ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[Nederlander]

I am here in the Beaumont Port Arthur area and havent evacuated, yet due to the easterly track of Gustav... I know a mandatory is in place, but does anyone give this a chance of going more toward the TX LA border?

There is a slim risk. Gustav will slowing it's forward motion near landfall Monday. A rather strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build north of the storm forcing Gustav to turn more to the west with it's remnants moving into East Texas around Toledo Bend Tuesday evening.

If the ridge is stronger than expected or Gustav moves slower than forecast, a turn prior to landfall is still possible. However, the most likely scenerio is for the turn to the west-northwest to develop after landfall.

Thanks Greg for the info... we appreciate everything you do for us in SE Texas

[Dean4Storms]

We just got a torrential downpour here in Destin, FL My Davis Vantage Pro recorded .24" in 5 minutes. I couldn't see across the street! Winds gusted to 26mph.

Ooopps, wrong thread.

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm getting bad vibes again nederlander...

[GG]

I'm getting bad vibes again nederlander...

......me too......

[HouTXmetro]

I'm getting bad vibes again nederlander...

Oh Simma Down Nah! What is your brother saying now? Isn't he a pro met?

[KLP124]

Still here in SE Tx too (in Jefferson, near Chambers). We're just going to watch and make a decision late tonight as to whether we stay or go. Thanks for all the information on model runs and pro insight from everyone! Glad to see you posting Greg!

[Wx_Warrior]

You don't want to know what he is saying....He is a EURO guy.

[Weatherfreak000]

Watch the satellite, not the models. The storm is less than 24 hours before landfall...I really don't think you need to look at models anymore as far as direction.


Perhaps intensity forecasting is different however...if the decreasing shear that a few models are predicting comes true it would let this storm re-organize.

[setxweathergal]

Still here in SE Tx too (in Jefferson, near Chambers). We're just going to watch and make a decision late tonight as to whether we stay or go. Thanks for all the information on model runs and pro insight from everyone! Glad to see you posting Greg!

Me too!!!

[ak8s]

We are still here in Beaumont as well.

What concerns me is that my daugther is at A&M Galveston and they haven't evacuated the campus. Seems like with all the evacs happening, they would have gotten them off Pelican Island.

[Wx_Warrior]

Not just saying this but Greg Bostwick is the best there is. No ifs and or buts. Even if he is an Aggie.

[vaffie]

NOGAPS and GFS Ensemble Mean (AEMN) shifted west. NOGAPS by about 50 miles, AEMN by more--from the Louisiana side to the Texas side.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_07

[rtd2]

NOGAPS and GFS Ensemble Mean (AEMN) shifted west. NOGAPS by about 50 miles, AEMN by more--from the Louisiana side to the Texas side.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_07

Wonder if the runs are no factoring in land interaction?

[BigB0882]

Wow, I feel like there is a celebrity here with Greg Bostwick posting! LOL! I grew up in Beaumont watching his forecasts.

[HouTXmetro]

NOGAPS and GFS Ensemble Mean (AEMN) shifted west. NOGAPS by about 50 miles, AEMN by more--from the Louisiana side to the Texas side.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_07

Perhaps they are picking up on the Ridge being stronger. I'm glad Extreme SETX took the precaution Evacuate.

[ROCK]

NOGAPS and GFS Ensemble Mean (AEMN) shifted west. NOGAPS by about 50 miles, AEMN by more--from the Louisiana side to the Texas side.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_07

Perhaps they are picking up on the Ridge being stronger. I'm glad Extreme SETX took the precaution Evacuate.

thats whats its doing feeling the ridge in these runs.....moving 17mph....to deviate now from the current track its need to slow down some.....its like a runaway train now...

[Tom8]

[HouTXmetro]

NOGAPS and GFS Ensemble Mean (AEMN) shifted west. NOGAPS by about 50 miles, AEMN by more--from the Louisiana side to the Texas side.

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_07

Perhaps they are picking up on the Ridge being stronger. I'm glad Extreme SETX took the precaution Evacuate.

thats whats its doing feeling the ridge in these runs.....moving 17mph....to deviate now from the current track its need to slow down some.....its like a runaway train now...

True, at this rate this may make landfall really soon.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I jsut wanna say, hearing rumors HWRF will replace GFDL in a year or two. I hope not.

GFDL has been fairly honed (I missed a few runs at the FAU vs Texas game) for days.

[Wx_Warrior]

Not much of a change (track) with 4pm NHC....Waiting to read discussion.