TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
2100 UTC SUN AUG 03 2008
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 88.1W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 88.1W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 88.0W
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 88.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Depression Edouard HPC advisories
Moderator: S2k Moderators
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY HAS SHOWN THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EXPOSED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. RECENT REPORTS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED
ENOUGH FOR THE LOW TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 36 KT AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/5. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH THE GFS AND
UKMET AIMING AT WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AIMING AT TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN
36-48 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WHICH HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A RAGGED
APPEARANCE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH 50-55 KT WINDS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST
GFDL CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL... WHICH IS A SHARP CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO
THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST ON THIS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 28.2N 88.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY HAS SHOWN THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EXPOSED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. RECENT REPORTS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED
ENOUGH FOR THE LOW TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 36 KT AND A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/5. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE
GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND
WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH THE GFS AND
UKMET AIMING AT WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE AIMING AT TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN
36-48 HR. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WHICH HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A RAGGED
APPEARANCE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH 50-55 KT WINDS IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST
GFDL CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL... WHICH IS A SHARP CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS RUNS. DUE TO
THIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET
REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST ON THIS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2100Z 28.2N 88.1W 30 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W 50 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 415 MILES...665 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR...AND
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N...88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 85
MILES...140 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 415 MILES...665 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR...AND
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM
MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N...88.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
TNT25 KNHC 032149
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
2200 UTC SUN AUG 03 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.0W AT 03/2200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.0W AT 03/2200Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 88.0W
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 88.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
2200 UTC SUN AUG 03 2008
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.0W AT 03/2200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 88.0W AT 03/2200Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 88.0W
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 88.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE
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Aric Dunn
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
012
WTNT35 KNHC 032150
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE FIFTH OF THE
SEASON...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM CDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 420 MILES...675 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...88.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE
WTNT35 KNHC 032150
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE FIFTH OF THE
SEASON...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM CDT...2200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 95
MILES...155 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 420 MILES...675 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND APPROACH THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 500 PM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...88.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE
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SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8344
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
Re: Tropical Storm Edouard advisories
412
WTNT45 KNHC 032157
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
600 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008
WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO...IT FOUND MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...A
DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. EDOUARD IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2200Z 28.1N 88.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE
WTNT45 KNHC 032157
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
600 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008
WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO...IT FOUND MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...A
DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. EDOUARD IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2200Z 28.1N 88.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm Edouard advisories
WTNT45 KNHC 032157
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
600 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008
WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO...IT FOUND MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...A
DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. EDOUARD IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2200Z 28.1N 88.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
600 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008
WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO...IT FOUND MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...A
DROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE
SEASON.
THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. EDOUARD IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
INTENSITY AT LANDFALL...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE GFDL
AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/2200Z 28.1N 88.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 28.2N 89.4W 45 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 28.9N 93.8W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 29.5N 96.2W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE
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dixiebreeze
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 5140
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 5:07 pm
- Location: crystal river, fla.
Re: Tropical Storm Edouard advisories
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-FORMED TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
525 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE
AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON EDOUARD ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
EDOUARD ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT5.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-FORMED TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
525 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE
AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON EDOUARD ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT35
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON
EDOUARD ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT5.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
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MiamiensisWx
000
WTNT35 KNHC 032348
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
...EDOUARD MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 415 MILES...670 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...88.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT35 KNHC 032348
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
...EDOUARD MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS
MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST
FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL
CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST OR ABOUT 90
MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
ABOUT 415 MILES...670 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 4 MPH...6 KM/HR...AND
A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE PARALLEL TO THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...AND BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST ON TUESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ALONG THE THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...88.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm Edouard advisories
WTNT35 KNHC 040230
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED AS EDOUARD CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS IS REPLACED BY A HURRICANE
WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ABOUT 390 MILES...630 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED
TO BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST OR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...AND EDOUARD
COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE COASTLINE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...88.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT45 KNHC 040230
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT 45 KT BASED ON PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 54 KT AND A VISUAL ESTIMATE OF 55 KT PRIOR TO 00Z FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. SINCE THEN...CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...AND THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION
TREND HAS NO DOUBT STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS
STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND EDOUARD COULD FIND ITSELF IN A DIFLUENT UPPER
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE GFDL...SHIPS...LGEM...AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL
MAKE EDOUARD A HURRICANE. THE LATTER THREE MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND...A TREND
WHICH IS NO LONGER OCCURRING. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE...BRINGING EDOUARD TO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH LANDFALL AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE EDOUARD IS MOVING AT A VERY OBLIQUE ANGLE TO THE
COASTLINE...SMALL ERRORS IN THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD RESULT IN
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LANDFALL LOCATION. CONSEQUENTLY...AND AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...THE CHANCES
OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ROUGHLY EQUAL FROM
MORGAN CITY ALL THE WAY TO GALVESTON BAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF A RELATIVELY NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 28.1N 88.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 28.2N 89.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 28.6N 91.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 29.3N 94.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 30.0N 96.5W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/0000Z 31.0N 101.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED AS EDOUARD CONTINUES SLOWLY WESTWARD...
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
WESTWARD TO CAMERON LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO CAMERON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS IS REPLACED BY A HURRICANE
WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.5 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...125 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AND ABOUT 390 MILES...630 KM...EAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY...WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED
TO BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST OR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...AND EDOUARD
COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE COASTLINE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...88.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT45 KNHC 040230
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008
THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT 45 KT BASED ON PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 54 KT AND A VISUAL ESTIMATE OF 55 KT PRIOR TO 00Z FROM THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. SINCE THEN...CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTER HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...AND THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION
TREND HAS NO DOUBT STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS
STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO...AND EDOUARD COULD FIND ITSELF IN A DIFLUENT UPPER
ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. THE GFDL...SHIPS...LGEM...AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL
MAKE EDOUARD A HURRICANE. THE LATTER THREE MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND...A TREND
WHICH IS NO LONGER OCCURRING. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
LIES SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE...BRINGING EDOUARD TO JUST BELOW
HURRICANE STRENGTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE
WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH LANDFALL AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...BECAUSE EDOUARD IS MOVING AT A VERY OBLIQUE ANGLE TO THE
COASTLINE...SMALL ERRORS IN THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD RESULT IN
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LANDFALL LOCATION. CONSEQUENTLY...AND AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...THE CHANCES
OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ROUGHLY EQUAL FROM
MORGAN CITY ALL THE WAY TO GALVESTON BAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF A RELATIVELY NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0300Z 28.1N 88.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 04/1200Z 28.2N 89.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/0000Z 28.6N 91.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 05/1200Z 29.3N 94.1W 60 KT
48HR VT 06/0000Z 30.0N 96.5W 40 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/0000Z 31.0N 101.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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southerngale
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- Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)
Re: Tropical Storm Edouard advisories
000
WTNT35 KNHC 040837
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
400 AM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
...EDOUARD CONTINUES WESTWARD WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...
AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
WESTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO SAN LUIS
PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 295
MILES...475 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE
CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
OR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTLINE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL COUNTIES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...90.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT45 KNHC 040840
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND...A FEW HOURS AGO...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EDOUARD BECAME QUITE
DISORGANIZED AS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BECAME DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS PENETRATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE
0600 UTC...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 1006 MB. IN FACT...BASED
ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THAT TIME...IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO
WHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. RECENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
HOWEVER AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAD FALLEN BACK TO 1002 MB. I ASSUME THAT THE AIRCRAFT
WILL SOON FIND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS.
GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
AREA INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ...SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN PREDICTING THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONES...EVEN IN THE 24 HOUR TIME FRAME...IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THAT EDOUARD COULD REACH THE COAST AS A HURRICANE.
THEREFORE THE HURRICANE WATCH IS MAINTAINED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE WEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW 270/8. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL MOVE ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA
OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE FASTER.
AS ALWAYS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIME OF
LANDFALL SHOWN BY THIS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 28.1N 90.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 29.0N 93.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 29.7N 95.9W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/0600Z 30.4N 98.1W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/0600Z 31.5N 102.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT85 KNHC 040846
TCVAT5
EDOUARD WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
400 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
.TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
LAZ051-TXZ200-213-214-215-235-236-237-238-041500-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
400 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W
CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W
$$
LAZ052-041500-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
400 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W
INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W
$$
LAZ054-059-065-066-067-068-069-041500-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
400 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W
MOUTH-MISSISSIPPI-RIVER-LA 29.12N 89.10W
$$
LAZ051-TXZ200-213-214-215-238-041500-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.080804T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
400 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
SAN-LUIS-PASS-TX 29.07N 95.13W
CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W
$$
ATTN...WFO...HGX...LIX...LCH...
WTNT35 KNHC 040837
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
400 AM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
...EDOUARD CONTINUES WESTWARD WHILE BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED...
AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
WESTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO SAN LUIS
PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT 295
MILES...475 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE
CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
OR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTLINE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL COUNTIES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY.
REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...90.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT45 KNHC 040840
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008
NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND...A FEW HOURS AGO...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EDOUARD BECAME QUITE
DISORGANIZED AS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BECAME DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTERS PENETRATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE
0600 UTC...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 1006 MB. IN FACT...BASED
ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THAT TIME...IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO
WHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. RECENT SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
HOWEVER AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAD FALLEN BACK TO 1002 MB. I ASSUME THAT THE AIRCRAFT
WILL SOON FIND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS.
GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE
AREA INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ...SIMILAR
TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN PREDICTING THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONES...EVEN IN THE 24 HOUR TIME FRAME...IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THAT EDOUARD COULD REACH THE COAST AS A HURRICANE.
THEREFORE THE HURRICANE WATCH IS MAINTAINED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST.
THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE WEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW 270/8. NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL MOVE ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA
OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE FASTER.
AS ALWAYS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIME OF
LANDFALL SHOWN BY THIS FORECAST.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/0900Z 28.1N 90.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 04/1800Z 28.4N 91.6W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/0600Z 29.0N 93.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/1800Z 29.7N 95.9W 50 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/0600Z 30.4N 98.1W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/0600Z 31.5N 102.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
000
WTNT85 KNHC 040846
TCVAT5
EDOUARD WATCH/WARNING BREAKPOINTS/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
400 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
.TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD
LAZ051-TXZ200-213-214-215-235-236-237-238-041500-
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
400 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
PORT-OCONNOR-TX 28.39N 96.41W
CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W
$$
LAZ052-041500-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.CON.KNHC.HU.A.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
400 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W
INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W
$$
LAZ054-059-065-066-067-068-069-041500-
/O.CON.KNHC.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
400 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
INTRACOASTAL-CITY-LA 29.62N 92.04W
MOUTH-MISSISSIPPI-RIVER-LA 29.12N 89.10W
$$
LAZ051-TXZ200-213-214-215-238-041500-
/O.NEW.KNHC.TR.W.1005.080804T0900Z-000000T0000Z/
400 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2008
SAN-LUIS-PASS-TX 29.07N 95.13W
CAMERON-LA 29.78N 93.30W
$$
ATTN...WFO...HGX...LIX...LCH...
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southerngale
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- Admin
- Posts: 139083
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Tropical Storm Edouard advisories
WTNT35 KNHC 041138
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 AM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
...EDOUARD CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT
285 MILES...460 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE
CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
OR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTLINE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL COUNTIES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 AM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
...EDOUARD CONTINUES WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES...135 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT
285 MILES...460 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE
CENTER OF EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
OR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTLINE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COASTAL COUNTIES INTO
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY.
REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...28.1 N...90.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 AM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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WTNT45 KNHC 041441
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 11Z...AND THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED
45 KT WINDS AT 850 MB OUTBOUND FROM THAT FIX. IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST
12 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40
KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS...HOWEVER...
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION...ALBEIT POORLY ORGANIZED...IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFDL MODEL IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
AT LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE.
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PAST FORECAST ERROR
CHARACTERISTICS...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EDOUARD
WILL BE A HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7...AND THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
AREA OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 28.2N 90.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 28.4N 92.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 29.1N 94.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 29.7N 96.5W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT45 KNHC 041441
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008
THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 11Z...AND THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED
45 KT WINDS AT 850 MB OUTBOUND FROM THAT FIX. IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST
12 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40
KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS...HOWEVER...
INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS BECOME A
LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
CONVECTION...ALBEIT POORLY ORGANIZED...IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE
NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFDL MODEL IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH
AT LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE.
BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PAST FORECAST ERROR
CHARACTERISTICS...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EDOUARD
WILL BE A HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7...AND THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN
AREA OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/1500Z 28.2N 90.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 28.4N 92.2W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 29.1N 94.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 29.7N 96.5W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 98.5W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm Edouard advisories
WTNT35 KNHC 041752
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
100 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EDOUARD AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO PORT OCONNOR.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 145
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT
240 MILES...390 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
EDOUARD WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST OR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTLINE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL COUNTIES AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...28.3 N...91.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
100 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF EDOUARD AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO PORT OCONNOR.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST OR ABOUT 145
MILES...230 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT
240 MILES...390 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF
EDOUARD WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST OR THE COAST OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND EDOUARD COULD BE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
REACHING THE COASTLINE.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL COUNTIES AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...28.3 N...91.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm Edouard advisories
WTNT35 KNHC 042052
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
400 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
...EDOUARD GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS REACH THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT
215 MILES...350 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECT TO OCCUR TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF
EDOUARD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH EDOUARD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET TODAY...IT IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COASTLINE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER...AND WERE RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR COCODRIE
LOUISIANA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...28.3 N...91.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT45 KNHC 042053
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008
DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND
FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW
IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS...BUT THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVN'T
CHANGED MUCH. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT. STRUCTURALLY...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION...WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER
BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO
THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE
OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND SUPERENSEMBLE
STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN
CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
THRESHOLD. IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A
LOW-END HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. EDOUARD'S HEADING IS WOBBLING BETWEEN
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS EDOUARD MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW IS SHOWING A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
NEAR AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN BEFORE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 28.3N 91.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 28.6N 92.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 29.4N 95.0W 60 KT...JUST INLAND
36HR VT 06/0600Z 30.5N 97.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/1800Z 31.5N 99.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
400 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
...EDOUARD GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS REACH THE COAST OF LOUISIANA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.4 WEST OR ABOUT 135
MILES...220 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT
215 MILES...350 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECT TO OCCUR TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF
EDOUARD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH EDOUARD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET TODAY...IT IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COASTLINE DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER...AND WERE RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR COCODRIE
LOUISIANA.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...28.3 N...91.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
WTNT45 KNHC 042053
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008
DATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND
FIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW
IN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS...BUT THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVN'T
CHANGED MUCH. THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT. STRUCTURALLY...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION...WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER
BANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO
THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE
OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD
IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT
PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND SUPERENSEMBLE
STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN
CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE
THRESHOLD. IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE
PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A
LOW-END HURRICANE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. EDOUARD'S HEADING IS WOBBLING BETWEEN
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS EDOUARD MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW IS SHOWING A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE...AND THIS
IS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
NEAR AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE NORTH AND HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN BEFORE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 04/2100Z 28.3N 91.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 28.6N 92.9W 50 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 29.4N 95.0W 60 KT...JUST INLAND
36HR VT 06/0600Z 30.5N 97.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/1800Z 31.5N 99.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139083
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Storm Edouard advisories
WTNT35 KNHC 042351
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
...EDOUARD MOVING ERRATICALLY WESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
BRUSHING THE LOUISIANA COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT
205 MILES...330 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECT TO OCCUR TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF
EDOUARD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EDOUARD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE COASTLINE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...28.4 N...91.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
700 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2008
...EDOUARD MOVING ERRATICALLY WESTWARD...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
BRUSHING THE LOUISIANA COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WESTWARD TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA AND ABOUT
205 MILES...330 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.
EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECT TO OCCUR TONIGHT...AND THE CENTER OF
EDOUARD SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY MIDDAY
TOMORROW. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN SOME ERRATIC
MOTION DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. EDOUARD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE COASTLINE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.
A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.
EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IN SOME LOUISIANA COASTAL PARISHES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...28.4 N...91.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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WTNT25 KNHC 050247
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2008
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE WESTWARD
TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 92.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 92.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 91.6W
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.1N 93.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.0N 95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.1N 97.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 32.0N 99.9W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 92.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT25 KNHC 050247
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052008
0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2008
AT 10 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM GRAND ISLE WESTWARD
TO PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA TO PORT O'CONNOR.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 92.2W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 92.2W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 91.6W
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.1N 93.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 30.0N 95.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.1N 97.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 32.0N 99.9W...INLAND REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 92.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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