ATL IKE: Models Discussion

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 291250
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1250 UTC FRI AUG 29 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080829 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080829 1200 080830 0000 080830 1200 080831 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 20.5W 15.0N 24.4W 15.5N 28.3W 15.5N 32.3W
BAMD 14.2N 20.5W 14.8N 23.1W 15.6N 26.1W 16.5N 29.3W
BAMM 14.2N 20.5W 14.9N 23.6W 15.5N 27.0W 16.0N 30.5W
LBAR 14.2N 20.5W 14.9N 23.6W 15.8N 26.8W 16.9N 30.0W
SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS
DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 41KTS 51KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080831 1200 080901 1200 080902 1200 080903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.1N 35.8W 14.4N 39.7W 15.2N 42.1W 16.7N 46.7W
BAMD 17.3N 32.8W 18.7N 40.0W 20.1N 46.5W 22.6N 52.3W
BAMM 16.3N 34.2W 16.4N 40.4W 16.4N 45.5W 16.7N 50.4W
LBAR 17.9N 33.1W 20.2N 39.4W 20.9N 46.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 61KTS 75KTS 81KTS 80KTS
DSHP 61KTS 75KTS 81KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 20.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 17.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 19KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 11.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[HURAKAN]

I hope we have our first true fish. Bertha was not a true fish since it affected Bermuda.

[JtSmarts]

A long running Cat 5 fish would be wonderful.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF tracks west to westnorthwest not threatening the Caribbean:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[meteorologyman]

Hopefully it will be a fish but those spegghaeti runs are close to Bermuda.

Don't let your guard down.

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

593
WHXX01 KWBC 300049
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0049 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080830 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080830 0000 080830 1200 080831 0000 080831 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 22.5W 14.9N 25.3W 16.0N 28.8W 17.2N 32.6W
BAMD 13.5N 22.5W 14.4N 24.8W 15.3N 27.2W 16.1N 30.1W
BAMM 13.5N 22.5W 14.6N 24.9W 15.6N 27.6W 16.5N 30.8W
LBAR 13.5N 22.5W 14.2N 25.0W 15.2N 27.7W 16.2N 30.9W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080901 0000 080902 0000 080903 0000 080904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 18.1N 36.3W 20.6N 43.6W 24.9N 50.5W 32.0N 55.3W
BAMD 17.0N 33.2W 18.4N 39.5W 19.9N 46.2W 21.7N 52.8W
BAMM 17.5N 34.0W 19.2N 40.8W 21.4N 47.6W 24.6N 54.1W
LBAR 17.3N 34.0W 20.2N 40.9W 22.2N 49.0W .0N .0W
SHIP 53KTS 66KTS 69KTS 70KTS
DSHP 53KTS 66KTS 69KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 22.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 20.2W DIRM12 = 273DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 13.3N LONM24 = 17.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

The 00:00 UTC SHIP forecast shows light shear thru the period.

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *     GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING         *
                    *      INVEST  AL972008  08/30/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    34    38    45    53    59    66    70    69    68    70
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    34    38    45    53    59    66    70    69    68    70
V (KT) LGE mod    25    26    27    29    31    36    43    49    56    64    70    74    76

SHEAR (KTS)        8     8     4     4     5     6     7     5     8     7    14    10     9
SHEAR DIR          7     9   328   350   286   245   222   232   109    73   101   105   129
SST (C)         27.5  27.5  27.5  27.4  27.1  26.6  26.1  26.0  26.2  26.8  27.1  27.2  27.9
POT. INT. (KT)   131   131   131   130   127   122   117   116   118   124   128   129   138
ADJ. POT. INT.   128   129   130   128   125   120   114   113   114   120   123   122   130
200 MB T (C)   -53.7 -53.5 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C)       6     7     7     7     6     7     7     8     8     8     9     9    11
700-500 MB RH     79    77    77    76    77    70    67    59    59    52    54    51    47
GFS VTEX (KT)     13    13    12    12    12    11    11     9    10     8     6     4  LOST
850 MB ENV VOR    93    74    68    71    78    61    51    24    19     8   -25   -25   -22
200 MB DIV        78    31    51    43    31    23    20    16    14    11   -16    13    19
LAND (KM)        557   672   795   939  1086  1435  1786  2155  2031  1904  1853  1619  1389
LAT (DEG N)     13.5  14.1  14.6  15.1  15.6  16.5  17.5  18.3  19.2  20.1  21.4  22.8  24.6
LONG(DEG W)     22.5  23.7  24.9  26.3  27.6  30.8  34.0  37.4  40.8  44.2  47.6  50.9  54.1
STM SPEED (KT)    12    13    14    14    15    16    16    17    17    17    17    17    17
HEAT CONTENT       5     7     8     3     6     4     0     0     3    14    18    17    29

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12      CX,CY: -11/  0
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  477  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   4.   8.  13.  17.  21.  24.  26.  28.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   2.   4.   6.   8.  10.  12.  14.  14.  13.  13.  13.
  PERSISTENCE            0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -7.  -7.  -7.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -4.  -5.  -7.  -9.  -9.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   4.   3.   3.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       2.   5.   9.  13.  20.  28.  34.  41.  45.  44.  43.  45.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR STD DEV        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      2.   5.   9.  13.  20.  28.  34.  41.  45.  44.  43.  45.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972008     INVEST 08/30/08  00 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):   0.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  1.1
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.9 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  46.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.4/  0.6
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 103.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.9
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  79.8 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  0.3
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :   5.8 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.0/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=   999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)


[meteorologyman]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picser ... p?t=m&m=97

This is good news

[meteorologyman]

hmmmmm... The first run (cyclone eye posted up above) forecast the wave to go NW. on the 2nd run (i just posted) showed the center going due west and is now expecting to take a sharp NW turn????

[cycloneye]

06z GFDL has a hurricane longtracker.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF also has a longtracking hurricane,but distint from GFDL,this model does not go north.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

GFDL is again with it.Here is the 12z run:

WHXX04 KWBC 311728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 97L

INITIAL TIME 12Z AUG 31

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 15.7 30.9 270./12.0
6 16.7 32.9 297./21.2
12 17.4 35.1 287./22.1
18 17.8 37.1 280./20.0
24 17.8 39.3 271./20.4
30 17.9 40.6 274./12.7
36 18.6 42.7 288./20.5
42 18.9 43.8 285./11.1
48 19.3 44.9 291./11.4
54 20.1 46.1 302./13.7
60 21.1 47.6 304./17.1
66 21.9 49.3 296./17.5
72 22.8 51.0 299./18.4
78 23.6 52.6 296./17.0
84 24.4 54.1 297./15.4
90 25.2 55.6 300./16.3
96 26.1 57.1 300./15.6
102 27.0 58.2 309./13.0
108 27.7 59.1 306./11.2
114 28.4 60.0 307./10.5
120 28.5 60.9 277./ 7.9
126 28.5 61.9 272./ 8.6

[cycloneye]

12z UKMET:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

12z EURO. Look where it ends.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

[Trader Ron]

12z EURO. Look where it ends.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7091412!!/

11 day's out...nuff said...

[x-y-no]

12ZECMWF

In the Bahamas on day 7:

[KWT]

Yep very impressive looking system on the ECM, moves across very rapidly for that to 97L mind you on the ECM but then again the models do suggest a quick motion across the Atlantic.

Most models bend this back westwards, even the models that get pretty far north.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 010040
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC MON SEP 1 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972008) 20080901 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080901 0000 080901 1200 080902 0000 080902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 34.7W 18.1N 37.8W 19.3N 41.0W 20.5N 44.4W
BAMD 16.9N 34.7W 17.6N 37.4W 18.3N 40.2W 18.8N 43.2W
BAMM 16.9N 34.7W 17.7N 37.7W 18.6N 40.7W 19.3N 43.8W
LBAR 16.9N 34.7W 18.0N 37.6W 19.1N 40.9W 20.3N 44.3W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080903 0000 080904 0000 080905 0000 080906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.1N 47.9W 26.0N 55.1W 30.1N 60.2W 31.6N 62.7W
BAMD 19.2N 46.1W 19.9N 52.5W 20.2N 59.1W 19.6N 66.1W
BAMM 20.1N 46.8W 21.9N 53.3W 23.8N 59.5W 24.0N 64.8W
LBAR 21.8N 47.7W 25.7N 53.5W 28.1N 56.9W 26.8N 58.8W
SHIP 54KTS 60KTS 59KTS 55KTS
DSHP 54KTS 60KTS 59KTS 55KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 34.7W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.9N LONM12 = 31.8W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 15.8N LONM24 = 29.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 375NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

18z HWRF run that tracks to the Leeward islands.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

18z GFDL:



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation