ATL OMAR: Models

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Gustywind
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 15 - Models

#21 Postby Gustywind » Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:Maybe a little glimpse of good news from GFDL for Puerto Rico,the VI and the Northern Leewards as its 18z run tracks thru the extreme Eastern Hispanola and Mona Channel.

WHXX04 KWBC 132326
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN 15L

INITIAL TIME 18Z OCT 13

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.5 70.0 265./ 4.1
6 14.6 70.3 290./ 2.8
12 14.3 70.7 239./ 4.3
18 14.2 70.7 196./ 1.8
24 14.2 70.7 24./ 1.0
30 14.2 70.6 124./ .3
36 14.5 70.2 53./ 4.8
42 15.1 69.8 39./ 7.4
48 15.6 69.4 42./ 5.9
54 16.3 68.6 44./10.5
60 17.6 68.5 8./12.7
66 18.6 68.4 1./10.3
72 19.7 68.5 358./10.8
78 20.6 68.6 353./ 9.5
84 21.7 68.8 348./10.8
90 22.7 69.0 352./ 9.9
96 23.7 69.0 358./10.4
102 24.8 68.6 19./11.3
108 26.0 68.1 25./13.0
114 27.5 67.1 33./17.3
120 29.4 65.5 41./23.4
126 31.5 63.2 46./29.1


18z GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Yeah agree Cycloneye, hope that :D (should it verifies too :cheesy: ) :( :roll:
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Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 15 - Models

#22 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 13, 2008 7:57 pm

Image
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL: Tropical Depression 15 - Models

#23 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:28 am

0Z GFDL- Cat 1 for Puerto Rico

Image

4 to 8 inch rain storm totals seem common

Image
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#24 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Oct 14, 2008 7:13 am

06Z: Virgin Islands

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Re: ATL OMAR: Models

#25 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:38 pm

Look at how tightly clustered are the models.

Image
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Re: ATL OMAR: Models

#26 Postby somethingfunny » Tue Oct 14, 2008 2:35 pm

None of the models accurately forecasted Omar's current SE drift, so that tight cluster might need to be shifted east somewhat....one good thing about the current motion is it appears Haiti will finally be spared a hit. It seems like Haiti's had a magnet attracting any tropical cyclone within 300 miles this year.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Models

#27 Postby Gustywind » Tue Oct 14, 2008 2:42 pm

somethingfunny wrote:None of the models accurately forecasted Omar's current SE drift, so that tight cluster might need to be shifted east somewhat....one good thing about the current motion is it appears Haiti will finally be spared a hit. It seems like Haiti's had a magnet attracting any tropical cyclone within 300 miles this year.

Agree but the non treath of Haiti means whereas another threat for another other island...
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Re: ATL OMAR: Models

#28 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2008 7:04 pm

18z GFDL closest position to Puerto Rico.

Image

18z HWRF is a little more closer to Puerto Rico.

Image
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Re: ATL OMAR: Models

#29 Postby Sanibel » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:01 pm

HWRF slams Virgin Islands but curiously has the winds too low for a normally aggressive model on winds.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Models

#30 Postby canetracker » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:39 pm

Last edited by canetracker on Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Ed Mahmoud

Re: ATL OMAR: Models

#31 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:45 pm




A bit too close to Puerto Rico for comfort...
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Re: ATL OMAR: Models

#32 Postby canetracker » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:47 pm

GFS @ 30 hr
Image

850 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_85v_030l.gif

I agree this is close to PR and the adjacent islands. If Omar keeps intensifying his effects could be wide spread.
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Re: ATL OMAR: Models

#33 Postby Sanibel » Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:44 am

NHC - Left shift over the Virgins!


Image
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