CPAC: INVEST 96C - discussion

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 240744
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1000 PM HST TUE SEP 23 2008

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 775 MILES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF
INCREASED ORGANIZATION. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

$$

BIRCHARD

[HURAKAN]

773
WHXX01 KMIA 241252
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1252 UTC WED SEP 24 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO CPHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

CENTRAL PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (CP962008) 20080924 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080924 1200 080925 0000 080925 1200 080926 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 8.7N 159.7W 9.2N 161.6W 9.5N 162.7W 9.7N 163.7W
BAMD 8.7N 159.7W 9.2N 161.8W 9.7N 163.5W 10.1N 164.7W
BAMM 8.7N 159.7W 9.4N 161.7W 9.9N 163.2W 10.4N 164.2W
LBAR 8.7N 159.7W 9.2N 161.4W 9.4N 163.0W 9.9N 163.7W
SHIP 20KTS 27KTS 39KTS 52KTS
DSHP 20KTS 27KTS 39KTS 52KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080926 1200 080927 1200 080928 1200 080929 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.0N 164.7W 11.3N 166.6W 12.7N 167.2W 13.4N 168.2W
BAMD 10.5N 165.6W 11.8N 167.1W 14.2N 167.7W 16.8N 168.9W
BAMM 10.8N 165.0W 12.2N 166.3W 14.1N 166.5W 15.3N 167.4W
LBAR 10.0N 163.8W 12.2N 161.4W 13.1N 161.9W 16.9N 161.0W
SHIP 60KTS 72KTS 74KTS 71KTS
DSHP 60KTS 72KTS 74KTS 71KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 8.7N LONCUR = 159.7W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 7.6N LONM12 = 156.7W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 6.4N LONM24 = 152.2W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 241330
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED SEP 24 2008

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH.
ALTHOUGH ORGANIZATION HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS IT TRACKS TOWARD THE WEST BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

$$

BIRCHARD

[HurricaneRobert]

What is that little island called?

[Chacor]

Pretty sure it's Johnston, which was hit hard during Ioke.

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 250202
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED SEP 24 2008

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. A DISTURBANCE 900 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF
HAWAII IS SMALL AND WEAK AND IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP. COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST SOME DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FARTHER EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT SO FAR THERE IS NOTHING ORGANIZED IN THAT AREA.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

$$
DONALDSON

[Chacor]

ACPN50 PHFO 251357
TWOCP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU SEP 25 2008

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ABOUT 675 MILES SOUTH OF HONOLULU
WAS MOVING WEST NEAR 15 MILES AN HOUR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

$$

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Looks very nicely organized.

[cycloneye]

96C is gone.

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