Gustav Recon Discussion

[Cyclenall]

Can someone answer how the planes are flying over Cuba right now at operational height? I thought they could not do that at all?

[senorpepr]

I don't think they can use dropsondes overland, but they can fly over land.

[KWT]

Well looks like pressure is around 935mbs extrap, very impressive stuff

[Cyclenall]

I don't think they can use dropsondes overland, but they can fly over land.

No, for years I have heard that they can't fly over land at operational height period, not just measuring certain aspects of the storm.

[senorpepr]

I don't think they can use dropsondes overland, but they can fly over land.

No, for years I have heard that they can't fly over land at operational height period, not just measuring certain aspects of the storm.

I'm sure a lot of that has to do with local aviation regulations.

[canegrl04]

Well looks like pressure is around 935mbs extrap, very impressive stuff

I wonder how that compares to Katrina

[CrazyC83]

AF only extrapolated 945mb though, which is more realistic as it is probably weakening over land and the landfall pressure was 941mb.

[senorpepr]

AF only extrapolated 945mb though, which is more realistic as it is probably weakening over land and the landfall pressure was 941mb.

I'm not too quick to dismiss...

AF at 21:54:30 extrapolated 937 hPa, which jives with NOAA's 935 hPa.

EDIT: But to piggyback, it does look like some weakening has occurred with the latest being 941 hPa.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

how did they get 952? They reported 945 extrapolated! This is the second time that this issue has happened... unless there are issues with extrapolation over land

I was just thinking about something. NHOP (National Hurricane Operations Plan) says this about the HDOB surface pressures:

"Extrapolated surface pressure or D-value (30-s average). Encoded as extrapolated
surface pressure if aircraft static pressure is 550.0 mb or greater (i.e., flight
altitudes at or below 550 mb). Format for extrapolated surface pressure is the
same as for static pressure. For flight altitudes higher than 550 mb, XXXX is
encoded as the D-value, in meters. Negative D-values are encoded by adding
5000 to the D-value."

So what is considered the surface over land? Some of the land Gustav is going over is up 250 feet. Is the extrapolated surface pressure the extrapolated pressure at ground level or extrapolated mean sea level pressure (which is what vortex messages report)?

So would some of the HDOB estimates be closer to correct if it is estimating the ground level pressure rather than estimating what the mean sea level pressure would be if sea level existed where those hills are?

[CrazyC83]

Are there any planes currently stationed at Keesler AFB? Will they continue to fly out of Homestead?

[gotoman38]

Are there any planes currently stationed at Keesler AFB? Will they continue to fly out of Homestead?

I don't know, but my guess is that Keesler has totally bugged out by now.

[RL3AO]

URNT15 KNHC 310430
AF307 1807A GUSTAV HDOB 04 20080831
042000 2450N 08047W 6943 03200 0077 +088 +088 146040 040 999 999 03
042030 2450N 08049W 6942 03202 0074 +092 +092 145041 041 999 999 03
042100 2449N 08051W 6942 03200 0071 +092 +092 144042 042 038 000 03
042130 2449N 08053W 6942 03200 0070 +095 +095 144043 044 039 000 00
042200 2448N 08055W 6923 03214 0065 +092 +092 145043 044 043 000 03
042230 2448N 08057W 6915 03233 0068 +091 +091 143042 043 039 000 03
042300 2447N 08059W 6912 03234 0065 +095 +095 141040 040 041 000 03
042330 2447N 08101W 6917 03228 0066 +094 +094 141042 043 042 000 00
042400 2446N 08103W 6914 03231 0065 +092 +092 142044 045 043 000 00
042430 2446N 08105W 6913 03231 0066 +090 +090 138044 044 041 000 00
042500 2445N 08107W 6915 03227 0071 +084 +084 136046 046 045 000 03
042530 2445N 08109W 6917 03223 0072 +081 +081 136045 045 040 001 00
042600 2444N 08111W 6912 03228 0069 +085 +085 138046 046 039 000 00
042630 2444N 08113W 6914 03225 0068 +085 +085 136046 047 039 000 00
042700 2443N 08115W 6915 03223 0069 +085 +085 137048 049 039 000 00
042730 2443N 08117W 6915 03223 0066 +085 +085 140049 049 048 000 03
042800 2442N 08119W 6915 03223 0064 +085 +085 141049 050 999 999 03
042830 2442N 08121W 6912 03223 0063 +085 +085 141050 051 999 999 03
042900 2441N 08123W 6913 03223 0061 +085 +085 140050 051 999 999 03
042930 2441N 08125W 6914 03220 0059 +083 +083 139050 050 999 999 03
$$

[gotoman38]

Wrong thread! lol

it's not that late (yet)

URNT15 KNHC 310430
AF307 1807A GUSTAV HDOB 04 20080831
042000 2450N 08047W 6943 03200 0077 +088 +088 146040 040 999 999 03
042030 2450N 08049W 6942 03202 0074 +092 +092 145041 041 999 999 03
042100 2449N 08051W 6942 03200 0071 +092 +092 144042 042 038 000 03
042130 2449N 08053W 6942 03200 0070 +095 +095 144043 044 039 000 00
042200 2448N 08055W 6923 03214 0065 +092 +092 145043 044 043 000 03
042230 2448N 08057W 6915 03233 0068 +091 +091 143042 043 039 000 03
042300 2447N 08059W 6912 03234 0065 +095 +095 141040 040 041 000 03
042330 2447N 08101W 6917 03228 0066 +094 +094 141042 043 042 000 00
042400 2446N 08103W 6914 03231 0065 +092 +092 142044 045 043 000 00
042430 2446N 08105W 6913 03231 0066 +090 +090 138044 044 041 000 00
042500 2445N 08107W 6915 03227 0071 +084 +084 136046 046 045 000 03
042530 2445N 08109W 6917 03223 0072 +081 +081 136045 045 040 001 00
042600 2444N 08111W 6912 03228 0069 +085 +085 138046 046 039 000 00
042630 2444N 08113W 6914 03225 0068 +085 +085 136046 047 039 000 00
042700 2443N 08115W 6915 03223 0069 +085 +085 137048 049 039 000 00
042730 2443N 08117W 6915 03223 0066 +085 +085 140049 049 048 000 03
042800 2442N 08119W 6915 03223 0064 +085 +085 141049 050 999 999 03
042830 2442N 08121W 6912 03223 0063 +085 +085 141050 051 999 999 03
042900 2441N 08123W 6913 03223 0061 +085 +085 140050 051 999 999 03
042930 2441N 08125W 6914 03220 0059 +083 +083 139050 050 999 999 03
$$

[pojo]

Are there any planes currently stationed at Keesler AFB? Will they continue to fly out of Homestead?

there are no planes left at Keesler... all the weather birds are at Homestead AFS.

[pojo]

I don't think they can use dropsondes overland, but they can fly over land.

No, for years I have heard that they can't fly over land at operational height period, not just measuring certain aspects of the storm.

I'm sure a lot of that has to do with local aviation regulations.

aviation regulations prohibit the releasing anything without prior ATC consent.... if over land, must be dropped in rural areas or at designated drop zones (ie. Stennis Field, MS, Volk Field, WI). Dropsondes cannot be dropped over land... there are weather stations over land that can record the same information that we receive from the drops.

As for Cuba... once receive Cuban overflight privileges we can fly over at operational altitude... due to the proximity of Gustav to Homestead, most pilots will as for 700mb (10,000ft) as final altitude.

[gotoman38]

Thanks Pojo!

Eclipse should be over shortly - last images were 2.5 hrs ago - correct?

[gotoman38]

hmmmmm

Why did they fly back ENE along the coast of Cuba instead of tracking N and tracking the NW-SE compnoent first?

[cycloneye]

RL3AO,why 953 is conservative?

[RL3AO]

RL3AO,why 953 is conservative?

The dropsonde was 953mb with a 17kt wind.

[bvigal]

So, what have they found? Is it stronger, weaker, or the same as at 7pm update?