WPAC HAGUPIT (PAGASA: Nina): Typhoon - Discussion

[Chacor]

21/0830 UTC 17.8N 126.0E T4.0/4.0 HAGUPIT -- West Pacific Ocean

Of the three main centres warning on this storm so far only PAGASA considers this a typhoon.

[Typhoon Hunter]

It seems to be really getting it's act together now. CWB are issuing 3 hourly updates now and have issued sea warnings. They've upped the winds to 33m/s which would make this a typhoon according to the.

I expect most other agencies to upgrade this to a typhoon at 12z.

[Chacor]

Upgraded.

WTPQ21 RJTD 211200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0814 HAGUPIT (0814) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211200UTC 18.1N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 260NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 221200UTC 20.1N 121.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 231200UTC 21.4N 116.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 241200UTC 22.3N 110.5E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[HURAKAN]

Intense area of convection.

[Chacor]

Still looks pretty ragged.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0814 HAGUPIT (0814)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 18.9N 123.4E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 260NM
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 20.3N 118.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 240000UTC 21.0N 112.3E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 250000UTC 21.9N 107.1E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

[CrazyC83]

21/2057 UTC 18.9N 124.0E T4.5/4.5 HAGUPIT -- West Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

WTPN32 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 18W (HAGUPIT) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 19.1N 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 123.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.8N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 20.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 21.0N 115.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 21.4N 112.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 21.8N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.8N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 122.8E.
TYPHOON 18W (HAGUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z
IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
NNNN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

TPPN11 PGTW 220310

A. TYPHOON 18W (HAGUPIT)

B. 22/0230Z

C. 19.2N

D. 122.6E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (22/0230Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

36A/PBO LARGE EYE/ANMTN. DT BASED ON LG SURR SHADE WITH WMG
EYE TEMP. DT IS 5.0 BECAUSE NO EYE ADJ WAS APPLIED DUE TO LARGE,
RAGGED EYE. DBO DT. MET AND PT AGREE.

BRANDON

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0814 HAGUPIT (0814)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 19.4N 122.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 280NM
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 20.1N 116.7E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 240600UTC 21.1N 111.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 250600UTC 22.0N 106.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 220900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0814 HAGUPIT (0814)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220900UTC 19.4N 121.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 280NM
FORECAST
24HF 230900UTC 20.2N 116.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 240600UTC 21.1N 111.2E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 250600UTC 22.0N 106.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

Bulletin issued at 19:46 HKT 22/Sep/2008

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force.

At 8 p.m., Typhoon Hagupit was estimated to be about 760
kilometres east-southeast of Hong Kong (near 19.5 degrees
north 120.8 degrees east) and is forecast to move west or
west-northwest at about 30 kilometres per hour entering the
South China Sea, edging closer to the south China coastal
region.

[Chacor]

From JMA: T5.5:
TCNA21 RJTD 221200
CCAA 22120 47644 HAGUPIT(0814) 21195 11209 13344 255// 92812=

[HURAKAN]

Solid eyewall.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0814 HAGUPIT (0814)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 19.5N 120.9E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 280NM
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 20.3N 115.2E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 241200UTC 21.4N 110.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 251200UTC 22.2N 105.9E 210NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Chacor]

Bulletin issued at 21:45 HKT 22/Sep/2008

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force.

At 10 p.m., Typhoon Hagupit was estimated to be about 710
kilometres east-southeast of Hong Kong (near 19.5 degrees
north 120.3 degrees east) and is forecast to move west or
west-northwest at about 30 kilometres per hour entering the
South China Sea, edging closer to the south China coastal
region.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 221500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0814 HAGUPIT (0814)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221500UTC 19.7N 120.2E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 280NM
FORECAST
24HF 231500UTC 20.4N 114.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 241200UTC 21.4N 110.0E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 251200UTC 22.2N 105.9E 210NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Bulletin issued at 23:45 HKT 22/Sep/2008

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin

Here is the latest Tropical Cyclone Bulletin issued by the
Hong Kong Observatory.

The Standby Signal, No. 1 is in force.

At midnight, Typhoon Hagupit was estimated to be about 670
kilometres east-southeast of Hong Kong (near 19.7 degrees
north 120.0 degrees east) and is forecast to move west or
west-northwest at about 30 kilometres per hour entering the
South China Sea, edging closer to the south China coast.