ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Winds were recorded at 6:00 am 155 MPH on Cayman Brac but I am sure we will here even more later.

Reports of severe winds and serious damage from Cayman Brac on StormCarib. Sea washing through houses. That 111mph reading was faulty.

How do you know that?

[HURAKAN]

[CrazyC83]

Heading for Santa Cruz Cuba.

Same place obliterated on this day in 1932.

[cycloneye]

I just posted the latest message from Cayman Brac.Read it in the thread at the top of forum.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=103838&p=1847617#p1847617

[cycloneye]

Advisory at 4 PM EST has it at 125 kts.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 150SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

[CrazyC83]

Yep, based on 142 kt FL winds (which actually supports a 130 kt intensity, but the satellite signature would make that seem quite unlikely), and they went with the 124 kt SFMR as legitimate.

[CrazyC83]

PALOMA IS NOW THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN
NOVEMBER BEHIND LENNY OF 1999.

Actually that is not true based on pressure - the pressures of the major hurricanes in November:

1912 Hurricane #7 - 965mb (100 kt)
1932 Hurricane #10 - no official pressure, re-analysis estimate 915mb (140 kt)
1956 Greta - 970mb (120 kt) - most likely one or both is wrong, 120 kt in the subtropical Atlantic would be about 935-942mb
1985 Kate - 954mb (105 kt)
1999 Lenny - 933mb (135 kt)
2001 Michelle - 933mb (120 kt)

[fasterdisaster]

PALOMA IS NOW THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN
NOVEMBER BEHIND LENNY OF 1999.

Actually that is not true based on pressure - the pressures of the major hurricanes in November:

1912 Hurricane #7 - 965mb (100 kt)
1932 Hurricane #10 - no official pressure, re-analysis estimate 915mb (140 kt)
1956 Greta - 970mb (120 kt) - most likely one or both is wrong, 120 kt in the subtropical Atlantic would be about 935-942mb
1985 Kate - 954mb (105 kt)
1999 Lenny - 933mb (135 kt)
2001 Michelle - 933mb (120 kt)

Pressure does not do damage, the weather resulting from it does.

[HURAKAN]

PALOMA: PALs around with stronger hurricanes. Example, OMAr.

[Just Joshing You]

Paloma is running for her life now! Personal prediction, Cuba will receive Cat 1 sustained with Cat 2-3 gusts. Cloud tops are starting to warm a little.

Your prediction is going to be at least 2, possibly 3 categories off.

[jinftl]

Looking at the angle of approach to cuba...the area to the immediate right of landfall is going to have a huge storm surge...i pray that those in danger were evacuated to higher ground. NHC estimates of surge are 20-25'.

[Category 5]

The resemblance to Michelle is uncanny.

I pray for those in its path, this looks severe.

[jinftl]

Excerpt from Financial Times on Cuba after Gustav and Ike...

Just six months after President Raúl Castro officially took over from his ailing brother Fidel, two destructive hurricanes have left in ruins his promises to improve people's "material and spiritual lives".
In two short weeks hurricanes Gustav and Ike have left catastrophic destruction at both ends of the island, and ravaged most of what lies in between.

Strains were already appearing in Cuba's import-dependent economy before the storms. The government slowed investment and stopped debt payments to some countries and suppliers over the summer, asking for them to be restructured after the rise in fuel and food prices and a significant decline in nickel prices, the main export.

Not getting political here....all we can do is hope for the best for this storm-ravaged nation.

[CrazyC83]

The town that is Ground Zero will be Santa Cruz del Sur (population 50,000 in the municipality/county, looks to be about 10,000 in the city). Most of it is less than 15 feet above sea level. About 2,800 people were killed in the city in the 1932 hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

Really starting to weaken now - pressure up to 959mb (961 splashed in 20 kt winds).

[jinftl]

Can't see the surge risk diminishing...even if the winds come down some....a 20-25' foot is on its way to worst hit area

Really starting to weaken now - pressure up to 959mb (961 splashed in 20 kt winds).

[Blown Away]

Paloma is running for her life now! Personal prediction, Cuba will receive Cat 1 sustained with Cat 2-3 gusts. Cloud tops are starting to warm a little.

Your prediction is going to be at least 2, possibly 3 categories off.

We will see, hopefully I'm right for Cuba's sake. The NHC discounted the satellite presentation and kept Paloma at a Cat 4, she looks worse as the minutes go by. Let's see what kind of reports come out of Cuba after Paloma passes.

[jinftl]

People are forgetting that surge is the real killer....potential surge doesn't go down as fast as winds can in a weakening system and huge surge can still result from any cat storm....i.e, katrina and 'just a 2' ike

Paloma is running for her life now! Personal prediction, Cuba will receive Cat 1 sustained with Cat 2-3 gusts. Cloud tops are starting to warm a little.

Your prediction is going to be at least 2, possibly 3 categories off.

We will see, hopefully I'm right for Cuba's sake. The NHC discounted the satellite presentation and kept Paloma at a Cat 4, she looks worse as the minutes go by. Let's see what kind of reports come out of Cuba after Paloma passes.

[wyq614]

I'm in Cojimar, 10km east of Havana. Yesterday and this morning heavy rain was seen, but we have not experienced any storm winds. Now it seems to be still raining, but quite light.

[CrazyC83]

Storm surge comparison - in the 1932 storm, the surge which obliterated Santa Cruz del Sur (on a nearly identical track) was about 21 feet. It was a Category 4/5 before landfall, may have weakened but that didn't matter.