CPAC: Tropical Depression Kika

[HURAKAN]

Kikita! What a small system this is.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t7/loop-vis.html

Easterly shear continues to impact the storm. The heaviest convection is displaced to the west making the LLC partly exposed.

[HURAKAN]

CP, 01, 2008080818, , BEST, 0, 96N, 1534W, 30, 1010, TD,

[HURAKAN]

025
WTPA31 PHFO 082047
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 AM HST FRI AUG 08 2008

...KIKA RELOCATED AND DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 1100 AM
HST...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 154.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 840 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 1150
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH AND THIS
MOVEMENT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...9.7 N...154.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[Mecklenburg]

the last time a CPac storm formed was in 2006, which was an El Niño year... also, we might have another CPac storm in the next 48 hours... i hope my feeling is wrong about this season...

[Chacor]

Major change in the forecast. Still a TD but expected to reach the dateline as a 45-kt strengthening TS.

356
WTPA21 PHFO 090251
TCMCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
0300 UTC SAT AUG 09 2008


TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 155.2W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 10SE 10SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 155.2W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 154.6W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 10.2N 156.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 10.6N 159.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 25NE 5SE 5SW 25NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 10.9N 161.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 11.4N 164.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE 15SE 15SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 12.2N 169.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 12.9N 174.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 13.2N 180.0E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.9N 155.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[HURAKAN]

Nice increase in convection. Circulation and convection now appear to be co-located although most of the convection is in the northern quadrant. Shear may be lessening.

[Cyclenall]

Don't look now, but this thing is going nuts right now! It's a TS right now IMO. The future for Kika is looking brighter .

[Chacor]

CP, 01, 2008080906, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1559W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 10, 10, 30, 1010, 60, 30, 45, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, KIKA, D, 12, NEQ, 45, 10, 10, 45

[Chacor]

WTPA21 PHFO 090828
TCMCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
0900 UTC SAT AUG 09 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 156.5W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 156.5W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 155.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 10.4N 158.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 10.8N 161.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 11.2N 163.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 15SE 15SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 11.6N 166.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 15SE 15SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.4N 170.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 15SE 15SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 13.0N 176.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 13.3N 178.4E
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.1N 156.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[Chacor]

WTPA41 PHFO 090844
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 08 2008

THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION THAT KIKA EXHIBITED DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS HAS CONTINUED THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW
UNDER PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM PHFO WAS 35 KT WHEREAS JTWC AND SAB HAD 30 KT. GIVEN
THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...AND A JUST-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT
PASS THAT CONTAINED /RAIN-FLAGGED/ 40 KT WINDS...KIKA IS DEEMED TO
BE A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/12KT REMAINS UNCHANGED SINCE MORNING...AS
DOES THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. A DEEP ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
WILL KEEP KIKA MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...WITH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE...AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC...AS SHEAR HAS
BEEN LIGHT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES /SST/ SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR
INTENSIFICATION...YET KIKA HAS NOT DONE SO IN THE 24 HOURS LEADING
UP TO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS INDICATE THAT KIKA MAY
BE IN LINE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY SHIPS AND
CONSENSUS MODELS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
UPWARD. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER...AS WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR AND SST ABOVE
OR NEAR 26.5 LIE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND
72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN AREA OF HIGHER
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...YET WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
MARGINALLY...WITH ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 10.1N 156.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 10.4N 158.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 10.8N 161.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 11.2N 163.5W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 11.6N 166.1W 40 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 12.4N 170.9W 40 KT
96HR VT 13/0600Z 13.0N 176.2W 45 KT
120HR VT 14/0600Z 13.3N 178.4E 45 KT

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[HURAKAN]

Low shear now, which is noticeable based on the increased in the organization of Kika. Shear could become a problem in 84 hrs and forward.

Code: Select all

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *        GOES INPUT INCLUDED                *
                    *        KIKA  CP012008  08/09/08  06 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    38    41    44    45    48    50    52    50    51    50    53    55
V (KT) LAND       35    38    41    44    45    48    50    52    50    51    50    53    55
V (KT) LGE mod    35    37    39    41    43    47    50    52    53    53    52   DIS   DIS

SHEAR (KTS)        7     5     4     3     3     4     5    11    13    19    25   N/A   N/A
SHEAR DIR         92    29    45    60    61    38   205   245   258   258   262   N/A   N/A
SST (C)         27.4  27.2  27.0  26.8  26.5  26.4  26.5  26.7  26.9  27.0  27.1   N/A   N/A
POT. INT. (KT)   139   137   134   133   130   129   130   132   134   135   136   N/A   N/A
200 MB T (C)   -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5   N/A   N/A
TH_E DEV (C)       6     7     7     7     7     7     8     8     9     9     9   N/A   N/A
700-500 MB RH     55    49    45    44    46    39    41    44    44    45    43   N/A   N/A
GFS VTEX (KT)      8     9     8     8     7     7     6     6     4     4     4  LOST  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    39    28    17    12    10     0   -16   -24   -27   -25   -32   N/A   N/A
200 MB DIV        19    22     9    -7   -14   -36   -34   -25   -12   -19    15   N/A   N/A
LAND (KM)        989   979   985  1013  1057  1177  1295  1414  1581  1774  1990   N/A   N/A
LAT (DEG N)     10.0  10.2  10.4  10.6  10.7  11.1  11.7  12.1  12.3  12.7  13.1   N/A   N/A
LONG(DEG W)    155.9 157.1 158.2 159.4 160.6 163.1 165.6 168.2 170.7 173.4 176.1   N/A   N/A
STM SPEED (KT)    12    11    11    12    12    13    12    13    13    13    13   N/A   N/A

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11      CX,CY: -10/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  561  (MEAN=582)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  25.3 (MEAN=18.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  81.0 (MEAN=65.7)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          1.   1.   2.   3.   5.   7.  10.  12.  14.  15.  15.  16.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   4.   7.   9.  10.  10.   9.   8.   8.   8.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   3.   5.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -3.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -4.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       3.   5.   8.   9.  13.  15.  17.  16.  16.  16.  18.  20.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   1.   1.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      3.   6.   9.  10.  13.  15.  17.  15.  16.  15.  18.  20.

** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP012008       KIKA 08/09/08  06 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   5.0 Range:-20.0 to  45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   4.5 Range: 18.5 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.0
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :   5.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  99.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  69.0 Range: 63.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  15.9 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.9
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    33% is   2.6 times the sample mean(12.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    23% is   2.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    19% is   3.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012008       KIKA 08/09/08  06 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             


[HURAKAN]

055
WHXX01 KMIA 091234
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1234 UTC SAT AUG 9 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKA (CP012008) 20080809 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080809 1200 080810 0000 080810 1200 080811 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.1N 157.2W 10.7N 159.5W 11.3N 162.0W 11.9N 164.6W
BAMD 10.1N 157.2W 10.5N 159.3W 10.8N 161.4W 11.2N 163.4W
BAMM 10.1N 157.2W 10.6N 159.3W 11.1N 161.4W 11.5N 163.6W
LBAR 10.1N 157.2W 10.3N 159.6W 10.6N 161.8W 10.7N 163.9W
SHIP 35KTS 42KTS 47KTS 50KTS
DSHP 35KTS 42KTS 47KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080811 1200 080812 1200 080813 1200 080814 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.6N 167.2W 13.0N 172.1W 13.3N 177.3W 13.3N 177.5E
BAMD 11.6N 165.6W 12.4N 169.4W 13.2N 172.3W 14.3N 174.0W
BAMM 12.0N 165.9W 12.6N 170.4W 13.4N 174.6W 14.5N 177.8W
LBAR 10.4N 165.8W .0N .0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 52KTS 51KTS 51KTS 56KTS
DSHP 52KTS 51KTS 51KTS 56KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.1N LONCUR = 157.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 9.8N LONM12 = 154.6W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 9.9N LONM24 = 152.4W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 90NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 10NM RD34SW = 10NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[arkestra]

I always have a lot of admiration for central pacific storms. There are very lovely. I think this is my favourite basin.

[Chacor]

WTPA41 PHFO 091442
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2008

CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF
KIKA...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH OVERNIGHT.
THE 1200 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE AS
WELL...WITH FIXES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KT FROM PHFO/SAB/JTWC. HAVE
KEPT INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/13 HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE PAST 18
HOURS...AFTER LAST NIGHT/S DRAMATIC JOG TO THE SOUTH. KIKA IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING OVER THE COURSE OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT WILL REMAIN IN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT TRACKS WESTWARD IN TANDEM
WITH THE SYSTEM. HAVE NUDGED THE FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD WITH THIS
PACKAGE TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS...AND TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT THAT KIKA HAS GAINED LITTLE LATITUDE OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 KT CURRENTLY EXISTS OVER KIKA...
ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...AND IS LIMITING OUTFLOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX IN THE 24-72
HOUR TIME FRAME...WHILE THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE 26.5 DEGREE C
ISOTHERM...ALLOWING FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. IN THE LATER
PERIODS...KIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN AREA OF HIGHER OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT...WHILE AT THE SAME ENCOUNTERING INCREASING SOUTHWEST
SHEAR AT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND A SLIGHT
WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 10.2N 157.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 10.3N 159.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 10.6N 162.4W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 10.9N 165.0W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 11.6N 168.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 12.3N 173.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 12.8N 179.2W 40 KT
120HR VT 14/1200Z 13.0N 175.1E 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD

[HURAKAN]

161
WTPA31 PHFO 092050
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2008

...KIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

AT 1100 AM HST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 158.9 WEST OR ABOUT
765 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU HAWAII AND ABOUT 840 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.

KIKA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM HST POSITION...10.3 N...158.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

202
WTPA41 PHFO 092050
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
1100 AM HST SAT AUG 09 2008

CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF
KIKA...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE 1800 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE AS WELL...WITH FIXES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KT FROM
PHFO AND SAB AND 25 KT FROM JTWC. HAVE KEPT INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35
KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK PRETTY MUCH GOES DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THEM ALL. THIS IS DUE TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTH OF KIKA.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...THE SHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER KIKA TO
LESS THAN 3 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS BEFORE ENTERING AN
AREA OF WARMER WATER AND HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. DUE TO THE
DECREASE IN SHEAR...SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72 HOURS ALL BUT THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH SHIPS BRINGING KIKA UP TO AROUND
55 KT WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM DOWN TO
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF KIKA. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO
FOLLOW THIS SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/2100Z 10.3N 158.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/0600Z 10.5N 160.9W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/1800Z 10.9N 163.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/0600Z 11.4N 166.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 11/1800Z 11.8N 169.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 12/1800Z 12.5N 174.7W 45 KT
96HR VT 13/1800Z 13.0N 179.5E 40 KT
120HR VT 14/1800Z 13.3N 173.9E 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Chacor]

I doubt this is a TS right now. T-numbers are very, very low.

[HURAKAN]

I doubt this is a TS right now. T-numbers are very, very low.

Tropical Depression looks like the right category.

[Chacor]

WTPA41 PHFO 100248
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012008
500 PM HST SAT AUG 09 2008

CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF
KIKA...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE 0000 UTC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
LOWERED SLIGHTLY...WITH FIXES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KT FROM
PHFO/SAB/JTWC. HAVE KEPT INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE
AS COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN REAPPEARING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH
OF THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT AND HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALL OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS ARE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK PRETTY MUCH GOES DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THEM ALL. THIS IS DUE TO DEEP EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A
DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS POSITIONED FAR TO THE NORTH OF KIKA.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.

ACCORDING TO UW/CIMSS ANALYSES...THE SHEAR OVER KIKA IS AROUND 3 KT
FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST. MODELS INDICATE THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ALSO KIKA WILL BE MOVING OVER
THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS BEFORE ENTERING AN AREA OF WARMER
WATER AND HIGHER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. DUE TO THE LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BUT A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS IS IN LINE WITH
MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72 HOURS ALL BUT THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND WITH SHIPS BRINGING KIKA UP TO AROUND 60 KT
WITHIN 120 HOURS WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM
DOWN TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF KIKA. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SLOW WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 72 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 10.4N 159.8W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 10.7N 161.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 11.1N 164.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 11.5N 167.1W 40 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 11.9N 169.9W 45 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 12.7N 175.6W 45 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 13.1N 178.8E 40 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 13.3N 173.4E 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BURKE