Ex Invest 93L Model Runs

[Gustywind]

UK Met tropical guidance doesn't see 92L at all.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :

10.6N  27.7W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 11.08.2008  10.6N  27.7W   MODERATE

 00UTC 12.08.2008  11.7N  28.3W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 12.08.2008  13.3N  29.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.08.2008  14.8N  31.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.08.2008  15.0N  34.8W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.08.2008  15.0N  37.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 14.08.2008  15.6N  40.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.08.2008  15.2N  43.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 15.08.2008  15.5N  45.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 16.08.2008  16.2N  48.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 16.08.2008  17.0N  50.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 17.08.2008        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

 I tkink that you want to say 93L not 92L, a mistake surely lol :wink:
92L is the invest near 50W not this one further east


[Derek Ortt]

Canadian does NOT develop 93L

It develops the one behind 93L (though I do not see anything behind 93L)

GFS doesn't really develop this either

I'd say chances have decreased of anything forming quite a bit during the last 24 hours

[HURAKAN]

575
WHXX04 KWBC 111730
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.1 28.6 275./14.0
6 11.1 28.9 286./ 2.6
12 11.3 29.9 278./ 9.6
18 11.3 30.6 272./ 6.8
24 11.6 31.4 286./ 8.8
30 11.8 32.2 288./ 8.3
36 12.3 32.9 303./ 8.1
42 13.0 34.2 300./13.9
48 13.4 35.4 290./12.6
54 14.0 36.6 296./13.9
60 14.6 38.1 290./15.1
66 15.0 39.6 285./15.3
72 15.4 41.0 289./14.2
78 15.8 42.6 284./15.9
84 16.2 44.0 287./13.8
90 16.8 45.1 295./12.0
96 17.7 45.9 318./11.9
102 18.9 46.8 323./14.5
108 20.3 47.3 341./14.8
114 22.1 48.3 331./20.5
120 23.9 49.6 325./21.2
126 25.5 51.2 315./22.1

[zaqxsw75050]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED HWRF HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 93L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 11

FORECAST POSITIONS (FROM STATS.SHORT FILE...)

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE MIN PRESS (hPa) MAX SFC WIND (KTS)

HOUR: 0.0 LONG: -28.70 LAT: 10.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1008.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 26.00
HOUR: 6.0 LONG: -29.20 LAT: 10.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1002.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 29.00
HOUR: 12.0 LONG: -30.10 LAT: 11.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1001.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 18.0 LONG: -31.00 LAT: 11.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 997.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 24.0 LONG: -31.90 LAT: 11.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 996.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 42.00
HOUR: 30.0 LONG: -33.00 LAT: 12.50 MIN PRESS (hPa): 993.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 43.00
HOUR: 36.0 LONG: -34.20 LAT: 12.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 992.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 51.00
HOUR: 42.0 LONG: -35.40 LAT: 13.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 987.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 53.00
HOUR: 48.0 LONG: -36.70 LAT: 13.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 988.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 59.00
HOUR: 54.0 LONG: -38.10 LAT: 13.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 980.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.00
HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -39.40 LAT: 13.80 MIN PRESS (hPa): 983.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -40.70 LAT: 13.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 981.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -42.20 LAT: 14.10 MIN PRESS (hPa): 975.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 72.00
HOUR: 78.0 LONG: -43.60 LAT: 14.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 976.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 66.00
HOUR: 84.0 LONG: -45.00 LAT: 14.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 977.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 65.00
HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -46.30 LAT: 15.00 MIN PRESS (hPa): 973.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 68.00
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -47.60 LAT: 15.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 968.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.00
HOUR: 102.0 LONG: -48.90 LAT: 16.30 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.00
HOUR: 108.0 LONG: -50.00 LAT: 16.90 MIN PRESS (hPa): 962.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 82.00
HOUR: 114.0 LONG: -51.10 LAT: 17.60 MIN PRESS (hPa): 952.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.00
HOUR: 120.0 LONG: -52.00 LAT: 18.40 MIN PRESS (hPa): 947.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.00
HOUR: 126.0 LONG: -53.00 LAT: 19.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 945.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 95.00
FORECAST WAS RUN COUPLED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD...

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[cycloneye]

HWRF makes it a high cat 2,also as GFDL a open water system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[Ed Mahmoud]

UK Met tropical guidance doesn't see 92L at all.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :

10.6N  27.7W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 11.08.2008  10.6N  27.7W   MODERATE

 00UTC 12.08.2008  11.7N  28.3W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 12.08.2008  13.3N  29.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.08.2008  14.8N  31.9W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 13.08.2008  15.0N  34.8W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 14.08.2008  15.0N  37.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 14.08.2008  15.6N  40.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.08.2008  15.2N  43.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 15.08.2008  15.5N  45.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 16.08.2008  16.2N  48.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 16.08.2008  17.0N  50.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 17.08.2008        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

 I tkink that you want to say 93L not 92L, a mistake surely lol :wink:
92L is the invest near 50W not this one further east


Um, exactly. UK Met tropical product had a couple of Pac systems, and 93L, and nothing at all for 92L.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Oh, wait, I may have been on wrong page.

[Weatherfreak14]

Canadian does NOT develop 93L

It develops the one behind 93L (though I do not see anything behind 93L)

GFS doesn't really develop this either

I'd say chances have decreased of anything forming quite a bit during the last 24 hours

I agree it looks that the shear has increased over the last 24hrs... but... it looks it might lessen in the next 24hrs, so we will have to watch this closely as it goes into a favorible enviroment.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian does NOT develop 93L

It develops the one behind 93L (though I do not see anything behind 93L)

GFS doesn't really develop this either

I'd say chances have decreased of anything forming quite a bit during the last 24 hours

Following vorticity fields, looks like vorticity from the East merges with 93L, and that is what develops, so this is, sort of, 93L the Canadian develops.

If I try very hard, I can imagine a little curvature near 24ºW, where Canadian has the vorticity that captures 93L and develops.

[KWT]

The GFDL and HWRF are very keen to lift this into the open Atlantic however its well documented that these two models tend to have a right bias when it comes to developing systems.

[Derek Ortt]

the GFDL solution seems strange with a quick NNW turn

[Weatherfreak14]

the GFDL solution seems strange with a quick NNW turn

I think its showing to much weekness in the High pressure.... I think that after a turn to a NW it would move more W after that, the way other models show the Steering Patterns.

[cycloneye]

It turns NW because it makes it a strong hurricane.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 111851
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1851 UTC MON AUG 11 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932008) 20080811 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080811 1800 080812 0600 080812 1800 080813 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.0N 29.2W 11.3N 30.7W 11.9N 32.5W 12.6N 34.6W
BAMD 11.0N 29.2W 11.1N 31.6W 11.5N 33.8W 11.8N 36.0W
BAMM 11.0N 29.2W 11.4N 31.4W 11.9N 33.6W 12.5N 35.7W
LBAR 11.0N 29.2W 11.4N 31.6W 12.2N 34.3W 12.9N 37.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 48KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080813 1800 080814 1800 080815 1800 080816 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 37.5W 15.2N 44.5W 15.1N 50.7W 15.5N 53.8W
BAMD 12.5N 38.1W 13.9N 42.9W 16.7N 47.4W 21.7N 50.8W
BAMM 13.4N 37.9W 15.3N 43.0W 17.7N 47.6W 21.5N 50.5W
LBAR 13.5N 40.0W 14.3N 46.2W 14.3N 51.4W 14.3N 53.4W
SHIP 57KTS 68KTS 76KTS 76KTS
DSHP 57KTS 68KTS 76KTS 76KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.0N LONCUR = 29.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 10.7N LONM12 = 27.6W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 24.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

right on the heels of 92L. Should both 92L and 93L develop they may take similar paths, in the general direction of the NE Leewards.

For all of those Herbert box watchers, both these invests have a decent chance of making it to the Herbert box based on current model guidance (which is likely to change of course).

It's been since 2004 that a decent looking system has made it into the Herbert box....

I'm really hoping these invests do not develop.

[Derek Ortt]

its not turning it NW because it makes it a strong hurricane

HWRF does not have that turn and it is more intense in that model

GFDL has something off with the steering flow

[Ivanhater]

Although the latest GFS does not develop 93L, it does build a nice ridge over it so I'm not seeing what the GFDL is seeing..

[KWT]

The GFDL seems to have underdone the Subtropical high from what I've seen of it which is allows it to go NW instead I reckon.

[Ed Mahmoud]

its not turning it NW because it makes it a strong hurricane

HWRF does not have that turn and it is more intense in that model

GFDL has something off with the steering flow

Rumor has it there is a GFDL model initialized and with BC set by NoGaps? Is that true, and can you tell us what the 'GFDN' is predicting?

[cycloneye]

12z EURO has 93L as a hurricane just NE of the Leewards:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/