ATL SIXTEEN: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[canetracker]

Thanks for the clarification Chacor!

[TheEuropean]

15/0545 UTC 15.8N 83.8W T1.5/1.5 16L -- Atlantic Ocean

Convection is popping up near the coast of northern Nicaragua now.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

H3VR - MARITIME-ship
Wednesday Oct. 15 - 6:00 UTC
Air Temperature: 77°F
Dewpoint: 69°F
Wind: E at 28 mph
Pressure: 1007 mb
Weather: Rain
Wave Height: 5 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 86°F

This ship report was to the north of the circulation. Winds could be stronger in the convection.

[HURAKAN]

Buoy 42056



This buoy is far to the north of TD 16 and has reported sustained winds of 27 knots.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

Appears to be mostly stationary.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Looks like it is moving WSW along Central America, but the convection may be tricking me.

[Sanibel]

A lot of tropical action today.

My look says the center is overland in the corner of Nicaragua/Honduras but the mid-level is trying to stay overwater in the burst to the east. Not sure what the future track will be, but if that center dives SW into Honduras we should see the convection taper and the storm fizzle.

Anyone who lives in south Florida can just step outside and see the dry air and blue sky of the HIGH that is forcing TD16 south.

[boca]

It looks to me that td 16 is inland and is moving west across Cental America. I think it will fizzle out. The convection off the coast of Nicaragua seems to be warming because the center is inland now.

[HURAKAN]

Buoy 42056:

42056 B 1250 19.87 -85.06 237 348 80 25.3 33.0

25 knots and it's far to the north.

[HURAKAN]

[Annie Oakley]

Hopefully not a stupid question. If 16 is already a tropical storm why is it not named? Forgive me for mistaking the category ....TD or TS?

[HURAKAN]

It's a tropical depression, not a tropical storm. Therefore, it's not named.

[Annie Oakley]

Just saw it is a depression.I am forgetting my weather terms and such-I feel for those in its path...hang on brothers and sisters!

[Blown Away]

I know it's likely not going to happen, but it does appear there is a second circulation down in the area of 14N/82W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

There is clearly a very broad area of low pressure, but I can't see a well-defined LLC. One could develop at any time but for that you need persistent convection, which this system has not been able to keep. I personally give it a low chance to become a tropical storm but I have been surprised before!

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[Ed Mahmoud]

Mssrs. Landsea and Stewart left the word 'reliable' out of the following sentence (between 'of' and 'the', as the Canadian blasts Tampa Bay in 8 days with 16L/future Paloma...

ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE
MODELS CALL FOR DISSIPATION OF THE DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA
WITHIN FOUR DAYS.

Note also the Canadian is predicting winter precip just inland from the coast in New England.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Storm Gamma



Gamma is an example of systems interacting with land but it was able to develop a well-defined LLC because of the persistent convection.

[Annie Oakley]

I wish I had a poster of Gamma now!
Fierce and ragged-just a wild thing! Don't even know how Gamma came into the picture but I love it lol!

[HURAKAN]

It's looking more like a trough of low pressure than an organized area of low pressure.