WPAC: BAVI - Tropical Storm: Discussion

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

17/2157 UTC 20.7N 151.2E T1.5/1.5 IN2 -- West Pacific Ocean

Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/mtsatfloat2.html

[HURAKAN]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.0N 151.0E,
APPROXIMATELY 565 NM NORTHEAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HAS RECENTLY FORMED BENEATH AN EXPANSIVE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION
THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH MORE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING. IN ADDITION, A 142334Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES; THOUGH, A 171921Z
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A POORLY DEFINED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION
THAT HAS YET TO CLOSE OFF IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE LACK
OF EQUATORWARD WESTERLIES. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS ALSO HELPED TO
INCITE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SHOULD RAPIDLY DEGRADE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS AND LIMIT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Chacor]

This is a tropical depression.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 21N 152E NW 10 KT.

[Crostorm]

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 21.0N
151.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 150.8E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A
SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ALSO EVIDENT IN AN 180325Z
AMSU-B PASS. THE LLCC LIES UNDER THE AXIS OF A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. INCREASING INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN TO THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE THIS DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO
18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
BASED ON FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[Chacor]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1010 HPA AT 23N 151E NNW 10 KT.

[Chacor]

[HURAKAN]

18/0830 UTC 22.1N 150.6E T2.0/2.0 99W -- West Pacific Ocean

[HURAKAN]

WTPN21 PGTW 181100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.7N 150.6E TO 27.7N 148.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 180600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.9N 150.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.8N
150.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 150.5E, APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER OF A SMALL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 180746Z WINDSAT PASS.
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND STRONG PERIPHERAL WINDS ARE LOCATED ON THE
POLEWARD SIDE OF THE LLCC, WITH WEAKER 10-15 KNOT WESTERLIES WINDS
CLOSING OFF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LLCC LIES
BENEATH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE, IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH ARE ENHANCING THIS OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE
GOOD LOW-LEVEL SIGNATURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 191100Z.//
NNNN

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA
AT 23.0N 149.8E WESTSOUTHWEST OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST 12
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

27th warned TD of the season.

[HURAKAN]

[Crostorm]

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181051Z OCT 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 24.3N 148.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 148.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 27.0N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 30.0N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 33.7N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 37.5N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 148.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING TROPICAL STORM IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. A 181534 AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP FROM THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS, AND AN OLDER,
PARTIAL 180747Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN
TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, AND WILL THEN RECURVE AND
ACCELERATE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE STORM WILL
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION JUST BEYOND TAU 24 WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR REMAINING A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 181051Z OCT 08
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 181100) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181051Z OCT 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 24.3N 148.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 148.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 27.0N 148.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 30.0N 149.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 33.7N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 37.5N 156.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0N 148.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING TROPICAL STORM IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE. A 181534 AMSRE
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP FROM THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS, AND AN OLDER,
PARTIAL 180747Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE. POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BEGUN
TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM PRIOR TO UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12, AND WILL THEN RECURVE AND
ACCELERATE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE STORM WILL
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION JUST BEYOND TAU 24 WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR REMAINING A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS WARNING
SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 181051Z OCT 08
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 181100) MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.//

[HURAKAN]

18/2030 UTC 24.7N 148.4E T3.0/3.0 23W -- West Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 24.8N 148.4E POOR
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 1006HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 30.9N 149.1E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[Crostorm]

[Chacor]

Heh, "TWENTYTHREE" is too long to display on NRL and their name for it is now TWENTYTHRE...

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 18 OCT 2008 Time : 231500 UTC
Lat : 25:26:12 N Lon : 148:29:06 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 991.0mb/ 45.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.0 3.4 3.4

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -61.4C Cloud Region Temp : -47.1C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.71 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Crostorm]

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHRE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 25.2N 148.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 148.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 28.1N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 31.6N 150.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 35.4N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 39.2N 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 25.9N 148.1E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHICHIJIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
190000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z
AND 200300Z.//
NNNN