ATL SIXTEEN: Tropical Depression - Discussion

[HURAKAN]

Link: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... &TYPE=ssmi

And they continue to pop!!

BEGIN
NHC
invest_al992008.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200810131331
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 99, 2008, DB, O, 2008101312, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL992008
AL, 99, 2008101212, , BEST, 0, 104N, 824W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008101218, , BEST, 0, 112N, 823W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008101300, , BEST, 0, 120N, 822W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008101306, , BEST, 0, 127N, 822W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2008101312, , BEST, 0, 134N, 821W, 25, 1006, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 140, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[punkyg]

Is this the area in the western carribean?

[HURAKAN]

Is this the area in the western carribean?

You're correct!

[HURAKAN]

How many times do we see two disturbances in the Caribbean at the same time? Not many.

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 25 knots - 1006 mb

[Vortex]

Nogaps might be on to something...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008101306

[CrazyC83]

Not colored on the NHC page.

[HURAKAN]

Not colored on the NHC page.

Very likely at 2 PM.

[cycloneye]

Not colored on the NHC page.

Because it was tagged after the 8 AM TWO.

[tolakram]

I think the quickscat pass might be the reason it got tagged.

[HURAKAN]

I think know it already has such an impressive circulation. Another to watch.

[HURAKAN]

837
WONT41 KNHC 131516
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA...AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...
AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA...
HONDURAS...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/AVILA

[gatorcane]

here we go....this invest will need close watching as well as 98L as it moves into the NW Caribbean SEa.

[HURAKAN]

Floater 99L:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float3.html

It's wrongly placed over TD 15 but the error should be fixed shorty.

Update: Now changed back to "Not Active."

[gatorcane]

eyes are opening here in Southern Florida as 99L gets going and NHC indicates it is going to move into the NW Caribbean sea.

and its October....

[cycloneye]

[Sanibel]

BAMs do a Marco and scoot 99L under the cut-off LOW steering feature affecting 98L and towards Central America. I'm not sure about Florida. Our infamous CLP model is right to Sanibel on a doomsday track over prime SST's. I put it and NAM in the same class.


I'm absolutely awed and amazed how the models pulled this one out of thin air and there it is materializing.

MJO juice!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I have a question. I am worried. Is 99L going to get
pulled north and a cold front is supposed to
arrive in 5 days near Florida...could this be a long
range threat to Florida? It is in a similar location
to Category 5 Wilma and the 1921 Category 3 Major that devastated Tampa Bay, and around where Hurricane Mitch
Category 5 formed.

Obviously Central America has to watch this the closest,
but I am voicing my concern because of living in Florida
and climatology of October storms hitting Florida and the Cold
Front moving into the Gulf in 5 days near Florida...

[gatorcane]

remember I predicted this spike in activity a about a week or so ago...and it is materializing as I expected. MJO is a large reason why.

EPAc is quieting down now as expected..

[CrazyC83]

I have a REALLY bad feeling about this one...