EPAC: Disturbance Iselle

[Honeyko]

This thing was an utter monster crossing South America a couple days ago. Aside from lack of an eye, it looked like a Cat-5 was mauling the tepuis of Venezuela. Perfect outflow all quads, and a poleward exhaust channel that blew cirrus all the way to Haiti.

[Cyclenall]

Like another poster said, the GFDL model takes this to a category 4 hurricane near the Mexico coast. The HWRF model only makes it a CAT1 hurricane with a wobbling track near Mexico. This is a great candidate for the first major hurricane in the Epac 2008 season.

[KWT]

Got pretty good conditions with explosive SST's. Really its more a matter of how quickly it can get organised right now because once it does get going it could strengthen at a pretty rapid rate to be honest.

[HURAKAN]

If it becomes an intense hurricane and it moves towards Mexico, then we can expect at least one RECON.

[Ad Novoxium]

Previous Iselles:
1984: Category 4. Veered away from land.
1990: Category 3. Moved almost perfectly northwestward, away from land.
1996*: Not used.
2002: Strong tropical storm (70 mph). Dropped heavy rains over Baja California.

* An unnamed tropical storm was the first storm formation of the year, but was not upgraded until post-season. As a result, the last storm, Hernan, should have been named Iselle. Hernan was a Category 1 which made landfall in Mexico, causing flooding, but no deaths. If this was properly given the name Iselle, it would be the only time that a storm named Iselle made landfall.

Going by past history, we can expect at least a strong tropical storm out of Iselle. Odds going by past history peg Iselle to be a major hurricane.*

* Not an official forecast. Should not be taken as such and is not sponsored by an official forecast center.

[Mecklenburg]

future iselle has a good shot also of becoming a major hurricane... the conditions greatly favor her

[Chacor]

WTPN21 PGTW 090130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN/202221Z JUL 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9N 90.1W TO 11.4N 96.5W WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N
91.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.0N 91.2W,
APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAJUTLA, EL SALVADOR. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO
22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 100130Z.//

[HURAKAN]

Shear may become a problem between 36 to 60 hrs from now.

Code: Select all

                    *   EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST   *
                    *        GOES INPUT INCLUDED                *
                    *      INVEST  EP962008  08/09/08  06 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    29    34    40    45    57    65    70    73    75    74    78    79
V (KT) LAND       25    29    34    40    45    57    65    70    73    75    74    78    79
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    32    37    41    45    48    51    55    59    62

SHEAR (KTS)        4     7    12    10    12    21    17    17    14     9    14    12    16
SHEAR DIR         44    69    76    72    61    66    81    91    75    40    56    70    44
SST (C)         28.7  28.8  28.9  28.9  28.9  28.9  28.7  28.6  28.5  28.4  28.2  27.9  27.4
POT. INT. (KT)   153   153   153   153   153   152   150   149   148   147   145   142   137
200 MB T (C)   -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     9     9     9     8     7     8     8     8     8     8     8
700-500 MB RH     81    79    79    75    74    70    72    74    78    78    83    80    80
GFS VTEX (KT)     10     9     9     9     8    10    10    10    11    11     9    11    12
850 MB ENV VOR    53    63    62    56    44    30    20    21    21     4    11    20    31
200 MB DIV        82    92   114   134   108    77    62    47    66    73    89    83    63
LAND (KM)        478   502   542   584   580   616   632   628   605   577   521   477   442
LAT (DEG N)     10.0  10.2  10.4  10.5  10.5  10.4  10.5  11.0  11.8  12.6  13.6  14.6  15.7
LONG(DEG W)     92.9  94.0  95.0  95.9  96.7  98.2  99.5 100.8 102.1 103.3 104.5 105.6 106.7
STM SPEED (KT)    13    11     9     8     8     7     7     7     7     7     8     8     7

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17      CX,CY: -16/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  437  (MEAN=582)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  23.1 (MEAN=18.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  75.0 (MEAN=65.7)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   4.  10.  16.  22.  27.  30.  32.  33.  33.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   4.   3.   4.   5.   6.   5.
  PERSISTENCE            0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  700-500 MB RH          1.   1.   2.   2.   4.   5.   6.   6.   6.   7.   7.   6.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.   3.   4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      1.   2.   3.   5.   5.   6.   5.   4.   3.   2.   1.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   1.   2.   3.   5.   6.   7.   7.   7.   6.   6.   6.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       3.   8.  13.  17.  28.  37.  43.  47.  49.  48.  52.  52.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   4.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       1.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   2.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      4.   9.  15.  20.  32.  40.  45.  48.  50.  49.  53.  54.

** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP962008     INVEST 08/09/08  06 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-20.0 to  45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   8.9 Range: 18.5 to   1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.7
 D200 (10**7s-1)       : 106.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 128.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  1.0/  1.4
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  81.4 Range: 63.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.5
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  19.6 Range: 35.4 to   2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.7
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    41% is   3.3 times the sample mean(12.5%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    27% is   3.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    22% is   3.8 times the sample mean( 5.8%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962008     INVEST 08/09/08  06 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             


[HURAKAN]

652
ABPZ20 KNHC 091136
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HERNAN...LOCATED ABOUT 970 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT
10 TO 15 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO
15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME
_______

Backing off from the rapid development previously indicated.

[HURAKAN]

A lot was promised but nothing has been delivered.

[HURAKAN]

373
WHXX01 KMIA 091857
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1857 UTC SAT AUG 9 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962008) 20080809 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080809 1800 080810 0600 080810 1800 080811 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.0N 94.5W 12.7N 96.4W 13.3N 98.3W 14.2N 99.8W
BAMD 12.0N 94.5W 12.6N 96.4W 12.9N 98.3W 13.3N 100.3W
BAMM 12.0N 94.5W 12.4N 96.2W 12.7N 97.9W 12.9N 99.6W
LBAR 12.0N 94.5W 13.0N 96.4W 13.8N 98.8W 14.8N 101.3W
SHIP 20KTS 30KTS 40KTS 50KTS
DSHP 20KTS 30KTS 40KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080811 1800 080812 1800 080813 1800 080814 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.8N 101.2W 15.8N 103.7W 16.5N 106.3W 18.1N 109.2W
BAMD 13.8N 102.2W 14.6N 106.0W 15.1N 109.9W 16.5N 114.0W
BAMM 13.3N 101.4W 14.0N 104.7W 14.5N 108.0W 15.8N 111.6W
LBAR 16.0N 103.7W 19.0N 108.0W 22.2N 110.9W 24.7N 112.8W
SHIP 58KTS 67KTS 68KTS 72KTS
DSHP 58KTS 67KTS 68KTS 72KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 94.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 10.4N LONM12 = 92.8W DIRM12 = 292DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 9.8N LONM24 = 89.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SAT AUG 9 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HERNAN...LOCATED ABOUT 1005 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.
INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS MOVING VERY LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM IS
PRODUCING ONLY LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HERNAN...LOCATED ABOUT 1095 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
DISSIPATED AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LESS
LIKELY. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[UKane]

Lol... they have given up on it.... i think that it just had a bad day.... i won't be suprised if it doesn't re-organise and become stronger.

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC
invest_DEACTIVATE_ep962008.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200808101210
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2008, DB, O, 2008080812, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962008
EP, 96, 2008080800, , BEST, 0, 90N, 835W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2008080806, , BEST, 0, 94N, 856W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
EP, 96, 2008080812, , BEST, 0, 97N, 877W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 96, 2008080818, , BEST, 0, 98N, 896W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 96, 2008080900, , BEST, 0, 100N, 913W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 96, 2008080906, , BEST, 0, 104N, 928W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 96, 2008080912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 938W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 96, 2008080918, , BEST, 0, 120N, 945W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
EP, 96, 2008081000, , BEST, 0, 130N, 955W, 20, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t9/loop-vis.html

Becoming better organized.

[HURAKAN]

12/1745 UTC 16.1N 102.7W T1.5/1.5 96E -- East Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

235
ABPZ20 KNHC 122356
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERNAN...LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200
MILES WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA MEXICO IS MINIMAL. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Derek Ortt]

Is this really 96E?

Didn't 96E move up and along the coast of Mexico?

That invest 96E should have sounded the alarm about some of the models over predicting storms. GFDL had it as a cat 4... and it fizzled

[RL3AO]

Is this really 96E?

Didn't 96E move up and along the coast of Mexico?

That invest 96E should have sounded the alarm about some of the models over predicting storms. GFDL had it as a cat 4... and it fizzled

It has to be the 3rd or 4th bust off the Coast of Mexico this year.