Australia: Tropical Low (93P)

[Coredesat]

IDQ10810
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: This message is issued daily for the information of interested parties.
Media are NOT required to broadcast this message.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTLOOK
for the Coral Sea West of Longitude 160 East
Issued at 2:30pm on Monday the 14th of January 2008

The monsoon trough extends across the northern Coral Sea and across the base of
Cape York Peninsula. A broad tropical low, with the main centre 996 hPa
currently located near Innisfail, is slow moving. The system remains tilted in
the vertical in an area of moderate vertical shear, and this combined with the
proximity to land ensures that the system has a low probability of developing
into a tropical cyclone in the next two days. With the environment likely to
gradually improve by Thursday, the chances of development increase to moderate.

There are currently no other tropical disturbances in the Coral Sea.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

14/1530 UTC 18.5S 147.1E T1.5/1.5 93P -- South Pacific Ocean

To me it looks like a TC!

[KWT]

Wow thats some pretty deep convection near the coast, some really deep convection, no wonder theres been a heck of a lot of rain in Townsville!
Does look like a TC though will the fact its very close to the coast prevent them for upgrading?

[Coredesat]

Based on the loop, the center is just off the coast and is moving slowly to the SSE. Unless a more easterly motion materializes, the center will probably move back over land by late tomorrow.

[HURAKAN]

[Squarethecircle]

That's a TC. No doubt about it. Isn't Australia the only area where cyclones actually manage to retain characteristics well inland? If you look through some of the tracks, even in recent years...

[Chacor]

Remember that the BoM has a different definition of "tropical cyclone" compared to the NHC, i.e. it's different standards for upgrading.

[Coredesat]

IDQ20032
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland



TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Hazardous Winds and Flash Flooding.
For people in Herbert and Lower Burdekin District, the Northern Goldfields and
Upper Flinders.
Issued at 12:10 pm on Tuesday 15 January 2008

Synoptic Situation: A 995hPa low is located near Mingela on the Flinders Highway
between Townsville and Charters Towers and moving towards the southwest. Despite
being overland the system has intensified and may affect Charters Towers later
this afternoon.

Expect heavy rainfall near the low particularly on the western and southern
sides. Winds strong enough to bring down trees have been reported near the low
from a number of locations.

The State Emergency Service advises that people in the affected area should:

avoid driving, walking or riding through flood waters, secure loose objects,
move cars under cover and stay indoors if possible.

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.


The next warning is due to be issued by 3pm today.

[Chacor]

Completely inland.

[Coredesat]

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.1S 147.2E,
APPROXIMATELY 150 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 141917Z SSMI IMAGE INDICATES CURVED
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT. RECENT RADAR DATA FROM THE TOWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC OVER WATER LOCATED ABOUT 25 NM NORTHEAST OF TOWNSVILLE.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SLP NEAR 996 MB AND SURFACE WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 27 KNOTS, INCREASING IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS AS THE LLCC SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTHWARD. THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER AS WELL AS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ENHANCED BY A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. THE MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR IS INTER-
ACTION WITH LAND WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO HINDER SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.

If this doesn't move over water, it'll be one of the best-looking systems I've ever seen that formed and remained over land (except for a very brief time when the center was over water).

[P.K.]

Well they were warning of gusts to 125km/h earlier which would be cat 2 on the scale.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
CANCELLATION OF SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Flash Flooding and destructive winds.
For people in the southern Herbert and Lower Burdekin district, the Northern
Goldfields and Upper Flinders district east of Pentland, and the Central
Highlands and Coalfields district north of Moranbah.
Issued at 8:50 pm on Tuesday 15 January 2008

Synoptic Situation: A 990 hPa low is located east of Charters Towers and is
moving south southwest at 20 km/h.

Heavy rain has now eased and moved further inland, destructive winds gusts to
125 km/h have also decreased.

-
-

Contact the SES on 132 500 for emergency assistance if required.


No further warnings are expected to be issued for this event

[Coredesat]

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.1S
147.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0S 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER LAND OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS,
AS A RESULT THE SYSTEM HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Not sure I like that policy (the system still looks quite good), but whatever the case, it is now gone from NRL.