ATL NANA: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Gustywind]

dont need to worry about this in the islands... not unless all models butchered the forecast of a very deep trough

Models or not guy, something to watch in this period, go fishing and no more...I remembered José in 1999, José takes awhile to develop, but the models have been anticipated two LOWS in the same area, and the furthest west develops and we saw José near us! So glad to see that your're a bit optimistic about " not unless all models butchered the forecast of a very deep trough" it's a fact ...but for us in the islands i advice all carib islanders to just keep an eye, but keep it for the moment, fish or not, we have to wait and see what could happen....

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1009 MB
SFC LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N37W. THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS SOME BANDING FEATURES WITH MODERATE CONVECTION MAINLY
WITHIN 160 NM NW QUADRANT.

[Sanibel]

Almost looks like two Lows. One at 42W and the bigger main one to the ENE.

[wxman57]

Convection has decreased. Doesn't look very impressive. Chances are it won't develop.

[TheEuropean]

From yesterday evening:

11/2345 UTC 14.9N 35.4W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

No developmentat this time.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 17N37W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 32W-36W.
IN FACT...SATELLITE AND QUIK-SCAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A SURFACE
TROUGH WITH THREE EMBEDDED LOW CENTERS MOVING W 10 KT. A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

[Gustywind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
12/0545 UTC 16.3N 36.2W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic Ocean

[HURAKAN]

Looking more impressive this morning.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BETTER ORGANIZED AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FORMATION...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE....IS
CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[HURAKAN]

Best Track 12z:

AL, 97, 2008101212, , BEST, 0, 162N, 371W, 30, 1006

[Crostorm]

12/1145 UTC 16.2N 36.1W T1.5/1.5 97L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[HURAKAN]

[Weatherfreak00]

Look to have a LLC....very, very close if not at TD status...I wonder if they may just classify this before it gets killed by shear.

[CrazyC83]

Looking at QuikSCAT, this should be TS Nana if it develops an LLC with 40-45 kt winds...

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES WELL-ORGANIZED. ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD BE INITIATED ANY TIME ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER
OPEN WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOW MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND IF NECESSARY...A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

Tropical Storm Nana at 5 pm most likely.

[Cyclone1]

Wow... wasn't expecting to see that when I logged on.

[RL3AO]

AL, 97, 2008101218, , BEST, 0, 164N, 377W, 30, 1005, DB

Lets see if they change it before 5.

[CrazyC83]

30 kt? Regardless of classification, QuikSCAT supports at least 40 kt.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 121700Z OCT 08//
WTNT01 KNGU 121700
UNCLAS //N03146//
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN NORFOLK VA//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.2N 37.2W TO
18.5N 39.5W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES
NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED ROUGHLY
1600NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER WARM SEA WATER TEMPERATURES.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, OR
CANCELLED BY 131700Z OCT 2008.//