EPAC: Disturbance Iselle

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... p&TYPE=geo

[Chacor]

Where are all of these coming from? o_O

[HURAKAN]

[RL3AO]

So NOAA...below average you say?

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 8 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERNAN...LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL
WAVE HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC JUST WEST OF
COSTA RICA. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING
ONLY LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Chacor]

8.6N 87.1W... just off the Pacific coast of Central America.

[HURAKAN]

So NOAA...below average you say?

To NOAA's credit, an active Atlantic usually means an inactive or average EPAC. I can't recall a season in which both basins have been above average in activity. Furthermore, July and August are the most active months in the EPAC, in September the activity starts to come down.

[KWT]

Yet another one
Dread to think if this sort of activity kicks off in the Atlantic...

Anyway this has got a nice little shape to it, convection is fairly deep but nothing too extreme yet. I should think this will be a Td in the end as well.

[RL3AO]

Not sure where to post this.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

Not sure where to post this.

White should be 93C.

[RL3AO]

Not sure where to post this.

White should be 93C.

I was going to screw something up. This is absolutely insane out there.

[KWT]

Thats totally mad, 6 invests/storms in 2 basins is pretty impressive, could imagine how this board would go if a parade of systems like that developed in the Atlantic.

Anyway this system is in an area of very warm SST's and I should think has a pretty decent chance of slowly developing.

[Chacor]

This one's gonna threaten land, it seems.

ABPZ20 KNHC 081800
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 8 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON
RECENTLY-UPGRADED HURRICANE HERNAN...LOCATED ABOUT 865 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR
TOMORROW...AND CONDITIONS THEREAFTER APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH ON A TRACK RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF
MEXICO...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ANOTHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED
AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING
ONLY LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY...SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB

[HURAKAN]

It may develop soon but not for the 2 PM advisory. It doesn't look very organized at the moment.

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclenall]

This is the one that the models were bullish on. This could become a strong one. The level of activitiy is obscene.



I'll post mine too.

[Iune]

Models say 96E could become 125mph Hurricane Iselle!

[cycloneye]

523
WHXX01 KMIA 081903
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1903 UTC FRI AUG 8 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP962008) 20080808 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080808 1800 080809 0600 080809 1800 080810 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.8N 89.7W 10.2N 92.0W 10.6N 94.2W 11.2N 96.0W
BAMD 9.8N 89.7W 10.3N 92.0W 10.8N 94.3W 11.2N 96.5W
BAMM 9.8N 89.7W 10.2N 91.9W 10.6N 94.2W 10.9N 96.3W
LBAR 9.8N 89.7W 10.6N 92.8W 11.5N 95.9W 12.3N 99.0W
SHIP 25KTS 39KTS 56KTS 69KTS
DSHP 25KTS 39KTS 56KTS 69KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080810 1800 080811 1800 080812 1800 080813 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.8N 97.8W 13.3N 100.6W 15.1N 103.2W 17.1N 105.7W
BAMD 11.2N 98.7W 11.4N 102.6W 12.1N 105.6W 13.4N 107.8W
BAMM 11.0N 98.1W 11.6N 101.0W 13.1N 103.8W 14.9N 106.6W
LBAR 13.2N 101.8W 15.7N 106.8W 18.7N 110.4W 20.5N 113.4W
SHIP 82KTS 95KTS 97KTS 96KTS
DSHP 82KTS 95KTS 97KTS 96KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.8N LONCUR = 89.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 20KT
LATM12 = 9.4N LONM12 = 85.6W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 8.7N LONM24 = 79.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[HURAKAN]

08/1745 UTC 10.4N 89.8W T1.0/1.0 96E -- East Pacific Ocean