ATL: PALOMA - Tropical Depression - Discussion

[wxman57]

wxman57, the TAFB continues to show this low pretty much stationary through 72 hours. The models continue to jet 93L off to the N then NE, why is there such a discrepancy?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

It hasn't been stationary - it's moved nearly 2 degrees in 24 hours. Present movement is indicated at 6-7 kts on the latest model initialization. Note that graphic above shows a trof that's sort of oriented where the low will track. They're just not going to commit to any track until they have to, apparently. And they don't have to issue a track until it's a depression.

[Derek Ortt]

put a floater on it at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

[blp]

Finally starting to get some good convergence closer to the LLC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST WED NOV 5 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CONTINUES
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN

----------------------------

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED NOV 05 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS
DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF
PANAMA NEAR 9N81W TO A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW E OF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 14N82W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N78W. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-21N
BETWEEN 74W-84W. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 05 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS
GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N81W TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW E OF THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W TO 19N82W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-21N BETWEEN 73W-84W. THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR
NORTH.

[HURAKAN]

CODE RED

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 5 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 125 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON
THE BORDER OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THIS SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF
NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing right over the LLC.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

05/1145 UTC 14.1N 82.3W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic

Best Track 12z:

AL, 93, 2008110512, , BEST, 0, 135N, 815W, 25, 1006

[gatorcane]

code red as I expected -- likely an Omar-like redux with weak steering currrents then an ejection out to the NE well Southeast of Florida, however, threat to Cuba is high at this point.

[Derek Ortt]

now expect development, good chance of a hurricane it appears

no Florida threat

[hurricanefloyd5]

This i not a florida storm but it dose right now looks to be a TD forming soon.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

This looks to be a TD forming as we speak

[Sanibel]

Looks like the storm cut-off in September gave us a late Carribbean season.


Something activated the Florida Norton cyclone shield because Florida dodged everything (Edit: big) this year.

[Blown Away]

This i not a florida storm but it dose right now looks to be a TD forming soon

I agree, I could see 93L go rate to Paloma. Before we get to comfortable with the models, remember November storms have done some crazy things. I always like November storms, Gordon was a fun storm to track..

[hurricanefloyd5]

Looks like the storm cut-off in September gave us a late Carribbean season.


Something activated the Florida Norton cyclone shield because Florida dodged everything this year.

I diagree we had a storm to hit florida this year and her name is "FAY" or did you forget FAY.LOL

[Sanibel]

Bursting now:

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yea she is ready to roll now...I think we have a depression by 5PM...

[CaneMaster]

Actually Quite nice bursting with some pretty cold cloud tops there, I see the possible of this undergoind RI and Becoming Hurricane Paloma, IMO.......

[hurricanefloyd5]

I agree it could very well become a Hurricane

[Sanibel]

Looks like solid guidance: