ATL OMAR: Remnant Low - Discussion

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121049
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
THIS WAVE HAS PUSHED TO THE W OF A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED
IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N64W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
QUIK-SCAT DEPICTS COUNTERCLOCKWISE CURVATURE ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN
64W-66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO INLAND OVER
VENEZUELA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 67W-70W.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
APPEARS TO BETTER ORGANIZED AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FORMATION...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE....IS
CENTERED ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SYSTEM IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Sanibel]

Similar track to Gus while it was in the Caribbean, except too late in the season to really convect.

Models suggest it hits a trough near Hispaniola and heads out to sea.

[cycloneye]

Recon to check it out tommorow afternoon (If Necessary)

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SUN 12 OCTOBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z OCTOBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-134

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 70
A. 13/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 13/1500Z
D. 15.5N 70.0W
E. 13/1900Z TO 14/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6 HRLY FIXES ON SYSTEM
AT 14/1800Z NEAR 16.5N AND 71.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[dixiebreeze]

Nice burst of convection:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at the visible, just West of that convection is where the axis of turning, from South to Northeast, seems most pronounced. I see no signs of a closed circulation at this point, and without benefit of surface obs, just cloud motion, 'center' seems near 14.5ºN and 67.5ºW

[Sanibel]

I had 14.8N-64.2W earlier.

[Ed Mahmoud]

West winds at BonAire, but I don't know enough about that part of the world to know if that is mesoscale or local/microscale.

[captain east]

Nice blob of convection right now...

[Ed Mahmoud]

Clearly battling shear, but looks like it is at least holding its own.

98L water vapor floater loop

[Weatherfreak00]

Looking VERY strong right now...wouldn't be surprised if this became the next storm if it can combat shear. Might be developing a LLC right now.

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121733
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES EAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES WELL-ORGANIZED. ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM COULD BE INITIATED ANY TIME ALTHOUGH
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER
OPEN WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO
RICO IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOW MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND IF NECESSARY...A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS TO
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at the visible, just West of that convection is where the axis of turning, from South to Northeast, seems most pronounced. I see no signs of a closed circulation at this point, and without benefit of surface obs, just cloud motion, 'center' seems near 14.5ºN and 67.5ºW

More staring at visible, it is close to having a closed low level (not saying surface) circulation just West of convection, near 14.8ºN and 67.7ºW.

Looks like convection is slowly getting closer. Still sheared, but I think, like Texas, against a more talented Oklahoma, it will battle uphill against the odds. To claim the AP #1 ranking in the nation.


OK, maybe I shouldn't anthropomorphize thunderstorm clusters. On a little football high now.

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2008101218, , BEST, 0, 151N, 677W, 25, 1006, DB

[Ed Mahmoud]

Based on pressure falls to 1006 mb and a wind shift to a Westerly component (SSW to SW), JB has updated his PPV page to say he thinks a TD is forming.




Unlike 97L, this will have a hard time missing land if it develops...

[jinftl]

Development or not, this could be another major rain event for Hispanola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.

Today's discussion on 98L from Dr. Jeff Masters:

Wind shear is expected to fall to the moderate 15-20 knot range the next three days, and waters will remain warm, 29°C. This should allow 98L to slowly organize and approach tropical depression status two to three days from now. The UKMET, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models all indicate the 98L will come close to developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, when it is expected to be near or over Hispaniola or Puerto Rico. Residents of those islands, as well as the Virgin Islands, are likely to receive heavy rains of 4-8 inches, with isolated amounts of 12 inches, during the period Tuesday through Thursday.

An upper-level low pressure system is expected to separate from the jet stream and park itself to the north of Puerto Rico by Tuesday. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low should draw 98L to the north across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola by Thursday.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1121&tstamp=200810

[cycloneye]

Look at this wall of water approaching Puerto Rico.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wasn't there talk of Puerto Rico and vicinity being too dry back in June?


I see that isn't an issue anymore.

[cycloneye]

Wasn't there talk of Puerto Rico and vicinity being too dry back in June?


I see that isn't an issue anymore.

At June,we were almost at the point of rationing water.But how things change,In mid Septembert we had the historic massive floods and now we may have if not that same amount,maybe more than that.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Wasn't there talk of Puerto Rico and vicinity being too dry back in June?


I see that isn't an issue anymore.

At June,we were almost at the point of rationing water.But how things change,In mid Septembert we had the historic massive floods and now we may have if not that same amount,maybe more than that.

If it wasn't for tropical cyclones this Summer, Southeast Texas would be an arid wasteland right now. September was above normal in rainfall, but that was all Ike, with a little help from a front the following day.