WPAC MEKKHALA: Severe Tropical Storm - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

25/2030 UTC 15.0N 116.3E T1.0/1.0 98W -- West Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N
116.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 116.4E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HAINAN. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING A REGION
OF INCREASED LOW LEVEL TURNING, INDICATIVE OF CONSOLIDATION OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 260535Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE
EVEN HINTS AT WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING FORMING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
INCREASED IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTION BUILDING CLOSER TO THE LLCC,
SUPPORTING A 15 TO 20 KNOT SYSTEM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ON THE OTHER
HAND, REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR, THOUGH IT HAS SLACKENED NEAR THE
LLCC. EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT REMAINS THE SOLE EXHAUST MECHANISM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[HurricaneRobert]

This one has been eaten alive by Jangmi.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 15N 113E WEST SLOWLY.

WTPN21 PGTW 280630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2N 112.8E TO 18.0N 110.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.7N 112.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.1E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 112.6E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-
DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION IS DISPLACED
WEST OF THE CENTER WITH SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING NORTH OF THE
CENTER. A 271201Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED A LIGHT CORE OF WINDS (10-15
KNOTS) SURROUNDED BY STRONGER WINDS (20-25 KNOTS). RECENT NEARBY SUR-
FACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SLP NEAR 1000 MB WITH 15-22 KNOTS WINDS. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING SLIGHTLY AS STY 19W
WEAKENS ALLOWING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO BE LESS OF A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WILLCONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 26 HOURS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVING UPPER-
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AND PRE-EXISTING WELL DEFINED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 290630Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

28/0830 UTC 15.3N 113.2E T2.0/2.0 98W -- West Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 14.9N 112.1E POOR
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 16.3N 111.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RattleMan]

206
WTPN32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280621Z SEP 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 16.1N 111.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 111.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.8N 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.8N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.7N 108.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 19.1N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 19.3N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 111.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 20W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHEAST
OF HAINAN ISLAND, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE WITH A MORE DEFINED, TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT IMAGERY AND SURFACE WIND DATA
STILL DEPICT A BROAD LLCC AND THE CURRENT LLCC WAS OBSERVED ROTATING
CYCLONICALLY (AND QUICKLY) AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD
CIRCULATION. THEREFORE, THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MOTION WITH QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION SUPPORTED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
XISHA DAO INDICATE 15-20 KNOT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND
SLP NEAR 997 MB. AFTER TAU 36, THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM PRODUCING A WESTWARD TRACK
TOWARD HAINAN AND VIETNAM. TD 20W IS NOT FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THEN LAND
INTERACTION NEAR TAU 36. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF
A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 280621Z SEP 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 280630). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
281800Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 290300Z, 290900Z, 291500Z
AND 292100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (JANGMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

[Chacor]

Upgraded.

WTJP22 RJTD 290000
WARNING 290000.
WARNING VALID 300000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0816 MEKKHALA (0816) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
992 HPA
AT 16.4N 111.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 18.4N 110.1E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 19.4N 107.4E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 19.8N 105.1E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 290600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0816 MEKKHALA (0816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290600UTC 16.6N 110.1E FAIR
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 300600UTC 17.4N 106.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 010600UTC 17.1N 104.0E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Quickscat around 8 hours ago shown some 45-50 knot flags. That with a increase in organizion, I would put the current winds near 55 knots. I expect this to become a typhoon within the next 12-18 hours.

[Chacor]

JMA is much more aggressive (55kt forecast) than JTWC (40 kt peak) on this storm.

WTPN32 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 16.6N 110.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 110.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 17.5N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 18.3N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 18.7N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 19.0N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 19.7N 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
290900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 109.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 20W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM EAST OF
HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (JANGMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) AND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

[HURAKAN]

[apocalypt-flyer]

Quickscat around 8 hours ago shown some 45-50 knot flags. That with a increase in organizion, I would put the current winds near 55 knots. I expect this to become a typhoon within the next 12-18 hours.

Nah, I doubt this will make it to TY status before landfall. STS and we're talking but not much more than that.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 291200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0816 MEKKHALA (0816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291200UTC 17.1N 109.4E FAIR
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 301200UTC 18.1N 106.4E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 011200UTC 17.8N 103.3E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[HURAKAN]

Pouring in Vietnam.

[Chacor]

WTPQ21 RJTD 291800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0816 MEKKHALA (0816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 291800UTC 17.3N 108.0E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 301800UTC 17.9N 105.2E 70NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 011800UTC 17.7N 103.1E 110NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[CrazyC83]

Really strong convection. Looks like about 55-60 kt.

[apocalypt-flyer]

Yuck, the convection is REALLY nasty. This might become very ugly for Vietnam.