Dolly HPC advisories

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1545 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

AT 1145 AM EDT...1545 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE
BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 84.2W AT 20/1545Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 175SE 100SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 84.2W AT 20/1545Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.7N 86.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.1N 89.5W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.2N 92.2W...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.5N 96.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 84.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 1145 AM EDT...1545 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE
BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1145 AM EDT...1545Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 270
MILES...435 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 230 MILES...365
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY
ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP
TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1145 AM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...84.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

WE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AS IT HAS
CROSSED THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH SEVERAL
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS SEARCHING FOR A WELL-DEFINED
CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. NOT UNTIL THIS MORNING DID THE
AIRCRAFT DETECT SUCH A CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MORE
THAN ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REQUISITE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO
ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING
WINDS OF 35-40 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THIS MORNING
THE SFMR ON THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS AS STRONG AS 42 KT...ALONG
WITH WINDS OF 50 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. IN ADDITION...NOAA BUOY
42057...SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...MEASURED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE FOR ABOUT FOUR HOURS THIS
MORNING...AS STRONG AS 39 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...THE
CYCLONE IS IMMEDIATELY DESIGNATED A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 40 KT. THIS IS CURRENTLY A SPRAWLING SYSTEM WITH 34-KT
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH
VERY RECENTLY CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE
CIRCULATION CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/15...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A
NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA IN BETWEEN DOLLY AND
CRISTOBAL. THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS A RESULT...THE FORWARD MOTION OF DOLLY IS LIKELY
TO BECOME SLOWER WHEN IT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN THE
SPREAD IS GREATER ON DAYS 3-5...WITH SOME MODELS EVENTUALLY
FORECASTING DOLLY TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE OTHERS HEAD
INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THEY ALSO DISAGREE GREATLY ON HOW LONG IT
MIGHT TAKE FOR DOLLY TO MAKE FINAL LANDFALL. THE MOST PRUDENT
APPROACH FOR NOW IS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THERE ARE TWO INHIBITING FACTORS FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT
TERM...WITH THE OBVIOUS ONE BEING INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASS OF
YUCATAN TONIGHT. ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST
OF DOLLY IS IMPARTING SOME WIND SHEAR THAT IS PART OF THE REASON
FOR SUCH AN ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN. THAT LOW...HOWEVER...IS
HEADED SOUTHWESTWARD AND OUT OF THE WAY...AND WHEN DOLLY REACHES
THE GULF OF MEXICO IT IS LIKELY TO FIND ITSELF BENEATH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...SO CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING OVER THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL SOLUTION OF A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL FORECAST
OF A HURRICANE IN THAT AREA IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/1545Z 18.4N 84.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 19.7N 86.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 21.1N 89.5W 40 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
36HR VT 22/0000Z 22.2N 92.2W 45 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO
48HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 23/1200Z 24.5N 96.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 97.5W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1200Z 27.0N 100.0W 35 KT...INLAND

[chadtm80]

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

..DOLLY ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN

AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250
MILES...400 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 200 MILES...320
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE DOLLY REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY
ONCE DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TODAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP
TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...18.6 N...84.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
2100 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 85.0W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 175SE 100SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 85.0W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 84.5W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.1N 86.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.6N 89.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.9N 92.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.8N 94.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.0N 96.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 26.0N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 27.0N 101.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 85.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

..DOLLY HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA


A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...350 KM...EAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO AND ABOUT 165 MILES...265
KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF ON TUESDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE DOLLY
REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTER DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP
TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.9 N...85.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

DOLLY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT
QUITE AS WELL-DEFINED AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT. UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING...EVEN TO THE WEST...AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF DOLLY IS HEADED
RAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS WEAKENING. DOLLY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF AT ALL...AS IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY TOMORROW. ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...
HOWEVER...IT WILL BE SITUATED BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE AND OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 28
CELSIUS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...AND ASSUMING THE CYCLONE REMAINS
INTACT AND VERTICALLY ALIGNED AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER YUCATAN...
STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
ALL OF THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST THAT TO
HAPPEN...AND ALL FORECAST DOLLY TO ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT
GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT LONG-RANGE
INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.

EVEN WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE
DIFFICULT TO GAUGE...BUT IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/12. THE MODELS
FORECAST A SOMEWHAT FASTER FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LAGS A LITTLE BEHIND THE
CONSENSUS DURING THAT PERIOD...GIVEN THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION AND
THAT THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION FROM THE MODEL FIELDS THAT DOLLY
SHOULD ACCELERATE MUCH. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST
IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER DOLLY
REACHES THE GULF...SO THEY ALL FORECAST A DECREASE IN FORWARD
MOTION STARTING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK MODEL SPREAD IS NOT
ALL THAT LARGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED
MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER AT THE END. IT
IS FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE DOLLY WILL MAKE FINAL
LANDFALL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/2100Z 18.9N 85.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 21/0600Z 20.1N 86.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 21/1800Z 21.6N 89.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 22/0600Z 22.9N 92.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 22/1800Z 23.8N 94.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 23/1800Z 25.0N 96.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 24/1800Z 26.0N 99.0W 35 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 25/1800Z 27.0N 101.5W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

...DOLLY CONTINUES TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A
NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO TONIGHT...EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE DOLLY REACHES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AFTER DOLLY EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF UP
TO 8 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...19.3 N...85.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
0300 UTC MON JUL 21 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 85.8W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 85.8W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 88.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.3N 90.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.4N 92.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.3N 94.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.5N 97.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...175NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 27.0N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 85.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008

DATA FROM A NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS
MAINTAINING VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS
ESTIMATED BY THE SFMR...HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT. SINCE DOLLY COULD
REGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BY
HANGING ON A TECHNICALITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/12. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TEMPORARY
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST OF DOLLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER
EASTERLIES. DOLLY SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. BY 72 HOURS...THIS RIDGE
WEAKENS...AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN IN
THE WESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE OF A STRAIGHT
LINE TRACK BUT IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF A VERY
TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY BE KEEPING DOLLY FROM
ORGANIZING FOR NOW...BUT THIS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR.
ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT...NO SHEAR...AND WARM GULF WATERS. THE
QUANTITATIVE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BLENDS THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO
THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0300Z 19.6N 85.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 20.9N 88.1W 45 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 90.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 22/1200Z 23.4N 92.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 23/0000Z 24.3N 94.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/0000Z 25.5N 97.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 25/0000Z 27.0N 100.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
200 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

..DOLLY MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

SATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM CANCUN
MEXICO INDICATE THAT DOLLY LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE
CENTER IS REFORMING A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE
86.8 WEST OR VERY NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL HEADING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS FORECAST TO CROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AFTER DOLLY MOVES AWAY
FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS
MORNING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...21.1 N...86.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 AM EDT.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM CANCUN MEXICO INDICATE
THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REFORMED TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC DATA CAST DOUBT ON
THE EXISTENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. SINCE THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO GENERATE VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS...AND IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CENTER WILL SOON REAPPEAR...IT IS
PRUDENT TO CONTINUE ISSUING ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ON DOLLY.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST
DVORAK ANALYSES FROM TAFB. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SEEMS TO BE INCREASING ITS SEPARATION DISTANCE
FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ALSO DIMINISHING ITS SHEARING
INFLUENCE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF DOLLY AND THIS...COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...PRESAGES INTENSIFICATION. THE CURRENT NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO SIMILAR
TO THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

WITH THE LACK OF A SURFACE CENTER AND THE REFORMATION...INITIAL
MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. MY BEST GUESS...305/13...IS NOT MUCH
DIFFERENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A SLOWING OF
FORWARD SPEED BY 48 HOURS...THEREAFTER...THE KEY PLAYER IN THE
STEERING PATTERN FOR DOLLY IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STRENGTHS AND
CONFIGURATIONS OF THIS RIDGE AROUND 72 HOURS AND DIFFERENT
LATITUDES OF LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.
ALTHOUGH ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN 2 TO 3
DAYS TIME...INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY.

ANOTHER NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM LATER
THIS MORNING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/0900Z 21.3N 87.4W 45 KT
12HR VT 21/1800Z 22.6N 89.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 22/0600Z 23.6N 92.2W 55 KT
36HR VT 22/1800Z 24.4N 94.2W 65 KT
48HR VT 23/0600Z 25.0N 95.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 24/0600Z 26.0N 98.0W 65 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/0600Z 26.5N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN...ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE GULF...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH MEXICO. THIS TROPICAL
STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DOLLY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM EDT...0900Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
DOLLY WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.4 WEST
OR ABOUT 150 MILES...240 KM...EAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WHEN THE CENTER OF THE
STORM MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER. DOLLY COULD PRODUCE WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA THIS
MORNING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...21.3 N...87.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
800 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.

INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DOLLY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 65 MILES...105 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE STORM MOVES OUT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND DOLLY COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON PRELIMINARY REPORTS
FROM NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND IN WESTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...88.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1500 UTC MON JUL 21 2008

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O`CONNOR. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O`CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S.
BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO RIO SAN FERNANDO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 89.5W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 89.5W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 88.7W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.0N 91.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.2N 93.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.1N 95.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.9N 96.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.5N 98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.0N 100.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 89.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

..DOLLY NOW OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO


AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
TEXAS COAST FROM BROWNSVILLE NORTHWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 AM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO NORTHWARD TO THE U.S.
BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LA PESCA MEXICO NORTHWARD
TO RIO SAN FERNANDO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM THE BORDER WITH BELIZE TO CAMPECHE MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON
THIS TRACK...DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA
IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...22.1 N...89.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT NOW THAT DOLLY HAS A CLOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION...WHICH HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY CONFIRMED THE
EXISTENCE OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD...AND FOUND THAT MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 45 KT. THE DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOW STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
CIRCULATION...AND OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS. A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SO THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...AND THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
ENTIRE OVER-WATER FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM. IN ABOUT 18-24
HOURS...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 29
CELSIUS...AND A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AN AREA
WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER RESERVOIR OF WARM WATER BENEATH THE SURFACE.
AS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS...STRENGTHENING APPEARS
LIKELY...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE
CIRCULATION...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST...SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR A TRUE
INNER CORE TO DEVELOP. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE GFDL
SOLUTION...IN CALLING FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SINCE THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL
ARE UNCERTAIN...THE FORECAST WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS ONLY
RESULTS FROM THE 72-HOUR POINT BEING INLAND...AND A STRENGTHENING
TREND IS FORECAST UP TO THE TIME OF FINAL LANDFALL.

DOLLY IS STILL MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...300/16...TO THE SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS INTO THE
WESTERN GULF. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...WHICH REMAINS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
THERE ARE VERY RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK...SO IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
LANDFALL IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK.

THE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES FOR THE COAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/1500Z 22.1N 89.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 91.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 22/1200Z 24.2N 93.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 23/0000Z 25.1N 95.2W 70 KT
48HR VT 23/1200Z 25.9N 96.4W 80 KT
72HR VT 24/1200Z 26.5N 98.5W 50 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/1200Z 27.0N 100.5W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

..DOLLY MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF


A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED
STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA
PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 475
MILES...765 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF MOTION. ON
THIS TRACK...DOLLY WILL BE APPROACHING THE COAST OF THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY COULD BECOME A
HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS
1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...22.8 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
2100 UTC MON JUL 21 2008

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED
STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA
PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREAS
LATER TONIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 91.2W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 91.2W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 90.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.0N 93.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.9N 94.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.8N 96.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 26.4N 97.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 27.0N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 91.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

..DOLLY EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN GULF


A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED
STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA
PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREAS
LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.2 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES...680 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COAST OF THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE REACHING THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N...91.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

THE STRUCTURE OF DOLLY APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING VERY GRADUAL
CHANGES. THE OUTERMOST CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING
TODAY...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW MUCH
SMALLER...AS DETERMINED FROM STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER
DATA THAT RECENTLY INDICATED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 45 KT ABOUT
45 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DOLLY IS HEADED TOWARD A RELATIVE
MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AND IT IS BENEATH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO. IT SEEMS TO BE TAKING A WHILE...HOWEVER...FOR AN INNER
CORE TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...SO IT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH
DOLLY WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ITS ENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THE INTENSITY
MODELS FORECAST AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND UNTIL FINAL
LANDFALL...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING.
THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST ABOUT 65 KT IN 48 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 75-80 KT. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS SO CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AGAIN LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER GFDL SOLUTION. ANOTHER COMPLICATION
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT KNOWING EXACTLY HOW FAST DOLLY
WILL REACH THE COAST. IF IT MAKES LANDFALL SOONER THAN THE
OFFICIAL TRACK INDICATES...IT MIGHT RUN OUT OF TIME TO REACH THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY. BUT IF THE OPPOSITE
OCCURS...DOLLY WOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER THE WARM WATERS.

DOLLY CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
REMAINS 300/16. WHILE IT IS A LITTLE UNNERVING TO OBSERVE THIS FAST
MOTION AND FORECAST THE CENTER OF DOLLY TO TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO
REACH THE COAST...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE
FORWARD SPEED WILL BE ABOUT HALF ITS CURRENT VALUE BY TOMORROW
NIGHT. THE MODELS AGREE SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE SLOW-DOWN...SO
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED...IS RIGHT
IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MODELS DO NOT GO INLAND IN
EXACTLY THE SAME LOCATIONS...HOWEVER. THE GFS AND UKMET FORECAST
DOLLY TO CROSS THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFDL
AND HWRF TRACKS GO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS...GIVING RESPECT TO THE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NWS HURRICANE MODELS...THE GFDL AND HWRF.
THIS NEW TRACK IS NOT MEANINGFULLY DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS
ONE...EXCEPT TO BE A LITTLE FASTER. IT IS AGAIN IMPORTANT TO
EMPHASIZE THAT...WITH RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL
TRACK...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION IMPLIED
BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 23.1N 91.2W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 24.0N 93.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 24.9N 94.9W 60 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 25.8N 96.1W 70 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 26.4N 97.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 27.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
700 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...DOLLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT JOGS WESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO MEXICO
NORTHWARD...ACROSS THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED
STATES...AND ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LA
PESCA NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO...AND FOR THE TEXAS
COAST FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREAS
LATER TONIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST OR ABOUT 380
MILES...610 KM...EAST OF LA CRUZ MEXICO AND ABOUT 405 MILES...650
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS DOLLY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR
16 MPH...25 KM/HR. HOWEVER...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND WILL BE NEAR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY
WEDNESDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO TO FOUR
INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO SIX INCHES.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N...91.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
0300 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH
OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN
MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN
FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 92.8W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......175NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 92.8W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 92.0W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N 94.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.8N 95.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.6N 96.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.2N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 26.5N 101.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 92.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2008

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 10 PM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH
OF PORT O'CONNOR TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN
MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN
FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES...515 KM...EAST OF LA PESCA MEXICO AND ABOUT 435 MILES...695
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN COAST
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4-6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...23.1 N...92.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

DOLLY HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE THIS
EVENING...AND NOW SHOWS EVIDENCE OF WRAPPING A BAND IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AGAINST THE EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH HAS BEEN DECREASING.
DATA FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT...HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
CENTER IS SOUTH OF THE APPARENT INFRARED CENTER. DOLLY IS ALSO
MOVING OVER A WARM GULF EDDY. GIVEN THESE CHANGES...STRENGTHENING
SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT YET IDEAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF
DOLLY...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THESE FEATURES TO BECOME
BETTER CONNECTED JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...DOLLY
IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A COLD EDDY IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS...WHEN
THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN IT IS
NOW...AND THIS ENCOUNTER COULD PROVIDE A DAMPER ON THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE IN THE LAST HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE
BOTTOM LINE OF ALL THIS IS THAT DOLLY VERY LIKELY WILL BECOME A
HURRICANE...BUT THE ODDS ARE AGAINST IT BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15. THE GUIDANCE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY
DID A NICE JOB IN FORECASTING THE INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY...AND ARE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW
SIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF DOLLY
WEAKENS ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER EAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO ERODE SLIGHTLY AS A PAIR OF
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE A BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH
THE GFS TO THE SOUTH AND THE GFDL TO THE NORTH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/0300Z 23.1N 92.8W 45 KT
12HR VT 22/1200Z 23.9N 94.4W 55 KT
24HR VT 23/0000Z 24.8N 95.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 23/1200Z 25.6N 96.9W 75 KT
48HR VT 24/0000Z 26.2N 98.0W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/0000Z 26.5N 101.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[JonathanBelles]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 220546
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
100 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY HEADED TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO
SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.3 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES...515 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN
COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...23.2 N...93.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[mpic]

WTNT24 KNHC 220832
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
0900 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO
SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 93.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 93.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 93.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.1N 95.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.0N 96.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.7N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 26.0N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N 102.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 93.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[HURAKAN]

651
WTNT34 KNHC 221200
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
700 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY A LITTLE STRONGER...NOAA PLANE IN THE AREA...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO PORT O'CONNOR. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO
NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO
SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 265
MILES...425 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY WITH A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED
BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF DOLLY SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.

DATA FROM FROM A NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND DOLLY IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...23.7 N...94.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1000 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO PORT O`CONNOR HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER
BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLLY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 230
MILES...370 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE
ENXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY OR WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE WAS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...24.0 N...94.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1500 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO PORT O`CONNOR HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF
TEXAS FROM BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER
BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE UNITED STATES. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 94.5W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......140NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 94.5W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 94.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 24.8N 95.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 25.7N 97.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 26.0N 98.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.0N 99.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 94.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS
GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE REPORTED AN
ISOLATED PEAK OF 65 KNOTS...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND AN
OPEN EYEWALL OF 20 NMI IN DIAMETER. SSMI DATA SHOWS THE EARLY
STAGES OF A CONVECTING RING AROUND THE CENTER. CONVECTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH A LITTLE
BETTER DEFINED OUTFLOW. BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60
KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER DOLLY.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH WARM WATERS SHOULD
RESULT IN STRENGTHENING. BOTH GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS
HAVE GONE UP AND DOWN WITH EACH RUN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS
UPWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DOLLY TO 80 KNOTS AT
LANDFALL...5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE.

FIXES FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
INDICATED UNTIL LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF DOLLY AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN
MORE TO WEST...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR THE
MEXICO/US BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE RE-EMPHASIZED
THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON
THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.

THE CENTER OF DOLLY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON BROWNSVILLE RADAR.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 24.0N 94.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 24.8N 95.6W 70 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 25.7N 97.0W 80 KT
36HR VT 24/0000Z 26.0N 98.0W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 99.5W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA