ATL NANA: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Sanibel]

Appears to be slowing for a turn more up into the Atlantic.

[wxman57]

Looks unimpressive, and the general cloud mass has a pretty good northward component over the past 48 hours. The trof nera/over the eastern Caribbean should carry this disturbance northward east of the Caribbean, probably without developing.

[Derek Ortt]

may develop, but should pass more than 1000km east of Bermuda

[cycloneye]

980
ABNT20 KNHC 102345
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

SHOWER ACTIVITY NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. WHILE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THIS AREA...
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

If the 00:00 UTC Best Track is correct,this is not going to be a Eastern Caribbean problem.Its moving WNW to NW at 310 degrees.

AL, 97, 2008101100, , BEST, 0, 110N, 363W, 25, 1007, DB,

[cycloneye]

[bob rulz]

How often to storms form this far east in October?

[Rainband]

Fish

[Cyclenall]

How often to storms form this far east in October?

That's what I'm trying to figure out. I can't remember a storm being that far east in October.

[TheEuropean]

From last nite:

11/0545 UTC 11.1N 36.7W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

I think it will take a wile to organize, it's a big system now.

[Chacor]

[cycloneye]

625
ABNT20 KNHC 111149
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY
BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

It's a large system but I like its chances.

[cycloneye]

12:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 97, 2008101112, , BEST, 0, 120N, 373W, 25, 1007

[cycloneye]

[HURAKAN]

It almost looks like we have two systems. The big brother to the right and the little brother to the left.

[Blown Away]

It almost looks like we have two systems. The big brother to the right and the little brother to the left.

Your right, in the wide view you can clearly see the clouds rotating around an area near 10N/43W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

[Gustywind]

It almost looks like we have two systems. The big brother to the right and the little brother to the left.

Your right, in the wide view you can clearly see the clouds rotating around an area near 10N/43W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html

Yeah, but don't like that, 10 N 43w?.. Hummm pretty low in lattitude hope it fizzled quickly or if it develops races NW...East carib has sufficient troubles with water due to actives twaves it won't be a good surprise to this churn near us during the last couple of days....

[Derek Ortt]

dont need to worry about this in the islands... not unless all models butchered the forecast of a very deep trough

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 111759
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. THE ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
CONCENTRATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS INCREASED OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA