Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[cycloneye]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al982008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200807300106
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2008, DB, O, 2008073000, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982008
AL, 98, 2008073000, , BEST, 0, 140N, 179W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 850, 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/


Link to thread at Talking Tropics:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=102148&start=0

[RL3AO]

Bah...I just saw it and raced here to make the thread.

[weatherSnoop]

Not quite fast enough to beat the "eye"

[Ed Mahmoud]

Offering no predictions whatsoever, but a tad far North for a storm that won't sleep with Lucca Brazzi.





Edit to add: Now, 10ºN and 35ºW (about) might not have concrete galoshes if it developed, but it isn't an invest.

[CajunMama]

Ceye won't let you beat him

[MiamiensisWx]

I'll repost this one from http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=1753550#p1753550 for others.

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

Personally, I've been very skeptical in regards to the vitality of this system's future and even its development over the past few days. The main issue is the thermal ridge at 700 mb and very stable SAL to the north and west of the surface low, which is exiting the coast at a high latitude like Bertha, reflecting the persistent northward bias of several African lows this year. The capping from the SAL is denoted on satellite imagery by the stratocumulus across the eastern and central subtropical Atlantic. When combined with the fact that the low level (850 mb) vorticity associated with this wave was not as great as pre-Bertha, I have strongly doubted this system's long term prospects. However, if it can maintain strong convection with greater low level inflow in the vicinity of the surface low, it may maintain itself or even intensify over the next several days. It will encounter low shear within the short term, though the SAL and cooler SSTs/OHC north and west of the Cape Verde islands will be a limiting factor. Regardless, it is noted that Bertha also faced similar ills with the SAL and SSTs/OHC, and it still intensified and eventually became a hurricane because of the very conducive upper air synoptic regime. Overall, if convection can continually develop over the surface low, this one may receive an INVEST classification and slowly intensify to a tropical storm over the next several days. The system will likely encounter upper level shear in the medium to long term, as an upper low moves southward, which is supported by WV data and the operational GFS. Since the synoptic environment will not be as favorable as Bertha, I definitely do not anticipate a stronger system than TS status (at most). It's a definite fish (i.e. not a threat to any land mass, including Bermuda/Lesser Antilles/Caribbean) as well.

...and I apologize for my preceding MJO comment's superficial "harshness" to Luis in another thread. It was not intentional. I should have definitely offered a more informative and detailed analysis without the unintended negative connotations, which were not intentional, though they were a result of other issues and carelessness. Again, I'll try to present details and clarification (without "harsh" aspects) in subsequent posts.

[RL3AO]

I would have gotten him if I wasn't following John Lackey.

[cycloneye]

Bah...I just saw it and raced here to make the thread.

I was in that site since this morning waiting for the release.

[Cyclone1]

Ceye won't let you beat him

Ain't that the truth. Since posting here, I've only gotten the satisfaction of posting an invest once. And that one didn't do anything.

One day Luis.... *shifty eyes*

[RL3AO]

Ceye won't let you beat him

Ain't that the truth. Since posting here, I've only gotten the satisfaction of posting an invest once. And that one didn't do anything.

One day Luis.... *shifty eyes*

Ceye and I posted 95L at the same time (I beat him by less than a minute). Otherwise I think hes 8 for 9 in the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

I would have gotten him if I wasn't following John Lackey.

I was watching too the no hitter that has gone away.Oh boy I am straying away from 98L.

I agree with Miamiwx that this will be a fish after it moves thru the Cape Verde Islands.

[Gustywind]

Any models on that "futur fish" Cycloneye?

[cycloneye]

Any models on that "futur fish" Cycloneye?

No BAM model guidance yet but as soon they come out,a thread for model runs will be made.

[Gustywind]

Any models on that "futur fish" Cycloneye?

No BAM model guidance yet but as soon they come out,a thread for model runs will be made.

Ok tkanks my friend, so it's matter of time ...

[cycloneye]

It looks like the Cape Verde Islands will get some bad weather as this moves over that chain of islands.Its getting better organized.Pic from 9 PM EDT.

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

Absolutely Cycloneye, convection is on the increase, seems better organized and more concentrated at this moment nice sat pic appearence

[MiamiensisWx]

Strong convection is developing directly over the surface low and closed LLC's coordinates per QuikSCAT.

EUMETSAT precip rates

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds32.png

TD could be classified tomorrow because of close proximity to Cape Verde islands and organization (if deemed necessary). Strongest thunderstorms could produce TS gusts.

[srainhoutx]

Had a feeling this was coming. A little over 2 weeks out, but something to watch...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Let's see how the Bermuda Ridge sets up...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Possible long tracker.

[MiamiensisWx]

Can anyone post the link to the ASOS for Sal, Cape Verde islands? I'm perusing available surface observations from the islands.