CPAC: Invest 94C

[UKane]

94E.INVEST has formed

[HURAKAN]

249
WHXX01 KMIA 071855
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1855 UTC THU AUG 7 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP942008) 20080807 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080807 1800 080808 0600 080808 1800 080809 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 138.0W 9.3N 139.5W 9.3N 140.7W 9.3N 141.7W
BAMD 9.3N 138.0W 9.3N 140.0W 9.3N 141.8W 9.3N 143.4W
BAMM 9.3N 138.0W 9.4N 139.5W 9.5N 140.8W 9.5N 141.9W
LBAR 9.3N 138.0W 9.5N 140.4W 10.1N 142.7W 10.7N 144.8W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 37KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 31KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080809 1800 080810 1800 080811 1800 080812 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.5N 142.4W 10.8N 143.6W 12.8N 144.9W 15.0N 146.3W
BAMD 9.1N 144.9W 8.7N 147.4W 8.5N 149.9W 9.3N 153.0W
BAMM 9.4N 142.9W 10.0N 144.7W 11.2N 146.3W 12.9N 147.8W
LBAR 11.4N 146.8W 13.5N 150.3W 15.6N 153.7W 17.7N 156.2W
SHIP 44KTS 54KTS 62KTS 63KTS
DSHP 44KTS 54KTS 62KTS 63KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.3N LONCUR = 138.0W DIRCUR = 265DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 9.3N LONM12 = 135.3W DIRM12 = 260DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 10.3N LONM24 = 132.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNN
______________________

If it develops it will be in the CPAC.

[Cyclenall]

This could be the next Cpac storm that the models were picking up. Just amazing if we do see another one form there!

[KWT]

Yep would be utterly amazing I reckon, its looking a little messy right now but they all start somewhere.

[Cyclenall]

This part of the Pacific is going to explode if the GFS model and several others are correct.

[KWT]

Yeah need to see what this is like in 24hrs time, if its still going then things do get interesting.

Got to think the MJO turning favorable is helping to light the switch in the EPAC/CPAC again.

[UKane]

I look forward to it....

[RL3AO]

The Climate Prediction Center’s 2008 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season Outlook calls for a 70% chance of a below-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of an above-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above, near-, and below-normal seasons.
-------


I think the EPac is giving the CPC the middle finger.

[Tampa_God]

This part of the Pacific is going to explode if the GFS model and several others are correct.

If you do, can you post this GFS please? I haven't seen it yet.

[Cyclenall]

If you do, can you post this GFS please? I haven't seen it yet.

The 18Z run continues the train: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Tampa_God]

If you do, can you post this GFS please? I haven't seen it yet.

The 18Z run continues the train: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Thanks!

Wow, is this one the one that gets pretty close to the islands?

[Cyclenall]

Yes, this is the one that gets closer to Hawaii then the others. I think this is the 3rd run that has shown this more northerly motion for 94E (soon to be 93C).

[A1A]

When do these storms turn back to the Baja? I am in the extreme extreme extreme drought zone here in Texas, and these tend to bring us more rain than the GOM storms.

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 072351
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU AUG 7 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERNAN...LOCATED ABOUT 715 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO.

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 1400 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT THU AUG 7 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERNAN...LOCATED ABOUT 755 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO.

A DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS POORLY ORGANIZED. SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[KWT]

Convection still flaring at the moment with this invest, still needs watching as there is decent convection though development probably will indeed be slow.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 8 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERNAN...LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL
WAVE HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC JUST WEST OF
COSTA RICA. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING
ONLY LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Chacor]

ABPZ20 KNHC 081800
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 8 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE HERNAN...LOCATED ABOUT 865 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW...AND CONDITIONS THEREAFTER APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH ON A TRACK RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING
ONLY LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[RL3AO]

Is now 94C.

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 101345
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN AUG 10 2008

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
TROPICAL STORM KIKA....LOCATED ABOUT 815 SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
HONOLULU. ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM KIKA ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTPA21 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMCP1.

2. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SPOTTY AND DISORGANIZED IN THE AREA
BETWEEN 1000 AND 1200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HILO. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

$$

H. LAU