Ex Invest 96L - Bay of Campeche

[RL3AO]

[DESTRUCTION5]

now this i find hard to believe..

[opera ghost]

Good grief. I guess condensing three blobs at once makes for fewer sleepless nights over all.

[RL3AO]

Surface obs hint at a broad surface low with it.

[gboudx]

From the NHC:

3. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.


Just what is "significant development?"

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM GUSTAV...LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA...AND
HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT...LOCATED
ABOUT 355 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SPARSE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 775 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AT IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH.

A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND IS ABOUT TO EMERGE OVER THE EXTREME TROPICAL EASTERN
ATLANTIC. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[RL3AO]

From the NHC:

3. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.


Just what is "significant development?"

Tropical depression.

[CrazyC83]

It almost looks like a TD right now...I wonder if some crow will be eaten with this one...

[shah8]

I propose that we....um...BELIEVE the CMC when it shows 10 storms forming...

[Stormcenter]

It is it November yet?

[bob rulz]

I propose that we....um...BELIEVE the CMC when it shows 10 storms forming...

Ah the good 'ol CMC. Now is as good a time as any for it to verify. lol.

But yeah, this looks like a tropical depression for sure but it doesn't have a LLC. Still, I'm surprised it was only given a yellow.

[vaffie]

It's funny--I was showing my family a satellite picture of Gustav, and one of them points at the blob in the Gulf and says what's that--I say, oh, that's just a thunderstorm. Now it's it's own invest. and looking quite healthy too... Look at them. It's a trio now...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUIR.JPG

[HouTXmetro]

Will this help Pump a stronger Ridge in the GOM?

[HURAKAN]

[gboudx]

Is the fact that no pro's have commented on how this might affect Gus mean that they think it won't, or they need to analyze this new development?

[KWT]

CRAZY...this looks like a TD now, reminds me sort of Bret and Gert in 2005 in this location, given the high heat content and what looks like favorable conditions.

[Cryomaniac]

You realise if this were to become Ike today or tomorrow, we'd only be 2 storms behind 2005.

[KWT]

Well its fair to say we are now into the peak of the season, looks like a very busy few weeks coming up. Should think with that deep convection its got everything chance of being our next depression.

[Buck]

You realise if this were to become Ike today or tomorrow, we'd only be 2 storms behind 2005.

Wow, I didn't even think of that. Scary.

This thing looks pretty good right now. And just in the past few years there have been plenty of storms that in the morning, "significant development" was not expected and just a few hours later we had a tropical storm bombing out before moving inland. Should be interesting to watch at least.

[KWT]

Yeah Buck there were a few in 2005, Bret, Gert and Jose all formed in the same region as where 96L is. May npt have the time to do anything unless its moving away from land but it is interesting to see!