NW Pacific ---Tropical Depression 01w

[Coredesat]

Corrected TCFA was issued, that "fair" should be a "good".

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 13N 119E WEST SLOWLY.

[cycloneye]

Looking better.

[HURAKAN]

Seems to be trying to wrap around as it reorganizes over the SCS.

[HURAKAN]

13/0230 UTC 12.5N 118.7E T1.5/1.5 90W -- West Pacific Ocean

[RL3AO]

If anyone cares, the first name is Noguri. It means Raccoon dog in Korean.

[Cyclenall]

It says "NONAME.01W" on the NRL. Do we have the first tropical cyclone of the northern hemisphere for 2008?

[Coredesat]

Officially, no. Remember, the JMA is the only official agency in this basin.

[Chacor]

Doesn't look great, I don't think JMA are anywhere close to upgrading this.

[Chacor]

That looks nothing like a TC.

[wyq614]

中国风迷不看好。

Chinese trackers don't think it will be upgraded.

[wyq614]

Now have become 01W. Noname

[P.K.]

Now an unwarned TD from RSMC Tokyo.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 13N 118E NW 10 KT

[Chacor]

I think we can safely say the JMA isn't going to be warning on this any time soon, if at all.

[HURAKAN]

Not bad.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 131200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 968 HPA
AT 52N 175E SEA AROUND ALEUTIANS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 25 KNOTS.
OCCLUDED FRONT FROM 52N 175E TO 51N 178E 50N 180E.
WARM FRONT FROM 50N 180E TO 49N 175W 47N 171W.
COLD FRONT FROM 50N 180E TO 47N 179W 45N 180E 44N 179E 37N 170E 32N
157E.
WINDS 30 TO 55 KNOTS WITHIN 1600 MILES OF LOW SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND
900 MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 55N 170E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 100
MILES RADIUS.
ANOTHER LOW 978 HPA AT 54N 163E
MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
GALE WARNING.
DEVELOPED LOW 986 HPA
AT 46N 157E SEA EAST OF KURILS MOVING EASTSOUTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
WINDS 30 TO 45 KNOTS WITHIN 1100 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE
AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE.
GALE WARNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 30 TO 40 KNOTS PREVAILING OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY
24N 124E 19N 122E 18N 114E 22N 114E 27N 120E 24N 124E.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA
AT 13.3N 117.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Chacor]

Still no full warnings, as expected.

[CrazyC83]

What was the last TC in January in the WPAC?

[Coredesat]

What was the last TC in January in the WPAC?

Severe Tropical Storm Kulap in 2005. It didn't affect land. There was also Tropical Storm Yanyan in 2003, which (if I recall correctly) didn't affect land either. The last one to affect land was Tropical Storm Tapah in 2002. Landfalling January storms are uncommon in the WPAC.

1992 had two storms in January if you count Ekeka (which crossed over from the CPAC; the other one was Typhoon Axel).

[HURAKAN]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2008JAN13 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 13:26:48 N Lon : 116:31:30 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 / 999.4mb/ 31.0kt

6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.1 2.2 2.3 2.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -13.5C Cloud Region Temp : -27.7C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.44 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 14:14:23 N Lon: 116:55:11 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF