ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[Sanibel]

My alarm never went off. Missed pass of Anguilla. No reports from them so power must have went off.

Curious about how 132KTFL VDM translated to winds?

Strange how once Omar rose above the Antilles and into the Atlantic the west face on the shear blasted it open. Think we had a serious venting cause the intensification.

Looking at HURAKAN's IR loop I think Anguilla got some strong winds close to the eye.

[Gustywind]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/se1ir.html
That's it : Numerous strong showers are racing near Guadeloupe right now, thunder is rumbling...

[Thunder44]

Avila said in the 5am discussion that peak intensity for Omar was estimated at 115kts. That should make Omar a Cat 4. Of course, it's weaker now.

[Gustywind]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 161044 RRA
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
644 AM AST THU OCT 16 2008

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG TROUGH CONTINUES OVER
HISPANIOLA ORIENTED NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST. IT WILL LEAVE A SMALL LOW
ON FRIDAY WHEN IT RAPIDLY PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
DISSIPATES. THE LOW WILL ALSO MOVE NORTHEAST AND LEAVE THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...TROUGHING OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL RETREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS... MAJOR HURRICANE OMAR WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH FROM A 5 AM POSITION OF 19.1 NORTH 63.2 WEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FILL IN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT LEAVING A WEAK RIDGE NORTH
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS UNTIL MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HURRICANE OMAR PICKED UP AND LEFT WITH INCREDIBLE
SPEED...ENDING MOST OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS/TROPICAL STORM ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE 5 AM AST. TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR IN SAN JUAN
SHOWED BANDS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND
STREAMING OVER PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES. IT IS EXPECTED
THAT SAINT THOMAS...SAINT JOHN AND SAINT CROIX WILL RECEIVE SOME
OF THIS RAIN TODAY ALSO. AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT SO FLOODING
IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED.

OMAR WILL BE WELL OUT OF THE PICTURE BY FRIDAY...BUT THE LATEST
MODELS START BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH LEFT BEHIND BY OMAR AND A
TRAILING RAIN BAND. THIS MOISTURE MOVES SOUTHEAST DURING THE
DAY...BUT RETURNS AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER CONDITIONS REMAIN
UNREMARKABLE WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE OMAR WILL AFFECT
TISX...TKPK...TJSJ AND TJPS THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE MOISTURE LEFT BY THE HURRICANE WILL
COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. MOUNTAIN TOP
OBSCURATIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF
PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 16Z-22Z WITH THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...HURRICANE OMAR WILL LEAVE SEAS IN THE 14 TO 18 FOOT
RANGE IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT SEAS
WILL RAPIDLY SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY. SEAS SHOULD RETURN BELOW
ADVISORY STAGE SATURDAY AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE AGAIN THIS WEEK.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...PUERTO RICO ESCAPED MAJOR FLOODING WHEN DRIER AIR
PULLED AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF OMAR AND MOVED IN OVER PUERTO
RICO. NEVERTHELESS PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL NEAR TWO INCHES AND
THIS COULD PROVOKE MORE SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR
TODAY. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BE HEAVY. THE NAM SHOWED
CONSIDERABLE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF PUERTO RICO
AS SEA BREEZES SET UP UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FLOODING HAS NOT
BEEN REPORTED IN SAINT CROIX BUT ALMOST 3 INCHES FELL IN THE 6
HOURS ENDING AT 2 AM. REPORTS WILL LIKELY COME LATER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 76 87 77 / 70 10 10 0
STT 85 75 85 76 / 90 10 20 0

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...SCA...AMZ710-712-715-725-732-741-742.

VI...SCA...AMZ710-715-725-722-732.

&&

$$

71/12/

[Sanibel]

Can't determine how close Omar came to Anguilla but I think it was close enough for a hard hit with that category 4 core. We'll have stories from Jimsot whenever he gets his power back.

[HURAKAN]

Avila said in the 5am discussion that peak intensity for Omar was estimated at 115kts. That should make Omar a Cat 4. Of course, it's weaker now.

Yep

HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN PENETRATING THE EYE OF
OMAR AND MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 959 MB AND TWO SPOT WINDS OF 132
AND 124 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE CREW COULD NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE
EYEWALL DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH TURBULENCE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
OSCILLATED BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT
TIME. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT OMAR REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS EARLIER.

[Chacor]

Doesn't look even 100 kts right now.

[HURAKAN]

Repeating the 800 am AST position...20.3 N...62.4 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 29 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph.
Minimum central pressure...967 mb.

[Sanibel]

If you set the trop point box and run this it shows the eye missed Anguilla by, I guess, 25-30 miles or so. Good hard side pass. I can't guess what the winds were there but they had to be at least 90mph conservative:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161203
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE OMAR IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OMAR AT
16/0900 UTC IS NEAR 20.3N 62.4W OR ABOUT 140 NM...260 KM...
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 100 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC
AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
15N63W 18N61W 20N59W...FROM 18.5N TO 20N BETWEEN 62W AND
63W...AND WITHIN 15 NM TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 17N60W 14N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W.

[HurricaneRobert]

That is the ugliest category 3 hurricane. It cannot be that strong.

[jinftl]

From NHC 5am Discussion...

DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO
INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF OMAR WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS CROSSED THE
AREA OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN ST. MAARTEN AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...OR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE.

[wxman57]

Here are some nice HRD wind analysis graphics for when Omar's center was closest to St. Croix:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour02.png

And 3 hours later:
ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/2 ... tour02.png

It looks like the eyewall missed St. Croix. TS winds just made it west of the BVI. San Juan reported a max wind of 14 kts. I wonder why their radar went down?

[Gustywind]

Updates from the Islands -
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/anguilla.shtml
- - Anguilla - -
| - WE MADE IT...
From: "Steve Donahue" <steve at anguilla-weather.com>
Date: Thu, 16 Oct 2008 07:28:08 -0400

… but it wasn’t fun. Power has been out since about 1:30 AM (still out). Very little rain after midnight, but lottsa wind – south, SW then west. Max gust – 60 knots – not too bad. Lots of trees down in the yard, but no serious damage to the house. However, got a call at 6:30 – my 34’ Hunter is on the beach at Sandy Ground. Must have held all night but when the wind and swells came from the west (right into Sandy Ground), that was it. Understand there are many boats on the beach, including some cargo boats. At least I’m not on the rocks.



Just updated the website below, so you can see data from last night. Going off gen power shortly.



Off to check the boat and see what’s happened on the island. Later.



Cheers,



Steve Donahue

Anguilla, AI2640, B.W.I.

US Phone – 410-505-8661

Anguilla Phone – 264-497-8177

Websites – http://www.anguilla-weather.com & http://www.anguilla-diving.com

[wxman57]

Omar looks more like a squall line than a hurricane now. Certainly doesn't have 115 mph winds. It may not be around for another 24 hours at the rate it's being torn apart.

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

Nevis Report after Omar

* From: "Harry Hallstrom" <hwh888 at gmail.com>
* Date: Thu, 16 Oct 2008 08:26:21 -0400

Looks like things are getting back to normal. The Main road is passable around island. Reports that Charlestown was closed due to storm surge.
Heard Four Seasons has a lot of storm surge damage & will take months to repair. Sea Bridge & Sea Hustler broke from their moorings & washed ashore.
Record almost 2.5" of rain. Storm hit Nevis about 2am with heavy winds till about 4am.


Thanks,

Harry


Greetings from Nevis, West Indies
"Queen of the Caribbean"

alt email: hwh888 at sisterisles.kn

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/nevis.shtml

[expat2carib]

I slept out the storm here in Simpson Bay on Sint Maarten.

I'm in the Travel Inn just on the bay. The hotel room was boarded and I didn't have a radio so I could only judge from the sounds. Electricity never went out but we lost the TV signal.

It's scary when you only can judge your situation from sound perception.

The locals are tough here. The bar/restaurant downstairs is already open and the lady is already making bagel dough

Most ships did OK. I can only see some damage on billboards blown away. Roads are mostly open and the airport is already open again.

Any news from St. Croix?

[Gustywind]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
We're good of another round of showers and tstorms during the next couple of hours, convection is still present in Omar's tail, swell is always dangerous in the carib coast, waves are increasing ....

[wxman57]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
We're good of another round of showers and tstorms during the next couple of hours, convection is still present in Omar's tail, swell is always dangerous in the carib coast, waves are increasing ....

That looks more like a squall line now. It's a line of storms 750 miles long extending from 22N/58W all the way to Venezuela. Omar's core is getting to be squall-free now. It appears to be rapidly merging with the frontal boundary.