INDICATE A LACK OF BAROCLINIC FORCING...CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO PRIOR TO CRISTOBAL MERGING
WITH OR BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0900Z 44.7N 55.9W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT 23/1800Z 45.3N 51.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 24/0600Z 44.4N 44.8W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 24/1800Z 42.6N 38.7W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

Adios!