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North Indian Ocean are becoming more active, and it seems that IMD has progressed a lot.
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DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 24- 10- 2008.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS issued at 0600 utc (.)
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL OFF ANDHRA PRADESH COAST. IT IS LIKELY TO CONCENTRATE INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT 48 HOURS (.)
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH EAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA, PARTS OF SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA, SOUTH & WEST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL(.)
RIDGE LINE AT 200 hPa PASSES THROUGH LATITUDE 18.0° NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION(.)
salmon123 wrote:The low pressure area over westcentral Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast persists. Numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system may concentrate into a depression during next 24 hours.
BOB 05/2008/01 Dated : 25 October 2008
Time of issue: 1230 hours IST
Sub: Depression over West Central Bay of Bengal
Latest satellite imageries and observations from coastal stations, ships and buoys indicate that a depression has formed over west central Bay of Bengal and it lay centred at 0830 hours IST of today, the 25th October 2008, near lat. 16.50 N and Long. 86.50 E, about 370 km east-southeast of Visakhapatnam, 400 km south of Paradip and 700 km south-southwest of Kolkata. The system is likely to intensify further and move slowly in northerly direction initially.
Under its influence, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over north coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal areas of Orissa and west Bengal during next 2-3 days.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph are likely along and off north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa coasts during next 48 hours. Sea condition is rough to very rough along and off these coasts. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea.
DEMS–RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 25-10-2008
Tropical weather outlook for north Indian ocean (The bay of Bengal and Arabian sea) valid for next 24 hours issued at 0600 utc OF 25 OCTOBER, 2008 based on 0300 UTC of 25 OCTOBER 2008 (.)
YESTERDAY’S LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER west central bAY oF BENGAL concentrated into a depression and lay centred at 0300 utc of today, 25th october 2008 near lat. 16.50 n and long. 86.50 e about 370 km east-southeast of visakhpatnam, 400 km south of paradeep and 700 km south-southwest of kolkata.
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SATELLITE IMAGeRY INDICATES ORGANIsED convection and curved band pattern in associated with the system. the intensity of the system is t1.5. ASSOCIATED BROKEN INTENSE to very intense CONVECTION IS SEEN OVER bay of bengal between lat. 15.00 n to 18.00 n and between long. 83.00 e to 88.00 e.
sustained maximum winds speed is estimated to be about 25 to 30 knots. the state of the sea is rough to VERY rough around the system centre. the estimated CENTRAL pressure is about 1004 hpa. THE LOWEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE (CTT) DUE TO CONVECTION IS ABOUT -600C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF HORIZONTAL WIND OVER THE REGION IS 10 TO 20 KnoTS. SHEAR TENDENCY IS -5 TO -10 KnoTS TO NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM LIES CLOSE TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE, WHICH ROUGHLY RUNS ALONG 180N. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER THE REGION IS ABOUT 290 C.
CONSIDERING ALL THE ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER AND MOVE SLOWLY IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION INITIALLY.
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