ATL: TS Cristobal Advisories

[cycloneye]

WTNT23 KNHC 190253
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
0300 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...AND FROM NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OREGON INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.6W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.6W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 79.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 32.4N 79.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.4N 78.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.4N 76.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 35.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 38.0N 70.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 79.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT33 KNHC 190253
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER...AND FROM NORTH
OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OREGON INLET. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 330 MILES...530 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND
NORTH CAROLINA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT43 KNHC 190257
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL ROTATION. PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM
A SKIDAWAY INSTITUTE OF OCEANOGRAPHY 50 METER TOWER A SHORT
DISTANCE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION INDICATE THAT THE
CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSEQUENTLY...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS...EITHER FROM COASTAL RADAR OR
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED MUCH IN THE WAY
OF STRONG WINDS YET...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 040/5. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
WEAK...WITH THE DEPRESSION SITTING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS AND A WEAKER ONE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION WILL CONTINUE...VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION INTO THE
WESTERLIES BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NEXT
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE
CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH I'LL NOTE THAT
BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE TRACKS THAT ESSENTIALLY STRADDLE THE
COASTLINE. BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT A
POSSIBLE LANDFALL LOCATION AT THIS TIME.

THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
DRY AIR NEARBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. EXCEPT FOR THE
CLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE MODEL SHIFOR...NONE OF THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE BASED ON SSTS THAT LOOK AT LEAST 1C COOLER
THAN WHAT THE COASTAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING RIGHT NOW...SO I'M GOING
TO GO A LITTLE ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AND SHOW JUST ENOUGH
STRENGTHENING TO MAKE THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM. THE FORECAST
TRACK AND INTENSITIES REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES AND WARNINGS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0300Z 31.9N 79.6W 25 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 32.4N 79.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 33.4N 78.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 34.4N 76.6W 35 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 35.5N 75.0W 35 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 38.0N 70.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 23/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Bane]

lol, we posted at the same time but yours posted first. please delete mine.

[cycloneye]

lol, we posted at the same time but yours posted first. please delete mine.

Ok done.

[brunota2003]

THREE WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

.TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE

NCZ047-080-081-093-094-190900-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1003.080719T0300Z-000000T0000Z/
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

PAMLICO-SOUND-NC 35.35N 75.85W

$$

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MHX...ILM...

[brunota2003]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008

CORRECTED TO ALTER WATCH/WARNING INFORMATION

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT
NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
200 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...
GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES...90 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 305 MILES...490 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND
NORTH CAROLINA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...32.2 N...79.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT33 KNHC 191146
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
800 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS A LITTLE....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 285 MILES...455 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS...KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION VERY CLOSE TO
THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA.

RADAR DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN CHARLESTON
AND WILMINGTON INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...32.3 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Bane]

WTNT23 KNHC 191446
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1500 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.5W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.5W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 78.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 33.3N 77.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.2N 76.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 35.1N 75.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 75SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 40.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 78.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Bane]

WTNT33 KNHC 191446
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF
EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...140 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 250
MILES...400 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...32.6 N...78.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

[Bane]

WTNT43 KNHC 191447
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE AND IS NEARING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. RADAR VELOCITY DATA FROM CHARLESTON AND
WILMINGTON SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING BETTER-
DEFINED AND INCREASING. IN ADDITION...SHIP PDNN REPORTED 30 KT TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 1200 UTC. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
KEPT AT 30 KT IN THIS ADVISORY AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND 1700 UTC TO
DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. SURPRISINGLY...
NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE HWRF SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THE
DEPRESSION. WE''RE INCLINED TO THINK THAT SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS
LIKELY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...SO A SLOW INCREASE IN
WINDS IS INDICATED...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/SHIFOR GUIDANCE.

DATA FROM BUOY 41004 HAS BEEN HELPFUL IN TRACKING THE DEPRESSION...
WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. BEST ESTIMATE
OF INITIAL MOTION IS 050/6. A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM IN THIS
GENERAL DIRECTION AND AT A SIMILAR SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER... THE DEPRESSION WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN A STRONGER
STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A
DEEPENING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA
COASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY DUE TO
THE CENTER REFORMATION...AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/1500Z 32.6N 78.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 33.3N 77.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 34.2N 76.3W 40 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 35.1N 75.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 36.5N 73.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 40.5N 68.0W 45 KT
96HR VT 23/1200Z...ABSORBED

[cycloneye]

CRISTOBAL!!!

744
WTNT33 KNHC 191746
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
200 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...CRISTOBAL FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...LIKELY TO
STRENGTHEN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 225
MILES...365 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
RECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION......32.8 N...78.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...195 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 205
MILES...330 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...33.0 N...77.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
500 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
OF 58 KT AT 2500 FT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER...SFMR DATA AT THAT SAME LOCATION SHOWED ONLY 35 KT AND
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VALUES AND IS SET TO 40 KT.
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARM
GULF STREAM WATERS AND EXPERIENCES LIGHT SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A
SHIFOR/SHIPS CONSENSUS. STRANGELY...THE GFDL/HWRF STILL REFUSE TO
INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/6. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC REASONING. A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM AT ABOUT
THE SAME HEADING AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SYSTEM NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THEREAFTER...THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST
BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING MIDDLE-
LATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MODELS DO DIVERGE A
LITTLE ON WHETHER THE STORM WILL BE TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT
IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH OR STAY MORE SEPARATE FROM THAT FEATURE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A TAD FASTER AND A LITTLE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 36 HR...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/2100Z 33.0N 77.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 33.7N 77.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 34.7N 75.6W 50 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 35.9N 73.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 38.0N 71.3W 55 KT
72HR VT 22/1800Z 43.5N 64.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 23/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[HURAKAN]

151
WTNT33 KNHC 192347
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...210 KM...EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...33.2 N...77.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT23 KNHC 200245
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
0300 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 77.5W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 77.5W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 77.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 34.1N 76.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 35.2N 75.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE 35SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 45SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 36.8N 73.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 39.0N 70.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 45.0N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 77.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT33 KNHC 200250
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

...CRISTOBAL PARALLELING THE COAST...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES... 70 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 170
MILES...270 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2-3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...33.4 N...77.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

WTNT43 KNHC 200251
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008

SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO INDICATION THAT
CRISTOBAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY THE STORM IS
CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED...WITH THE COLD TOPS LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF
BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 40 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AROUND 06Z.
THE MORE OBVIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS DO FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THESE BEING LIGHT SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT...AND WARM WATERS BELOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
PRIMARILY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. AT PRESENT THE WIND
FIELD IS VERY ASYMMETRIC. HOWEVER...IF THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING
OCCURS...CRISTOBAL COULD WRAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS AROUND TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.

THERE HAS BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE INITIAL
MOTION IS 045/5. CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...
VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS IT ENTERS THE
WESTERLIES. ONLY THE NOGAPS AND GFNI TAKE CRISTOBAL CLOSE TO
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT CRISTOBAL WILL
BECOME ABSORBED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...ALTHOUGH I'VE ELECTED TO SHOW THE SYSTEM AS A SEPARATE
ENTITY A LITTLE BIT LONGER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 33.4N 77.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 34.1N 76.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 35.2N 75.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 36.8N 73.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 22/0000Z 39.0N 70.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 23/0000Z 45.0N 63.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 24/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

827
WTNT33 KNHC 200557
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LITTLE
RIVER INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 60 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.
A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST...WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...33.7 N...77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Chacor]

Canadian Hurricane Centre warning no. 2:

WOCN31 CWHX 200600
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED BY THE
CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3.00 AM ADT
SUNDAY 20 JULY 2008.

THE NEXT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 9.00 AM ADT

... CRISTOBAL SHOWS NO SIGN OF STREGTHENING...

1. CURRENT POSITION, STRENGTH, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MOTION

AT 3.00 AM ADT... TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 33.8 N AND LONGITUDE 77.0 W... ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES
OR 95 KM EAST SOUTHEAST OF WILMINGTON . MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS... 74 KM/H... AND CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
1004 MB. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 KNOTS... 9 KM/H.

2. FORECAST POSITION, CENTRAL PRESSURE AND STRENGTH

DATE TIME LAT LON MSLP MAX WIND
ADT MB KTS KMH
JUL 20 3.00 AM 33.8N 77.0W 1004 40 74
JUL 20 3.00 PM 34.6N 75.8W 999 50 93
JUL 21 3.00 AM 36.0N 74.0W 996 55 102
JUL 21 3.00 PM 37.9N 71.5W 997 50 93
JUL 22 3.00 AM 40.8N 67.9W 1000 45 83
JUL 22 3.00 PM 43.3N 65.0W 1004 35 65
JUL 23 3.00 AM 46.9N 60.8W 1012 25 46

3. PUBLIC WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
GIVEN FORECAST TRACK, EXPECT SOME RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY
OVER NORTHEASTERN NOVA SCOTIA.

4. MARINE WEATHER IMPACTS AND WARNINGS SUMMARY
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS BEGINNING GEORGES BANK TUESDAY MORNING AND
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

5. TECHNICAL DISCUSSION

A. ANALYSIS
WILMINGTON RADAR COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE BOUYS GIVE GOOD IDEA
OF POSITION. CONVECTION ON SAT PIX NOT WELL ORGANISED EXCEPT
FOR SUDDEN BLOSSOMING JUST SOUTH OF CENTRE AT 03 ZULU.
QUICKSCAT AND ASCAT DID NOT SCAN OVER CRISTOBAL.

B. PROGNOSTIC
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK. AS MENTIONED
CRISTOBAL IS EMBEDDED IN A BROAD UPPER RIDGE. THIS RIDGE LIES
ROUGHLY ALONG THE 28 NORTH LATITUDE SO THIS SHOULD NUDGE THE
SYSTEM SLOWLY INTO THE UPPER LATITUDES. WESTERLIES
KICK IN AT 40 NORTH. UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT APPROACH UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING SO AT THAT TIME WE SHOULD BEGIN TO GET A
GOOD HANDLE ON CRISTOBAL AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER WINDS
AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. CRISTOBAL WILL CROSS THE NORTH WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM MONDAY EVENING SO WEAKENING IS A CERTAINTY
THEREAFTER.

C. PUBLIC WEATHER

A WARM FRONT WILL CAUSE RAIN ON MONDAY FOR NOVA SCOTIA. WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE FEEDING INTO FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY.. WE
EXPECT MUCH THE SAME FOR TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

D. MARINE WEATHER

WILL PUT GALE FORCE WINDS INTO MARINE EXTENDED FORCAST FOR
SOUTHWESTERN WATERS OF THE MARITIME MARINE DISTRICT.

PREDICTED WIND RADII (NM)
TIME GALES STORMS HURRICANE
NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW NE SE SW NW
20/06Z 0 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
20/18Z 60 120 70 30 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
21/06Z 120 180 90 60 0 90 0 0 0 0 0 0
21/18Z 120 180 90 60 0 90 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/06Z 120 180 90 45 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
22/18Z 120 120 60 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
23/06Z 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


END CAMPBELL

[HURAKAN]

540
WTNT33 KNHC 201150
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...JUST OFFSHORE FROM NORTH
CAROLINA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF LITTLE
RIVER INLET AT THE SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.8 WEST OR ABOUT 40
MILES...65 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH
CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.
A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST BY TOMORROW.

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50
MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 5
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...34.1 N...76.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

184
WTNT33 KNHC 201459
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...CRISTOBAL STILL HUGGING THE COAST...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LITTLE
RIVER INLET NORTHWARD TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST OR ABOUT 15
MILES... 20 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 70 MILES...115 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...34.5 N...76.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

611
WTNT43 KNHC 201500
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT...WITH SFMR MEASURMENTS OF ABOUT 45 KT. SINCE
THEN...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SATELLITE IMAGES SO THE
MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS HAS SEEMINGLY PREVENTED CRISTOBAL FROM
DEVELOPING MUCH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE GFS SUGGESTS A MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...AND A LITTLE BIT OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AT THAT
TIME. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...040/5. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON AN ACCELERATING TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS
CRISTOBAL BECOMES PICKED UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC
TRACK. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO START TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND BE FULLY ABSORBED BY 3
DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1500Z 34.5N 76.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 35.2N 75.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 36.7N 73.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 38.9N 70.2W 50 KT
48HR VT 22/1200Z 42.5N 65.9W 45 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

079
WTNT33 KNHC 201744
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032008
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS A LITTLE...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY
TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES...40 KM...EAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 50
MILES...80 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR... WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM
TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...34.6 N...76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB