WPAC JANGMI: Tropical Storm - Discussion

#22 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 24, 2008 2:31 pm

It seems to be organizing really well...might be a typhoon in the next 12-18 hours.

#23 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 24, 2008 5:38 pm

URPA12 PGUA 241946
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/19:46:10Z
B. 13 deg 29 min N
134 deg 37 min E
C. 700 mb 3037 m
D. 57 kt
E. 122 deg 39 nm
F. 187 deg 56 kt
G. 115 deg 54 nm
H. 992 mb
I. 7 C / 3047 m
J. 12 C / 3049 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF306 0247W JANGMI OB 06
MAX FL WIND 56 KT SE QUAD 19:30:10Z
RADAR PRESENTATION POOR BUT CONSISTENT WITH BROAD FLT LVL CENTER CIRCULATION.

#24 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Sep 24, 2008 7:53 pm

#25 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Sep 24, 2008 8:54 pm

URPA12 PGUA 242143
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/21:43:20Z
B. 13 deg 35 min N
134 deg 05 min E
C. 700 mb 3041 m
D. 54 kt
E. 166 deg 27 nm
F. 268 deg 66 kt
G. 174 deg 53 nm
H. 994 mb
I. 8 C / 3053 m
J. 13 C / 3048 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. OPEN WNW
M. C45
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF306 0247W JANGMI OB 17
MAX FL WIND 66 KT S QUAD 21:28:30Z
RADAR PRESENTATION IMPROVED, CONVECTION INCREASING. EYE FEATURE NOW ABOUT 80
PERCENT COMPLETE, OPEN TO THE WNW.

Looks like about a 60 kt storm.

Chacor · #26 Postby **Chacor** » Wed Sep 24, 2008 9:22 pm

WTPQ20 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0815 JANGMI (0815) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 13.5N 134.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 170NM
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 16.4N 130.0E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 270000UTC 18.6N 126.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 280000UTC 20.3N 122.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

Chacor · #27 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Sep 25, 2008 3:55 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 14.6N 132.5E FAIR
MOVE NW 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 17.0N 129.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 270600UTC 19.3N 125.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 280600UTC 21.0N 122.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

Chacor · #28 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Sep 25, 2008 5:31 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 14.7N 131.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 17.3N 128.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 270600UTC 19.3N 125.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 280600UTC 21.0N 122.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

Chacor · #29 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Sep 25, 2008 9:02 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 14.7N 131.2E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 17.7N 128.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 271200UTC 20.2N 125.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 281200UTC 21.2N 122.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

Amazing convection.

#30 Postby **Dave C** » Thu Sep 25, 2008 11:47 am

Looking at the latest discussion from JTWC I think we smell a potential super typhoon. Not good news for southern Taiwan.
http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php

#31 Postby **CrazyC83** » Thu Sep 25, 2008 12:07 pm

JTWC has it as a typhoon right now, although the JMA has yet to make it official.

#32 Postby **Dave C** » Thu Sep 25, 2008 2:31 pm

Jangmi starting to see :eek:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

Crostorm · #33 Postby **Crostorm** » Thu Sep 25, 2008 3:06 pm

Look good

RattleMan · #34 Postby **RattleMan** » Thu Sep 25, 2008 3:17 pm

JMA upgrades:

WTPQ20 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0815 JANGMI (0815) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 15.1N 130.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 200NM
FORECAST
24HF 261800UTC 17.9N 127.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 271800UTC 20.2N 124.1E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 281800UTC 21.4N 120.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

apocalypt-flyer · #35 Postby **apocalypt-flyer** » Thu Sep 25, 2008 4:41 pm

The JMA is being too modest there, I think.

#36 Postby **HenkL** » Thu Sep 25, 2008 4:59 pm

Plane AF306 is en route to the storm, so we'll see later.

#37 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Sep 25, 2008 8:30 pm

Beautiful system.

Chacor · #38 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Sep 25, 2008 8:44 pm

JMA already has this up to 80 kt.

WTPQ20 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 16.0N 130.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 19.5N 126.7E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 280000UTC 21.4N 123.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
72HF 290000UTC 22.4N 120.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

Chacor · #39 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Sep 26, 2008 3:01 am

WTPQ20 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 16.8N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 20.0N 125.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 280600UTC 21.6N 122.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 290600UTC 23.0N 119.8E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

#40 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 26, 2008 6:46 am

Another impressive typhoon.

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