ATL IKE: HPC Advisories

[cycloneye]

WTNT24 KNHC 011443
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC MON SEP 01 2008

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 39.5W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 39.5W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 38.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.0N 41.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 44.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.0N 47.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.5N 50.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 23.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 23.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 39.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

966
WTNT34 KNHC 011443
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS HALF WAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS...COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE
39.5 WEST OR ABOUT 1470 MILES...2365 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.6 N...39.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 011443
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED PLENTLY OF CONVECTION..NUMEROUS
CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. DVORAK
T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT THIS TIME BUT I WOULD
RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF THE DEEP CONVECTION HOLDS FOR WHILE TO CALL IT
A TROPICAL STORM...PROBABLY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE
LOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL.

SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A
LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.
THE
DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 17.6N 39.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 18.0N 41.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 19.0N 44.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 20.0N 47.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.5N 50.5W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 22.0N 56.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 62.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 23.5N 68.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT24 KNHC 012040
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC MON SEP 01 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 40.6W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 40.6W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 40.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.0N 42.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.5N 45.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 48.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.0N 69.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 40.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 012043
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

SATELLITE IMAGES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED...CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT
AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS
BASIS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IKE WITH AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH
AND THE LOW SHEAR...IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAN THE HWRF. THE LATTER MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE
NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE STORM
IS ALREADY LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS
BUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS
FARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST OR EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST . THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2100Z 17.7N 40.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.0N 42.8W 50 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 18.5N 45.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.5N 48.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 51.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 58.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 64.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 22.0N 69.5W 80 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT24 KNHC 020239
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 41.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 75SE 0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 41.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 40.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.5N 43.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.2N 46.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 49.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.8N 52.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 41.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST MON SEP 01 2008

...IKE CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.6 WEST OR ABOUT 1330
MILES...2145 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND A MOTION
MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...18.0 N...41.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 020300
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008

MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE BANDING FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE
HAS ERODED A BIT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.
REGARDLESS...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT
AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON A CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTHENING RATE WITH TIME...AND SUGGEST
THAT IKE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THERE IS
HOWEVER A LITTLE DIVERGENCE IN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING
BEYOND 48 HOURS. BOTH THE GFDL AND THE HWRF INTENSIFY IKE INTO A
POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE WEAKENING
DUE TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 275/12...WITHIN IN THE DEEP
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...THE UKMET IS THE ONLY
GLOBAL MODEL OUTSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CLUSTER AND INDICATES A MORE
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD MOTION. THE UKMET TRACK IS MORE THAN
LIKELY DUE TO A DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CREATED BY A
SLOWER MOVING HURRICANE HANNA. ACCORDINGLY...THE NHC FORECAST IS
WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS THAT SUGGEST A
WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0300Z 18.0N 41.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1200Z 18.5N 43.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0000Z 19.2N 46.7W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 49.6W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/0000Z 20.8N 52.7W 75 KT
72HR VT 05/0000Z 22.0N 59.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 06/0000Z 22.0N 65.0W 85 KT
120HR VT 07/0000Z 22.0N 71.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL STORM IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 43.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 30SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 43.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 42.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.0N 45.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.6N 48.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 25SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.2N 51.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.8N 54.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 60.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 21.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 43.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...IKE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.1 WEST OR ABOUT 1235 MILES
...1985 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...18.6 N...43.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

NNNN


TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE BANDING EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SURFACE
CIRCULATION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN
3.0 OR 45 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY.

AN AMSU PASS AT 0020Z PROVIDED SOME CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATING A TRACK
AT 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING BRISKLY
OFF TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. AS THE CUTOFF LOW CURENTLY
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE SHOULD RETROGRADE TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
MOTION WESTWARD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ALONG ABOUT
20N WOULD BE SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY OUR MOST
RELIABLE TRACK MODELS. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN A RELATIVELY
TIGHT CLUSTER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE MORE NORTHERLY PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MORE PROBLEMATIC. IN THE NEAR
TERM...IKE IS IN A CONDUCIVE DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT...BUT THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARM SSTS AND A
POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO ITS SOUTH. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE
OCEAN TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO 29C...BUT THE SHEAR SHOULD
INCREASE AS FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW EAST OF IKE AND THE UPPER
RIDGE NORTHWEST OF IKE IS PREDICTED TO PRODUCE 30 KT
NORTHEASTERLIES. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
CALLING FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS
WHICH SUGGEST A MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS
NEARLY THE SAME AS PROVIDED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 18.6N 43.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 19.0N 45.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 19.6N 48.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.2N 51.3W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 20.8N 54.3W 75 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 21.5N 60.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 21.5N 66.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 21.5N 72.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH

[RL3AO]

152
WTNT24 KNHC 021456
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 45.0W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 30SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 45.0W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 44.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.3N 47.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.9N 50.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.5N 53.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.5N 62.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB


483
WTNT34 KNHC 021456
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...IKE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1110
MILES...1785 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AND IKE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...18.9 N...45.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 021459
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IKE HAS A COMPACT AND
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS
PRIMARILY BEEN LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 0847 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
HAS EXPANDED A BIT...AND A FEW 50-55 KT BARBS WERE LOCATED WITHIN
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE
DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS RAISED CONSERVATIVELY TO 50 KT.

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF
IKE. MOST MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN...ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TO
DAY 5. IN FACT...WITH A LATITUDINAL SPREAD OF ONLY 5 DEGREES AT DAY
5...WE COULDN'T HAVE ASKED FOR BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE.
THE STORM HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED WITH AN AVERAGE MOTION OF
280/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS IKE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST IN TANDEM
WITH THE CYCLONE. SOME OF THE MODELS... PARTICULARLY THE GFDL AND
HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD BEND AND BRING IKE VERY CLOSE TO OR
OVER HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE MODELS BRING IKE TO A
MAJOR HURRICANE...AND SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES
NOT CALL FOR SUCH STRENGTHENING...I PREFER TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS.

THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES THAT RELATIVELY DRY
AIR ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDS IKE. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM...IT IS PROBABLY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DRY AIR AND WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN SO UNTIL IT CAN DEVELOP JUST ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION
TO ISOLATE ITSELF. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE
SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE
BEFORE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS.
THE GFDL AND HWRF APPARENTLY IGNORE SUCH SHEAR AND FORECAST IKE TO
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. WHILE THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
A POSSIBILITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 18.9N 45.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.3N 47.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 19.9N 50.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 20.5N 53.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.0N 56.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 21.5N 62.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 68.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 21.5N 74.0W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT24 KNHC 022040
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC TUE SEP 02 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 46.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 45SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 60SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 46.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 45.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.6N 48.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.3N 51.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.6N 57.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 21.5N 69.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 46.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1030 MILES
...1655 KM...EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. IKE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...19.2 N...46.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT44 KNHC 022042
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

AFTER LOOKING CONVECTIVELY ASYMMETRIC THIS MORNING...IKE HAS
WRAPPED A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER
EXCEPT FOR SMALL BREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. CONSEQUENTLY...
DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE.

IKE CONTINUES TO CHUG ALONG WITHIN THE TRADES AT 280/15. THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IKE...STEERING
IT WESTWARD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC AND
RESULT IN VERY LITTLE POLEWARD MOTION IN THE COMING DAYS. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...THE
MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING IS THE TRACK OF THE UKMET...
WHICH CURVES IKE TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 65W IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER
WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE UKMET AND
FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS...SHOWING A SLIGHT
SOUTH-OF-DUE-WEST MOTION IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE EXACT STEERING REGIME AT DAY 5 REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...
AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RECONCILES THIS BY SHOWING A MORE OR LESS
WESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGREEABLE IN THE SHORT-TERM...
BRINGING IKE TO A HURRICANE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS. BEYOND
THAT...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE A BIT RESERVED AND SHOW
PEAK INTENSITIES OF 70-80 KT BEFORE MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SETS
IN BY 48 HOURS. THE HWRF MODEL IS WELL ABOVE ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE
AND IN GENERAL ITS SOLUTION IS NOT COUNTED AT THIS TIME.
STILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE REASON THAT INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD NOT OCCUR SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE GFDL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/2100Z 19.2N 46.3W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0600Z 19.6N 48.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 03/1800Z 20.3N 51.8W 70 KT
36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.0N 55.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 04/1800Z 21.6N 57.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/1800Z 22.0N 63.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 06/1800Z 21.5N 69.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 07/1800Z 21.5N 75.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER BERG/KNABB

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC WED SEP 03 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 47.9W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 60SE 45SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 60SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 47.9W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 47.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.3N 50.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.0N 53.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 22.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.5N 59.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 22.1N 76.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 47.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 02 2008

...IKE HEADING TOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A CYCLONE TO CAREFULLY
WATCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST OR ABOUT 930
MILES...1500 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A
MOTION BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
IKE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...19.9 N...47.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

105
WTNT44 KNHC 030251
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE OUTFLOW
IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER...IKE LACKS AN INNER CORE
AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND MAINLY
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT SHOW
ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 45 KNOTS BUT DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE 55 KNOTS..AND THIS NUMBER IS USED FOR THE
INITIAL INTENSITY. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR A
DAY OR SO...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE ANYTIME SOON. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS... A STRONG
EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND COULD DELAY THE
INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. HOWEVER...EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT AS
NEGATIVE AS WESTERLY SHEAR FOR A CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY. ALTHOUGH
BOTH GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IKE AN INTENSE CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BAHAMAS IN FIVE DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE
MODERATE...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

IKE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS EXPAND AND
BUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE RIDGE BECOMES SO STRONG BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT MODELS TURN IKE ON A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
TRACK. THIS SHIFT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL...WHICH MOVES IKE WITH A MORE
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED PLACING THE CYCLONE IN THE SOUTH/CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN FIVE
DAYS. THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 19.9N 47.9W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 20.3N 50.3W 65 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 21.0N 53.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 22.0N 56.5W 75 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 22.5N 59.5W 80 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 22.5N 64.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 07/0000Z 22.5N 70.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 22.1N 76.0W 95 KT

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 030835
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

IKE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION
AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AROUND THE
STORM...WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LACK A WELL-DEFINED
INNER CORE AND...UNTIL THIS INNER CORE BECOMES ESTABLISHED...
STRENGTHENING WILL BE SLOW. HOWEVER...ONCE AN EYEWALL BECOMES
DEFINED THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD INCREASE. THE ONLY
OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING IS AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR AROUND 48 HOURS AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THIS IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF MUCH OF OUR NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
HURRICANE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLIGHT ACCELERATION AND THE LATEST GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES REQUIRE A BIT OF A NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK. INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 285/16. THE
TRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS SEEMS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE STORM
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A
BUILDING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
OF IKE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND THIS WOULD FORCE A TURN TOWARD THE
LEFT. HOWEVER THE TRACK MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL TURN. THE GFDL AND DEEP-LAYER BAM ARE THE
SOUTHERNMOST AND BRING IKE OVER HISPANIOLA WHEREAS THE U.K. MET
OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH IS ALSO A CREDIBLE MODEL...TAKES THE
CYCLONE TO MUCH HIGHER LATITUDES. ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT NORTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RECENT
TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND LIES NEAR THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.6N 49.6W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 21.3N 52.2W 65 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 22.2N 55.1W 70 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 22.8N 58.0W 75 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 23.2N 60.8W 80 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 23.0N 66.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 07/0600Z 22.5N 71.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 08/0600Z 22.5N 76.0W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC WED SEP 03 2008

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 51.2W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 45SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 60SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 51.2W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 50.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 21.7N 53.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 23.1N 56.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.8N 59.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 22.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 22.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 51.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE ALMOST A HURRICANE...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST OR ABOUT 740
MILES...1190 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY...TAKING IKE
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS
MIGHT BE DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 991 MB...29.26 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...20.8 N...51.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

IKE IS WRAPPING UP SOME SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDING AS VIEWED IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND SINCE A PARTIAL OVERPASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO
FROM AMSR-E SUGGESTED A MICROWAVE EYE WAS FORMING...WE MIGHT SEE AN
EYE IN THE VISIBLE BEFORE TOO MUCH LONGER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC WERE A CONSENSUS 4.0...BUT OBJECTIVE NUMBERS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT FOR NOW. IN
ANY CASE...IKE IS ON THE CUSP OF BEING A HURRICANE AND SHOULD BE
ONE LATER TODAY. THE UNDERLYING OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET
WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...MAXIMIZING BEYOND 48 HOURS NEAR
29 CELSIUS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STRENGTHENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...IKE
MIGHT ENCOUNTER A LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST
ANY WEAKENING AS A RESULT...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST ROBUST
STRENGTHENING...UNTIL IKE HEADS FARTHER WEST...ESCAPES THE
SHEAR...AND MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS NEAR THE GREATER
ANTILLES. STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5 IN LINE
WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS...AND IKE COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE FIVE DAYS PASS.

IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
MODELS FORECAST IKE TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AROUND THAT
RIDGE...BUT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS IT WILL RUN INTO A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THAT FEATURE...BUT THEY
DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT LATITUDE OR THE SPEED OF THAT WESTWARD
MOTION. THE CONSENSUS HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE LATE IN THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...BUT
OTHERWISE THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT FOR
A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.8N 51.2W 60 KT
12HR VT 04/0000Z 21.7N 53.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 04/1200Z 23.1N 56.8W 70 KT
36HR VT 05/0000Z 23.8N 59.4W 70 KT
48HR VT 05/1200Z 24.0N 62.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 06/1200Z 22.5N 67.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 07/1200Z 22.0N 71.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 08/1200Z 22.5N 75.5W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT24 KNHC 032042
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2008

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 52.7W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 75SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 52.7W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 51.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.6N 55.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.8N 57.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.3N 60.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.8N 63.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 52.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC WED SEP 03 2008

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 52.7W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 75SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 52.7W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 51.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 22.6N 55.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 23.8N 57.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 24.3N 60.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.8N 63.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 52.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE BECOMES THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.7 WEST OR ABOUT 670 MILES...1080
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE
AFFECTED BY IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...21.6 N...52.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008

AS ANTICIPATED...IKE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND ALL
SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES SAY IT HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. SINCE THE
1800 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN
LATE-DAY VISIBLE IMAGERY...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT. THE
CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING WITHIN A COCOON OF NEARLY ZERO VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR...IN BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHERLIES ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN TROUGH ARE
STARTING TO JUST SLIGHTLY RESTRICT IKE'S OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST...BUT PROBABLY NOT
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO HALT IKE'S INTENSIFICATION TREND IN THE SHORT
TERM. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS AN INTERMEDIATE INTENSITY
PEAK AT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE SHEAR...FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHT WEAKENING UNTIL THE SHEAR ABATES AFTER IKE GETS FARTHER
WEST. BY THAT TIME...IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC
FACTORS BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF...FORECAST A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAYS
4 AND 5...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LONG-RANGE
INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...AND THE
INTENSITY PROBABILITY TABLE INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE
INDICATES THAT THERE IS ROUGHLY A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IKE WILL
BE A MAJOR HURRICANE FOUR AND FIVE DAYS FROM NOW. IF IKE IS WEAKER
THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5...THEN THE
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM WILL TURN OUT TO BE
MORE ACCURATE.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/16. AS
THE LARGE AND DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL PUSH IKE GENERALLY WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UNDULATIONS IN THE TRACK ARE
LIKELY THOUGH. IKE SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FORMS...AFTER WHICH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
WILL GRADUALLY ROUND THAT RIDGE. THE BIG QUESTION AT LONGER RANGES
IS IF AND WHEN IKE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT
RIDGE...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER IKE DIRECTLY AFFECTS ANY LAND
AREAS. THE MODELS DO NOT PROVIDE AN UNANIMOUS ANSWER...WHICH IS
NOT SURPRISING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. ALL OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE
BEGINNINGS OF A MOTION NORTH OF DUE WEST BY DAY 5...BUT IT IS TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS THE START OF RECURVATURE...OR IF
ENOUGH RIDGING WILL REMAIN BEYOND DAY 5 TO KEEP IKE MOVING
GENERALLY WESTWARD.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 21.6N 52.7W 70 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 22.6N 55.1W 75 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 23.8N 57.9W 85 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 24.3N 60.4W 80 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 23.8N 63.1W 80 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 22.5N 68.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 22.5N 72.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 23.5N 76.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 032345
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM AST WED SEP 03 2008

...IKE BECOMES THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.2 WEST OR ABOUT 645 MILES...1035
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...TAKING IKE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT IF ANY LAND AREAS MIGHT EVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY
IKE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THIRD HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...21.7 N...53.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE