ATL: Tropical Storm Edouard Model Runs

[vacanechaser]

Here's a plot of the 12Z models. Note the northward shift overnight. I still think landfall will be upper TX coast to SW LA, not mid TX coast. Early model runs are almost always too far south/left in the Gulf.

whats your time frame?? when do you think landfall???




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Ed Mahmoud]

12Z GFS pretty consistent with earlier runs. Not quite a closed surface low (could be resolution issues, maybe a weak surface low) with 850 mb vort max suggesting landfall near TX/LA state line.

Runs at 0Z tonight will be initialized with recon data, assuming flight isn't scrubbed for whatever reason.




NAM - landfall near/South of GLS as TD or storm



12Z CMC similar to NAM

[SouthFloridawx]

886
WHXX01 KWBC 031830
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1830 UTC SUN AUG 3 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912008) 20080803 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080803 1800 080804 0600 080804 1800 080805 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.3N 88.0W 28.1N 89.4W 28.6N 91.1W 29.1N 93.0W
BAMD 28.3N 88.0W 27.9N 89.6W 28.0N 91.8W 28.6N 94.0W
BAMM 28.3N 88.0W 28.2N 89.7W 28.4N 91.9W 29.0N 94.1W
LBAR 28.3N 88.0W 28.1N 89.5W 28.3N 91.7W 28.9N 94.2W
SHIP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 39KTS 47KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080805 1800 080806 1800 080807 1800 080808 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 30.3N 94.8W 32.1N 97.6W 33.9N 98.6W 35.2N 98.2W
BAMD 29.3N 96.4W 30.7N 101.3W 32.2N 105.3W 33.7N 108.3W
BAMM 29.8N 96.3W 31.4N 100.5W 33.2N 103.5W 34.8N 105.1W
LBAR 29.5N 96.8W 30.5N 101.1W 31.8N 103.5W 32.9N 104.9W
SHIP 57KTS 60KTS 57KTS 51KTS
DSHP 38KTS 28KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.3N LONCUR = 88.0W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 28.7N LONM12 = 87.0W DIRM12 = 204DEG SPDM12 = 3KT
LATM24 = 29.5N LONM24 = 87.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[KWT]

SHIPS now have the intial strength at 30kts and also has this getting upto 50kts before landfall, mid range TS but not far from the top end really.

[SouthFloridawx]

Upgrade for 91L if they can close off a circulation.

[SouthFloridawx]

And if they do close it off and declare TD or TS, watches and warnings would have to start going up pretty quick-like.

[Aric Dunn]

SHIPS now have the intial strength at 30kts and also has this getting upto 50kts before landfall, mid range TS but not far from the top end really.

12z gfdl brings it to a 71kt hurricane into houston

[Scorpion]

GFDL has a weak hurricane hitting Galveston

[njweather]

GFDL moves it almost due west for the next 24 hours. If I'm not mistaken, isn't the system moving SW at the moment?

[hwego7]

Code: Select all

431
WHXX01 KWBC 032003
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2003 UTC SUN AUG 3 2008
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE FIVE (AL052008) 20080803 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        080803  1800   080804  0600   080804  1800   080805  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    28.3N  88.0W   28.1N  89.4W   28.6N  91.1W   29.1N  93.0W
BAMD    28.3N  88.0W   27.9N  89.6W   28.0N  91.8W   28.6N  94.0W
BAMM    28.3N  88.0W   28.2N  89.7W   28.4N  91.9W   29.0N  94.1W
LBAR    28.3N  88.0W   28.1N  89.5W   28.3N  91.7W   28.9N  94.2W
SHIP        30KTS          39KTS          47KTS          52KTS
DSHP        30KTS          39KTS          47KTS          52KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        080805  1800   080806  1800   080807  1800   080808  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    30.3N  94.8W   32.1N  97.6W   33.9N  98.6W   35.2N  98.2W
BAMD    29.3N  96.4W   30.7N 101.3W   32.2N 105.3W   33.7N 108.3W
BAMM    29.8N  96.3W   31.4N 100.5W   33.2N 103.5W   34.8N 105.1W
LBAR    29.5N  96.8W   30.5N 101.1W   31.8N 103.5W   32.9N 104.9W
SHIP        57KTS          60KTS          57KTS          51KTS
DSHP        38KTS          28KTS          27KTS          27KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  28.3N LONCUR =  88.0W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR =   6KT
LATM12 =  28.7N LONM12 =  87.0W DIRM12 = 204DEG SPDM12 =   3KT
LATM24 =  29.5N LONM24 =  87.0W
WNDCUR =   30KT RMAXWD =   30NM WNDM12 =   20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD =  175NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN



[Extremeweatherguy]

[stevetampa33614]

Well gee this screnario is getting kind of rotten. Intensity wise this is unpredictable. Lets hope for a speedy conclusion so It doesnt get too big.

Also, it is now TD 5

[KWT]

Looks like the model guidence suggests middle to upper Texas coast being the possible landfall for Td5, I suppose extreme W.LA isn't totally out of the question but the more SW it heads the less likely that is looking.

[dixiebreeze]

Well gee this screnario is getting kind of rotten. Intensity wise this is unpredictable. Lets hope for a speedy conclusion so It doesnt get too big.

Also, it is now TD 5

Is your source NHC? Thanks

[njweather]

Well gee this screnario is getting kind of rotten. Intensity wise this is unpredictable. Lets hope for a speedy conclusion so It doesnt get too big.

Also, it is now TD 5

Is your source NHC? Thanks

I believe steve is referring to the following:

Code: Select all

000
WTNT45 KNHC 032033
TCDAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008

...

 THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH 50-55 KT WINDS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST
GFDL CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL... WHICH IS A SHARP CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  DUE TO
THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.

[SouthFloridawx]

We'll see what happens when the plug these new numbers into the model runs. Now that we know we have an LLC @ 30KTS and pressure at 1009, we'll get a more accurate run from the flight data.

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm rusty...when's the next run? 7pm update?

[Wx_Warrior]

GFS 18 rolling

12hr

[Wx_Warrior]

24

[JonathanBelles]

I would throw the model runs out until at least 00Z because of the latest development.