WPAC JANGMI: Tropical Storm - Discussion

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

My strength thinking

130 knots
923 millibars

I expect strengthing to a cat5 or around 140 knots within the next 24 hours. Yellows on that IR will wrap around and the eye will warm.

[CrazyC83]

26/2030 UTC 19.1N 127.0E T6.5/6.5 JANGMI -- West Pacific Ocean

I agree with 130 kt for the current intensity. Well on its way to Category 5.

[RL3AO]

Classic WPac storm.

[Crostorm]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2008 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 19:14:41 N Lon : 126:52:20 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 905.9mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.8 7.2 7.2

[Crostorm]

[CrazyC83]

Mesovortices in the eye? Now that is a classic high-intensity storm.

[Squarethecircle]

Mesovortices in the eye? Now that is a classic high-intensity storm.

This image shows the feature more clearly:

[RattleMan]

If Jangmi strengthens 10 hPa, it will become tied with Rammasun and the recently BT-downgraded Hondo for the most intense tropical cyclone of 2008.

Also, latest image filename on NRL:

20080926.2330.gms6.x.ir1km_bw.19WJANGMI.135kts-922mb-195N-1265E.100pc.jpg

[HURAKAN]

SCARY!

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 19.6N 126.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 110NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 21.8N 123.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 290000UTC 23.5N 120.2E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 300000UTC 25.2N 119.5E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =

CMA are up to 60 m/s (116 kt).

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

I'd say that is a Cat 5 now. My guess is 145 kt.

[Chacor]

The C-130 will take off for its final WPac recon flight this year in 20 minutes.

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 SEP 2008 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 19:36:45 N Lon : 126:33:59 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 902.6mb/137.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
6.9 6.9 6.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.4mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 28 km

Center Temp : +9.8C Cloud Region Temp : -75.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[RL3AO]

The C-130 will take off for its final WPac recon flight this year in 20 minutes.

Not a bad way to end the year.

[HURAKAN]

[O Town]

What is the forecast track for this monster? Hopefully not Taiwan again.

[HURAKAN]

What is the forecast track for this monster? Hopefully not Taiwan again.

[O Town]

Wow, now the S end is going to get slammed too.
Sinlaku was not a sissy storm either.

[Chacor]

New track takes it over central Taiwan.

WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 19W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 19W (JANGMI) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 19.6N 126.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 126.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.3N 124.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.3N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.9N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 23.9N 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 27.9N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 126.1E.
SUPER TYPHOON 19W (JANGMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z,
271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.//
NNNN