NW Pacific ---Tropical Depression 01w

[wyq614]

位置：POSITION:
7.9N 129.7E
风力：WIND
15KT

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 06N 133E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Coredesat]

I've been seeing the models try and develop this system for the last couple days, they have it moving over the Philippines and strengthening in the South China Sea.

00Z CMC: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/39.html

00Z GFS: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/41.html and http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 00/69.html

00Z UKMO: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 00/16.html and http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 00/73.html

00Z NOGAPS: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGPT ... sloop.html

[Chacor]

846
TPPN10 PGTW 101225

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W (E OF LUZON)

B. 10/1130Z

C. 9.1N

D. 129.5E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS (10/1130Z)

G. IR/EIR

38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDS A 1.0 DT. PT AGREES. DBO DT. INITIAL

SCANLIN

[Coredesat]

Floater's on it.



If you're seeing Elisa, do a hard refresh.

[CrazyC83]

First Northern Hemisphere invest of 2008. Maybe the first storm as well?

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 06N 132E WEST SLOWLY.

659
WWPN20 KNES 101519

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90W)

B. 10/1430Z

C. 8.2N

D. 132.2E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WAVE ON MONSOON TROUGH WITH DISTANT CONVECTION...HOWEVER
FEEL IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BEGIN CLASSIFICATION....LIDDICK

=

[KWT]

I suspect this may well end up being the first named storm in the N.hemisphere in the year of 2008.
Convection does look rather spread out but its pretty deep at least though I've not seen the Sat.imagery so am not sure where abuts the center is in relation to all the convection.

[HURAKAN]

10/2330 UTC 7.4N 128.6E T1.5/1.5 90W -- West Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.4N 127.7E,
APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA OF STRONG
CONVECTION NEAR A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
THE LLCC IS EVIDENT IN A 102057Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE LLCC REMAINS
WEAK AND IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER A REGION OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FUELING CONVECTION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[HURAKAN]

11/0830 UTC 9.8N 126.5E T1.0/1.5 90W -- West Pacific Ocean

[Chacor]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 08N 128E WEST SLOWLY.

[Coredesat]

Would not be surprised to see PAGASA name this soon.

[HURAKAN]

Looks better.

[Coredesat]

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 09N 126E WNW 10 KT.

[HURAKAN]

Looks much better here.

[HURAKAN]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 124.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 124.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY
OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION TO INTERACTION
WITH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HINDERING
INTENSIFICATION DESPITE FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR THE
END OF THE ADVISORY VALID TIME, AT WHICH POINT CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARM
OPEN WATER, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO FAIR.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 121730
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.3N 121.0E TO 13.6N 114.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 121200Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 120.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-
WARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 131730Z.
//

[HURAKAN]

Not looking too good at this moment.

[HURAKAN]

Seems to be coming together: