ATL: Invest 97L in Central Atlantic

[Ed Mahmoud]

No need to disagree on track, it is already pretty far North, and my gut feeling is that this doesn't develop for at least several more days, if ever.


I have a hunch, not supported by a lot of real science, other than only 5 days left, no more Atlantic Basin TCs before August.


Season Cancel!


Just kidding, 3 named storms in July is pretty impressive.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This has about the same chance of hitting the United states as me winning a million dollars by just walking across the street. It won't happen. Unless another low develops on the southern part. In that case if the trough remains or dugs it will be recurved out to sea to.

Also if shear don't let up I don't expect anything, but if it does maybe just maybe we could get us a north Atlantic cyclone.

[Cyclenall]

there is a big weakness in the ridge to the north of the low. That woiuld explain why the models are turning it north immediately. In fact, it has not been moving west but NW

A tropical wave recurving out to sea? How many times does that happen?

[MGC]

I would be surprised if 97L did anything but fall apart in the next couple of days.....MGC

[cycloneye]

Still the LLC is exposed to the SW of the mass of convection.

[Derek Ortt]

waves have turned to the NW and north before developing

ever hear of Floyd 1993? Danny 2003?

it is fairly common... just you seem to have forgot those cases (and many others that did not develop)

[Cyclenall]

waves have turned to the NW and north before developing

ever hear of Floyd 1993? Danny 2003?

it is fairly common... just you seem to have forgot those cases (and many others that did not develop)

I haven't seen it happen within the last few years though. I wasn't tracking the tropics in 2003 and certainly not 1993!

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 262339
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IS ISSUING PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY...LOCATED
INLAND ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF EL PASO TEXAS.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A DAY OR TWO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[storms NC]

Floyd of 93 or 99?

[cycloneye]

Will 97L ever break the streak of ssd clasification of too weak?

26/2345 UTC 19.0N 48.3W TOO WEAK 97L
26/1745 UTC 18.8N 47.3W TOO WEAK 97L
26/1145 UTC 18.2N 46.2W TOO WEAK 97L
26/0545 UTC 17.9N 45.5W TOO WEAK 97L
25/2345 UTC 17.8N 44.2W TOO WEAK 97L
24/2345 UTC 14.6N 37.0W TOO WEAK 97L
24/1800 UTC 14.6N 35.9W TOO WEAK 97L
24/1200 UTC 14.7N 35.1W TOO WEAK 97L
23/1145 UTC 16.2N 26.0W TOO WEAK 97L
23/0545 UTC 15.7N 26.0W TOO WEAK 97L
22/2345 UTC 15.1N 25.5W TOO WEAK INV

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Derek Ortt]

Floyd 1993

[SapphireSea]

I believe whatever is at the surface will likely move W/WNW, because of shear however I would think the mid level center is displaced and would travel WNW/NW, if anything, any actual center decoupled the first night shear got a-hold of the system and it's pretty much curtains for the Low Level Center and Fishing for the MLC. There is still a very small chance for one of them to develop, but its very unlikely and if it happens it will be slow.

I may need to be corrected by you Ortt, but maybe this sounds plausible?

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC ATCF best track:

AL, 97, 2008072700, , BEST, 0, 190N, 483W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 25, 0, 0

[Derek Ortt]

I think due to the low-level weakness, even this sheared system should move NW

[abajan]

...Just kidding, 3 named storms in July is pretty impressive.

That's 4 named storms, isn't it?

[lonelymike]

Of marine interest only. Back to WOW for the next two weeks

[RL3AO]

...Just kidding, 3 named storms in July is pretty impressive.

That's 4 named storms, isn't it?

Arthur was in May/June.

[cheezyWXguy]

...Just kidding, 3 named storms in July is pretty impressive.

That's 4 named storms, isn't it?

Nope. Arthur was in early June.

[wxman57]

there is a big weakness in the ridge to the north of the low. That woiuld explain why the models are turning it north immediately. In fact, it has not been moving west but NW

A tropical wave recurving out to sea? How many times does that happen?

I'd say that most tropical waves which move off the west coast of Africa as far north as 97L did (15-16N) track out to sea north of the Caribbean. Take a look at a water vapor loop of the Atlantic and you'll see a big upper low in its immediate path and a quite strong upper trof east of the U.S. It's moving into a large area of southerly flow. Nowhere to go but north. Development chances pretty low. Fish chance 100%.

Now, let's hope for 2-3 weeks of quiet tropics.

[SapphireSea]

wxman, I can see that in the winds as well. Even if there were no real evident or weak steering flow to push it N. It's own vort would move to the north because of the C. Effect without a real strong ridge to hold it W correct? In this case I guess it would make a pretty sharp turn to the N when it encounters the S winds in the mid-upper level steering levels?

This would mean any low at at any depth would recurve well E of Bermuda looking at all steering layers, and if they remain the same, if it gets above 16n.

Would that be accurate to assume?