EPAC: Tropical Depression Julio

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE REMNANTS OF ISELLE
WHICH ARE LOCATED ABOUT 1225 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

813
WHXX01 KMIA 221328
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1328 UTC FRI AUG 22 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972008) 20080822 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080822 1200 080823 0000 080823 1200 080824 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.5N 104.0W 17.0N 105.5W 18.3N 107.2W 19.6N 108.8W
BAMD 15.5N 104.0W 16.9N 106.8W 18.2N 109.4W 19.3N 111.8W
BAMM 15.5N 104.0W 17.1N 105.9W 18.4N 107.8W 19.7N 109.7W
LBAR 15.5N 104.0W 16.9N 106.5W 18.7N 109.0W 20.6N 111.6W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080824 1200 080825 1200 080826 1200 080827 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 110.4W 21.3N 113.6W 22.3N 116.2W 23.2N 118.0W
BAMD 20.2N 114.1W 21.7N 117.7W 23.1N 119.5W 24.2N 119.4W
BAMM 20.5N 111.4W 21.4N 114.4W 21.9N 116.6W 22.4N 117.7W
LBAR 22.1N 113.8W 24.8N 116.2W 25.9N 116.1W 26.4N 114.5W
SHIP 50KTS 52KTS 48KTS 46KTS
DSHP 50KTS 52KTS 48KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 104.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 101.8W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 99.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 0NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OFFSHORE.

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES NEAR THE
REMNANTS OF ISELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN
LUCAS MEXICO. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY
WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

068
WHXX01 KMIA 221845
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1845 UTC FRI AUG 22 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972008) 20080822 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080822 1800 080823 0600 080823 1800 080824 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.2N 105.0W 17.9N 106.5W 19.3N 108.0W 20.4N 109.3W
BAMD 16.2N 105.0W 17.7N 107.5W 19.1N 109.9W 20.3N 112.1W
BAMM 16.2N 105.0W 18.0N 106.7W 19.4N 108.4W 20.7N 109.9W
LBAR 16.2N 105.0W 17.8N 107.3W 19.5N 109.8W 21.2N 112.0W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080824 1800 080825 1800 080826 1800 080827 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.1N 110.7W 21.9N 113.0W 22.5N 114.3W 23.4N 115.3W
BAMD 21.4N 114.0W 22.7N 116.6W 23.3N 117.7W 23.9N 118.1W
BAMM 21.5N 111.4W 21.8N 113.6W 21.6N 115.3W 22.0N 116.5W
LBAR 22.9N 113.9W 25.4N 115.8W 26.0N 115.7W 25.5N 114.7W
SHIP 49KTS 51KTS 45KTS 42KTS
DSHP 49KTS 51KTS 45KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.2N LONCUR = 105.0W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 14.8N LONM12 = 102.9W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 99.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[KWT]

Looks a little messy but it has got a chance but who knows really...

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD AN ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS THE SYSTEM PASSES
OFFSHORE.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NEAR THE REMNANTS OF
ISELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 1330 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Impressive:



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES OFFSHORE.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NEAR THE REMNANTS OF
ISELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 1250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS
MEXICO. REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1317 UTC SAT AUG 23 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972008) 20080823 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080823 1200 080824 0000 080824 1200 080825 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.0N 107.3W 19.6N 108.8W 20.8N 109.8W 21.6N 110.8W
BAMD 18.0N 107.3W 19.5N 109.4W 20.7N 111.2W 21.8N 112.7W
BAMM 18.0N 107.3W 19.8N 108.9W 21.0N 110.1W 21.9N 111.1W
LBAR 18.0N 107.3W 19.4N 109.2W 21.0N 111.1W 22.3N 112.9W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS 47KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS 47KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080825 1200 080826 1200 080827 1200 080828 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.1N 111.7W 22.9N 113.5W 23.4N 115.4W 24.5N 117.8W
BAMD 22.3N 114.0W 22.8N 115.8W 22.8N 116.9W 23.2N 118.1W
BAMM 22.2N 112.0W 22.4N 113.7W 22.8N 115.3W 23.8N 116.8W
LBAR 23.3N 114.3W 25.0N 115.5W 26.1N 115.6W 27.2N 116.6W
SHIP 49KTS 50KTS 47KTS 42KTS
DSHP 49KTS 50KTS 47KTS 42KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 18.0N LONCUR = 107.3W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 105.7W DIRM12 = 312DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 103.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Chacor]

Now TD 11E.

[Chacor]

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=102719

Tropical Depression Eleven-E forecast challenge.

[RL3AO]

Now TD 11E.

Gee, ya think?

[Chacor]

The first land threat since Alma.

WTPZ31 KNHC 231438
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112008
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...INTERESTS IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...555 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM PDT POSITION...18.4 N...107.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[CrazyC83]

Any plans to send Recon to this? It is a land threat on the current forecast.

[Thunder44]

Any plans to send Recon to this? It is a land threat on the current forecast.

The TCPOD sent today had no flights tasked into this storm. I don't think they will bother send a plane, unless it gets much stronger than what they are currently forecasting.

[HURAKAN]

It shouldn't be very strong when it makes landfall if it takes this route.

[RL3AO]

EP, 11, 2008082318, , BEST, 0, 191N, 1082W, 30, 1007, TD,

[pojo]

Any plans to send Recon to this? It is a land threat on the current forecast.

as of right now no....
if this becomes a threat to land than maybe....

[KWT]

Well its rather close to land though Pojo, would only take a moderate shift to the east and you have a real threat to land. Looks to me that this is well on its way to being a tropical storm.