ATL Tropical Depression GUSTAV - Model Runs

[HouTXmetro]

Not much of a change (track) with 4pm NHC....Waiting to read discussion.

Yes, but they extended the Hurricane Warning to High Island, Texas.

[Wx_Warrior]

Heck, I thought it already was....You have to at this point if they are saying a WNW movement once inland...

[HouTXmetro]

Heck, I thought it already was....You have to at this point if they are saying a WNW movement once inland...

Doesn't make since since they do not show a WNW turn until North Louisiana.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not much of a change (track) with 4pm NHC....Waiting to read discussion.

Yes, but they extended the Hurricane Warning to High Island, Texas.

GFDL put a small bit of Orange County in Cat 1 conditions, so it seems a smart precaution on NHC's part.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Shower time, 5 pm Mass at a different parish because we were driving back from Austin, and our parish doesn't have an afternoon Mass.

Prayers for all the people in the path...

[wxman57]

Gustav is zipping right along toward the mid LA coast this evening. Here's the 18Z model plots, minus the trash (BAMs, NAM, NOGAPS). Just the better consensus models and GFDL/HWRF here. They've been doing a great job, not swinging wildly between Florida and Texas (NOGAPS/NAM).

Gustav seems set on a landfall either in western Terrebonne Parish south of Houma or maybe a little west out in the bay. I can't understand why NHC went with a hurricane warning to High Island either. Hurricane force winds only extend out 35-45 miles west of the center, and once Gustav is inland for 6 hours or so it won't have any hurricane force winds west of the center. I'm expecting Port Arthur to be on the outskirts of the TS wind field.

[Blown Away]

Gustav is zipping right along toward the mid LA coast this evening. Here's the 18Z model plots, minus the trash (BAMs, NAM, NOGAPS). Just the better consensus models and GFDL/HWRF here. They've been doing a great job, not swinging wildly between Florida and Texas (NOGAPS/NAM).

Gustav seems set on a landfall either in western Terrebonne Parish south of Houma or maybe a little west out in the bay. I can't understand why NHC went with a hurricane warning to High Island either. Hurricane force winds only extend out 35-45 miles west of the center, and once Gustav is inland for 6 hours or so it won't have any hurricane force winds west of the center. I'm expecting Port Arthur to be on the outskirts of the TS wind field.

If Gus follows those model tracks it seems he will be @50-60 miles from N.O., will they get sustained hurricane force winds?

[HouTXmetro]

Thanks Wxman... I think some of us were getting a little ahead of ousrselves (including me) with the posibility of this turning West sooner.

[wxman57]

If Gus follows those model tracks it seems he will be @50-60 miles from N.O., will they get sustained hurricane force winds?

New Orleans could see 70-80 mph sustained for a period of time with a track 60 miles southwest of the city. Not for hours, just intermittently over a period of hours. Just about what they saw from Katrina.

[Ivanhater]

Why are some still looking at models..most pros I talk to will tell you with landfall a little over 12 hours away its time to look at the synoptics now!

[marcus B]

Don't like that stall in Texas. Hope we don't have another Allison event.

[BigB0882]

I agree with Ivanhater, the models are about useless now. Just keep an eye on the radars and satellite images. Every wobble at this point matters, every stair step, etc.

[wxman57]

No change with 00Z runs. You get a shot of my model maker on this shot. I can turn on/off any model and add any number of layers.

[canetracker]

I agree with Ivanhater, the models are about useless now. Just keep an eye on the radars and satellite images. Every wobble at this point matters, every stair step, etc.

I second that. Synoptics have definitely been what I am paying attention too.

[mattpetre]

I do believe the models (if there is any drastic change) could point us to something we may be missing in synoptics though. The turn after Haitian landfall was somewhat predicted by UKMET and the other models were seeing new things around the time of that turn too.

[mattpetre]

I'm surprised no one talks about models at all at this point. It's still a relevant discussion, we can talk verification, future flooding potential, all sorts of things related to the current and future models still. Where did everyone go?

[Extremeweatherguy]

All the models look to want to stall this thing just SE of Dallas in the long run, which could mean big flooding concerns for northern TX, OK, LA and AK...especially as a front comes in from the north and interacts with the system. One local met on Oklahoma City television even mentioned the possibility that parts of SE OK could see upwards of 6 to 20 inches of rain! Along with the rain, the tightened pressure gradient could also lead to gusty winds across these same areas as well.

Here is a look at the 00z NAM...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_048l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_072l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

And here is a look at the 00z GFS...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

Look at all that rain and the tight pressure gradient both of the models show! We are going to be in for a pretty nasty couple of days in the AK/TX/OK/LA region!

[Portastorm]

I'm surprised no one talks about models at all at this point. It's still a relevant discussion, we can talk verification, future flooding potential, all sorts of things related to the current and future models still. Where did everyone go?

Still monitoring but after landfall we will be better served with the GFS and NAM and the Euro. No question the issue of rainfall and possible flooding is very real for us in Texas! But let me say that I have seen so many times where tropical systems once they make landfall don't behave like they are predicted. Sometimes the mid level and low level centers get dislodged and the areas of predicted heavy rainfall don't materialize. Then sometimes you have a system that stays intact and produces rainfall of "biblical" proportions, like TS Charley in Del Rio in 1999. I guess it's going to be one of those watch-and-see moments for us.

[vaffie]

I'm surprised no one talks about models at all at this point. It's still a relevant discussion, we can talk verification, future flooding potential, all sorts of things related to the current and future models still. Where did everyone go?

I guess we're all a bit shell-shocked that it's about to hit, and are mostly praying and watching the radar. I'm waiting for the GFDL and HWRF to come out at 1230-1 am to see where they take the storm after landfall.

[mattpetre]

All the models look to want to stall this thing just SE of Dallas in the long run, which could mean big flooding concerns for northern TX, OK, LA and AK...especially as a front comes in from the north and interacts with the system. One local met on Oklahoma City television even mentioned the possibility that parts of SE OK could see upwards of 6 to 20 inches of rain!

Yes, and that sort of weather could be just as devastating although not as immediately exciting as 120mph winds. I hope that people continue to watch the models and see where they are good and where they are bad. I know a lot of folks are simply worried, hunkered down, or may not even have connectivity now; but for those of us on the edges or outside of the cone, I think it's important to keep an eye on the models and keep analyzing their strengths and weaknesses. For the duration of this storm the GFDL really seemed to do the best job, but hte UKMET seemed to catch a thing or two it didn't. Now that the GFDL is a good bit west of the consensus I think it's important to see how that plays out. Maybe it's just wishcasting now? Doesn't want to be the bad guy that everyone follows when trouble is brewing in the gulf? Well, obviously it's not something that involves that kind of personification, so let's see how it plays out. I actually think that the best model was the GFDL as far as long term synoptics and the UKMET as far as short term path. Any other thoughts?