ATL IKE: HPC Advisories

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC THU SEP 11 2008

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH
OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 88.4W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT.......230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 240SE 240SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 88.4W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 88.0W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.9N 90.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT...230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.6N 92.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT...230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.8N 94.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 240SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N 95.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...120NE 125SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.5N 94.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 38.0N 85.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 88.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE BUT HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS
COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

AT 10 AM CDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH
OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST OR ABOUT 580 MILES...
930 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES
...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST BY LATE
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...25.5 N...88.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

DATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IKE IS
MAINTAINING AN ATYPICAL WIND STRUCTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY
BROAD WIND FIELD WITH MULTIPLE WIND MAXIMA AND RELATIVELY LITTLE
TRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT
REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103 KT 100 NMI
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA
INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 65
KT. IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING AT THE SURFACE RECENTLY THAT
QUITE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 85 KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.

FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE WIND STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IS
EVEN MORE CHALLENGING THAN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY...BUT IKE HAS
PLENTY OF TIME FOR ONE OF THE OUTER MAXIMA TO CONTRACT AND FOR THE
WINDS TO TRY TO CATCH UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...CURRENTLY ABOUT
945 MB. ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE
NORTHWEST...IT IS STRONG ELSEWHERE AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE UPWELLING/MIXING OF
COOLER WATER AHEAD OF THE PATH OF IKE DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE
EXPANSE OF STRONG WINDS. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NEAR LANDFALL
RANGES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR FROM THE GFDL TO CATEGORY TWO FROM THE
SHIPS MODEL...ABOUT THE ERROR ONE CAN EXPECT FROM AN OFFICIAL
FORECAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY SPLITS
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND ANTICIPATES THAT
IKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST THINKING THROUGH LANDFALL...WITH IKE EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING UNTIL VERY NEAR
LANDFALL...WHEN IT SHOULD GENTLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AT THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS
NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT AND THE GFS
TO THE LEFT. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE TYPICAL FORECAST ERRORS FOR A
48 HOUR FORECAST...AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...IT IS
IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/1500Z 25.5N 88.4W 85 KT
12HR VT 12/0000Z 25.9N 90.0W 90 KT
24HR VT 12/1200Z 26.6N 92.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 13/0000Z 27.8N 94.2W 105 KT
48HR VT 13/1200Z 29.5N 95.9W 100 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/1200Z 34.5N 94.0W 35 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/1200Z 38.0N 85.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 16/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 42A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...LARGE HURRICANE IKE MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES...
710 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 470 MILES
...760 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE HAS MADE A SMALL JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10
MPH...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD BE VERY NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 7 FEET ABOVE NORMAL
TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...25.8 N...88.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC THU SEP 11 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 89.4W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT.......230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 240SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 89.4W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 88.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.6N 90.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT...230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.6N 93.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 140NW.
34 KT...230NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.0N 95.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...200NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 110SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 37.0N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 89.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE HEADED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST OR ABOUT 510 MILES...820
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 400 MILES...
645 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST
BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.
IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING THE
COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE DATA WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXCEPT AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...WHERE SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FT COULD OCCUR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N...89.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

A PAIR OF DROPSONDES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT
FINALLY PROVIDED SOME HARD DATA TO SUPPORT THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY...WITH LOWER-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 96 KT...WHICH ADJUST TO
80 KT AT THE SURFACE. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER
WIND MAXIMUM HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...AND THE INNERMOST RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW AROUND 60 NMI. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WINDS THERE
ARE ABOUT 100 KT...AND NEARLY THAT STRONG OUT TO AT LEAST 100 NMI.
AS THE INNER WIND MAXIMUM DISSIPATED...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO
ABOUT 954 MB...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN TO 950 MB.

THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. FACTORS INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...STRONG WINDS OVER
AREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF
IKE...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT
AND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED...
CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY. HOWEVER...THIS LATTER UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IKE ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...AND IN THIS
CONFIGURATION WOULD PROVIDE AN UPPER PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE TO
STRENGTHENING RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. CURRENTLY THE OUTFLOW IS VERY
WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN
BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.

IKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO GENTLY RECURVE
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN 48-72 HOURS. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE
HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
THROUGH LANDFALL. AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD...A SLIGHT BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT IS EXPECTED
PRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...BUT IS STILL JUST LEFT OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE AVERAGE 36-HOUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 NMI.

BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IKE
WILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 26.0N 89.4W 85 KT
12HR VT 12/0600Z 26.6N 90.9W 90 KT
24HR VT 12/1800Z 27.6N 93.0W 95 KT
36HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 95.0W 105 KT
48HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 95.5W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/1800Z 37.0N 90.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 43A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH YET AS IKE HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BY LATE FRIDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST OR ABOUT 475 MILES...760
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 370 MILES...
595 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE LONG BEFORE
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...BUT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
PRIOR TO REACHING THE COASTLINE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXCEPT AT THE HEADS OF BAYS...WHERE SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

REPEATING THE 700 PM CDT POSITION...26.2 N...89.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...BUT A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 90.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT.......230NE 230SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 90.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 89.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.1N 92.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 94.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 240SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 100SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.9N 95.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 39.0N 88.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 90.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

...IKE REMAINS A LARGE CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AND POSES A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE HAZARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT MANSFIELD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...BUT A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY
TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW
ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.4 WEST OR ABOUT 445 MILES...
715 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 340 MILES
...545 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE FRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE EARLY ON FRIDAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA IS 956
MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...26.3 N...90.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/BERG

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008

IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH...SIZE...AND STRUCTURE
THIS EVENING. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS NOT RID ITSELF OF WHAT
REMAINS OF THE OLD INNER EYEWALL...BUT RECON SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT FEATURE.
INSTEAD...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS EVEN A LITTLE
FARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE...NOW ABOUT 80 N MI. SFMR RETRIEVED WIND
SPEEDS AND LOW-LAYER AVERAGES FROM DROPSONDES IN THAT MAXIMUM WIND
BAND SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT. ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A
LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS...PROVIDING THE CYCLONE SOME OPPORTUNITY
TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE SLOWLY-CHANGING
STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND NONE OF
THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY FORECASTS IKE TO REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE WATERS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE NOT EXACTLY COLD...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST STILL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE
GUIDANCE. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST.

IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/10 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...AND THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL
ROUND THAT RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD IN GENERAL LAST UNTIL IKE IS NEAR OR OVER THE
COASTLINE...BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY
UNCERTAIN THAT ONE CANNOT SPECIFY A TIME AND LOCATION OF FINAL
LANDFALL OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF
THE CYCLONE...HOWEVER...IKE WILL AFFECT A VERY LARGE AREA
REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER GOES. DAMAGING WINDS AND
DANGEROUS STORM SURGES COULD EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION...AND CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL DETERIORATE
TOMORROW WELL IN ADVANCE OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS HAVE NOT TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER SINCE
THE LAST CYCLE...AND ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED RIGHT AROUND THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS CHANGED NEGLIGIBLY ON
THIS ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE DURING THE INLAND RECURVATURE...AND THE FORECAST NOW DESIGNATES
IKE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0300Z 26.3N 90.4W 85 KT
12HR VT 12/1200Z 27.1N 92.1W 90 KT
24HR VT 13/0000Z 28.5N 94.1W 95 KT
36HR VT 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.5W 65 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/0000Z 32.9N 95.7W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/0000Z 39.0N 88.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 44A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...LARGE CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE IKE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.1 WEST OR ABOUT 405 MILES...
650 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 300 MILES
...485 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE TODAY.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY
LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE
COASTLINE EARLY TODAY...LONG BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR
SO...AND IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE
COAST.

THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT IKE REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185
KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 265 MILES...425 KM. AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
78 MPH...126 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 400 FEET.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS. COASTAL STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE
AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 100 AM CDT POSITION...26.4 N...91.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0900 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 91.6W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT.......105NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 360SE 300SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 91.6W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 91.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.4N 93.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.3N 95.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...125NE 175SE 75SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 34.4N 94.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 41.0N 84.0W...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 91.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE GETS A LITTLE STRONGER...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AN PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.6 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585
KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 265 MILES...425 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...
165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 89 MPH...144 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF
400 FEET.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...26.7 N...91.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND SFMR-BASED
SURFACE WINDS OF 92 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...
A DROPSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 85-90
KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT.
ALTHOUGH IKE HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
STILL WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...OCCURRING ABOUT 50-60 N MI
AWAY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY
THE AIRCRAFT WAS 953 MB.

IKE WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A MOTION OF 290/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IKE IS MOVING
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD A BREAK CAUSED BY A TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. IKE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING
THE NEXT 36 HR...THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES
THEREAFTER. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEFORE LANDFALL AND A SLOWER
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK
GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND
BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AFTER 36 HR.

THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE
UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IKE IS UNDERGOING ABOUT 15 KT
OF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME NORTHERLY
SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL. THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF
AN INNER CORE...SUGGESTS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST. HOWEVER...IKE
IS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
CENTER...AND THE SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING
THIS MORNING. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST SOME MODEST
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING AN
INTENSITY OF JUST OVER 100 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR IKE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HR.
IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL...THE EFFECTS
WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE VERY
LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/0900Z 26.7N 91.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 12/1800Z 27.4N 93.2W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W 100 KT
36HR VT 13/1800Z 31.3N 95.7W 55 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/0600Z 34.4N 94.7W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/0600Z 41.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 16/0600Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

911
WTNT34 KNHC 121150
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
700 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AN PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 700 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 365 MILES...585
KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 230 MILES...370 KM...
SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE TODAY...LONG
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND IKE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
AN OIL PLATFORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 MPH...176 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF
400 FEET.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES
LANDFALL...EXTENDING A GREATER THAN USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER
DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. SURGE FLOODING OF UP
TO 25 FEET...AND POSSIBLY HIGHER...COULD OCCUR AT THE HEADS OF BAYS.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 700 AM CDT POSITION...26.9 N...92.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[dixiebreeze]

Why aren't the advisories updating on NHC?

[cycloneye]

Because it has not been released yet.Sometimes they release them more early than others.

[cycloneye]

WTNT24 KNHC 121450
TCMAT4
HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1500 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 92.6W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT.......105NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 360SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 92.6W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 92.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.0N 95.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT...105NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.0N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.2N 92.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

331
WTNT34 KNHC 121453
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...100 MPH PLUS WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST BY
MIDNIGHT...WEATHER SHOULD DETERIORATE EARLIER...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
480 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS AND ABOUT 195 MILES...320 KM
...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
SOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO
NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 1000 AM CDT POSITION...27.2 N...92.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT44 KNHC 121456
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT IKE HAS NOT
DEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE AS ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN THIS
REEMPHASIZES THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE INNER
CORE STRUCTURE OF A HURRICANE WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN INTENSITY.
AN ELEVATED PLATFORM...122 METERS...400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN
COMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.
IKE CONTINUES AS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE PRODUCING HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ABOUT 105 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY
TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE. IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH
A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW AND IKE
CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AT 10 KNOTS. THIS
GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS
IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY HAS THE
HURRICANE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/1500Z 27.2N 92.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/1200Z 30.0N 95.5W 80 KT
36HR VT 14/0000Z 32.5N 96.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1200Z 36.0N 93.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS HURRICANE
IKE APPROACHES....

AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF
PORT ARANSAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 270
MILES...430 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
VERY SOON.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO
NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N...93.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[RL3AO]

HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 46A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...WINDS AND SEAS INCREASING ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AS HURRICANE
IKE APPROACHES....

AT 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS
TEXAS HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO NORTH OF
PORT ARANSAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST OR ABOUT 165
MILES...270 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 270
MILES...430 KM...EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...WITH A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY LATE TODAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE IKE IS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE COASTLINE
VERY SOON.

DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO
NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDE ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 100 PM CDT POSITION...27.4 N...93.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
2100 UTC FRI SEP 12 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 93.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT.......105NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 150SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 360SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 93.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 93.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT...105NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 75SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 150SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.5N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 150SE 45SW 45NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 35.0N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 38.5N 89.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 93.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
400 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE`S FURY AIMED AT THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.5 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...220
KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...
EAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 12
MPH...19 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATE TODAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE BUT COULD REACH THE COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH A FEW SPOTS TO
NEAR 25 FEET...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY MORE THAN 5 FEET ALONG
MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...27.7 N...93.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 600 PM CDT AND 800 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE
WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE
ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART
TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH
TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION. ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS
THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BY 48 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER
LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 27.7N 93.5W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 96.0W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/0600Z 35.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1800Z 38.5N 89.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[cycloneye]

WTNT34 KNHC 122255
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
600 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE STRENGTHENS SOME AS IT BEARS DOWN ON GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE
UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...RISING WATER LEVELS AND BATTERING WAVES AFFECTING THE AREA...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 600 PM CDT...2300Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 105 MILES
...170 KM...SOUTH OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13
MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE IKE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 954 MB...28.17 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 600 PM CDT POSITION...28.2 N...93.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

338
WTNT34 KNHC 130058
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
800 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...IKE'S OUTER RAINBANDS LASHING THE UPPER TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA COASTS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF VERY LARGE HURRICANE IKE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST OR ABOUT 70
MILES...115 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 95 MILES
...155 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BEAUMONT TEXAS.

IKE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST NEAR 13
MPH...20 KM/HR. A NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
BY LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST SATURDAY
MORNING AS A CATEGORY THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE. STRONGER WINDS...
ESPECIALLY IN STRONGER GUSTS...ARE LIKELY ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON
GALVESTON ISLAND AND A GUST TO 70 MPH WAS MEASURED AT A NOAA BUOY
JUST OFFSHORE GALVESTON ISLAND BEFORE IT STOPPED REPORTING.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN BY 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

REPEATING THE 800 PM CDT POSITION...28.4 N...94.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[Brent]

HURRICANE IKE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
0300 UTC SAT SEP 13 2008

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 94.4W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT.......110NE 90SE 55SW 75NW.
50 KT.......160NE 160SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..425NE 425SE 270SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 94.4W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 94.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...175NE 200SE 150SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 90SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.6N 92.3W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 40.5N 86.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE INLAND

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 94.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...LARGE HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES ITS TREK TOWARD GALVESTON ISLAND
AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON GALVESTON ISLAND...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...
85 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 95 MILES...150
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS...
AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR ON HIGH
RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON
GALVESTON ISLAND AND REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE
GALVESTON ISLAND.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...28.6 N...94.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1200 AM CDT AND 200 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/READ

HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

A PLETHORA OF DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS...NOAA AND AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL INDICATE
THAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...AND A 40 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME PROMINENT. THE LOWEST
PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON HAS BEEN 952 MB. DOPPLER RADAR
VELOCITIES IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AT 6500 FT HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS
114 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THAT SAME AREA MEASURED A PEAK WIND
VALUE OF 116 KT. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB HAVE RANGED
FROM 103-105 KT...AND A RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 90 KT
WAS MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AROUND 0140Z. ALL OF THIS
INFORMATION CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF
95 KT.

THE LARGE EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6
HOURS...BUT A GENERAL MOTION OF 315/10 SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE
PREFERRED DIRECTION OF TRAVEL. SHORT TERM EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE
THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND AND/OR THE UPPER-TEXAS
COAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...IKE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AND TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE RAPIDLY
TO THE NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A FAST APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM. BY 36-48 HOURS...IKE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.

IKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN
INTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...IS THE
EFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
WIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES
INDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH
...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A
REPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND
VARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY
MODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN
MORE THAN 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 13/0300Z 28.6N 94.4W 95 KT
12HR VT 13/1200Z 30.3N 95.4W 70 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 14/0000Z 33.2N 95.3W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/1200Z 36.6N 92.3W 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 15/0000Z 40.5N 86.0W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
72HR VT 16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE/BERG

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE APPROACHING GALVESTON ISLAND...LANDFALL EXPECTED IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM PORT ARANSAS TO
PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT
FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1200 AM CDT...0500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.5 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES...
55 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 80 MILES...130
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH
EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
IKE WILL BE VERY NEAR GALVESTON ISLAND AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. STRONGER WINDS...
AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR ON HIGH
RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ON
GALVESTON ISLAND AND REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE JUST OFFSHORE
GALVESTON ISLAND.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 1200 AM CDT POSITION...28.9 N...94.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2008

...EYE OF IKE MOVING ONTO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON....LANDFALL
EXPECTED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

AT 2 AM CDT...0700 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM PORT ARANSAS SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM CDT...0700Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST OR ABOUT 10 MILES...
15 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 60 MILES...100
KM...SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/HR. A
NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THIS MORNING...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF IKE SHOULD CROSS THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
GALVESTON IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...THEN MOVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE AND COULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST AS A CATEGORY
THREE...MAJOR HURRICANE...AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. STRONGER
WINDS...AS MUCH AS 30 MPH HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...COULD OCCUR
ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.

IKE REMAINS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES...445 KM.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN
FREEPORT AND SABINE PASS. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SEA RIM
STATE PARK TEXAS RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 76
MPH...122 KM/HR...AND A WIND GUST OF 99 MPH...159 KM/HR.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 953 MB...28.14 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 20 FEET...WITH NEAR 25 FEET
IN SOME AREAS...ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL. THE SURGE EXTENDS A GREATER THAN
USUAL DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
CYCLONE. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.

DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE IN THE EYE. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST
SURGE WILL LIKELY OCCUR NEAR OR JUST AFTER THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN AND WESTERN LOUISIANA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM CDT POSITION...29.2 N...94.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 400 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/RHOME